{"id":14479,"date":"2023-04-06T20:16:18","date_gmt":"2023-04-06T14:46:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/?p=14479"},"modified":"2023-04-06T20:21:08","modified_gmt":"2023-04-06T14:51:08","slug":"reconstruction-of-pakistan-with-indian-help-going-back-to-1958-atmosphere-of-indus-treaty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/?p=14479","title":{"rendered":"Reconstruction of Pakistan With Indian Help : Going Back To 1958 Atmosphere Of Indus Treaty"},"content":{"rendered":"

Reconstruction of Pakistan With Indian Help : Going Back To 1958 Atmosphere\u00a0 Of Indus Treaty<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rajiv Upadhyay\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Pakistan ,with its 130 billion dollar external debt, of which about 90 billion is due payment in next three years, is in no position to come out of looming economic bankruptcy even with IMF bail out. In addition, normally it has a current account deficit of about 20 billion dollars if all raw materials are supplied for industry and agriculture. The Sindh flood damage needs at least 10 billion dollars to restore agriculture and rehabilitate population safely. Experience has shown that inflation cannot be controlled without stablising Rupee – dollar exchange rate .( A Blue Print Of Re Building Pakistan : Will Any Leader Have The Courage To Face And Tell The Truth To Public . | Patriots Forum (patriotsforumindia.com)<\/a><\/p>\n

It finally involves at least fifty billion dollar investment in next five years apart from rescheduling of non IMF \/ World Bank Loans.<\/p>\n

In this part we will examine further the path needed to be taken . Neither USA nor Saudi Arabia nor UAE will fund this investment due to lack of trust ,donor fatigue and their pre occupation with their own problems . China has never systematically\u00a0 developed economy of any nation. It has generally bribed third world leaders and signed contracts detrimental to host countries including CPEC in Pakistan . Sino- Pakistan alliance is basically an anti Indian military alliance .<\/p>\n

So even India will not be interested in bailing out Pakistan the way it has done for Sri Lanka or Bangladesh . Yet\u00a0 India, ironically , is the only country that can take\u00a0 Pakistan out of trouble with a broad package discussed in the last article .<\/p>\n

After\u00a0 commissioning of Chabahar port, Pakistan has no real value for\u00a0 transit trade with India even, as\u00a0 Afghanistan is too unstable and risky for major investments. India – Iran – Russia route being developed is far safer. Pakistan as a nuisance creator in UN \/ SCO etc. will just be ignored as\u00a0 worthless for Indian response.Therefore there are only three options for big Indo Pak cooperation .<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Return to 2019\u00a0 Stage<\/strong> : Resumption of just trade of say two billion dollars will not attract India as it is too small to matter to make any shift in approach.<\/li>\n
  2. 2008 Stage<\/strong> : Gen Musharraf for all his faults, kept his word and stopped infiltration and cross border terrorism. This coupled with Zardari’s opening of trade except a list of 1200 prohibited items could be second stage from where India will try to mitigate shortages of commodities in Pakistan by supplying items from Wagah or Munabao border . But it will only be a short term palliative because Pakistan has no money to import raw materials for industry, fertilisers etc . India will not supply on credit as it will never be returned.<\/li>\n
  3. 1958 Stage<\/strong>: Negotiating<\/strong> Indus Water Treaty and\u00a0 Pursuit\u00a0 of The Path of<\/strong> Mutual Growth\u00a0<\/strong> .\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Pakistan became totally self sufficient in food only in 1970s . It would not have been possible without the Indus Water Treaty and subsequent construction of Mangla and Tarbela dam and\u00a0 expansion of canal network which also led to the rise of water table for two lakh tube wells. No foreign aid project has brought so much direct and indirect benefit to Pakistan although in India it is considered a sell out of two third of the water of the six\u00a0 rivers . CPEC in comparison is a real sell out of Pakistan’s interests by creating wasteful roads and ports of no real use to Pakistan but out of huge and costly Chinese loans . Zardari and Nawaz’s unilateral peace overtures with India lead to Mumbai and Pathankot. So one need to proceed with caution.<\/li>\n
  4. So why would India risk its\u00a0 money in developing a belligerent Pakistan?<\/li>\n
  5. It will not!<\/li>\n
  6. But if accompanied by real , durable and visible change of heart in both military and population, to return to real roots , Saudi Arabia , UAE along with Russia may do so if India plans ,executes and operate the projects and gives monetary guaranty as it has given to IMF for loans for Sri Lanka.<\/li>\n
  7. If back to 1958 spirit of seeking mutual growth , path it could be as below :<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    1. India to be given duty free access to Pakistani market at par with China. India to supply seeds , fertiliser,\u00a0 pesticide for the next\u00a0 two crops\u00a0 at Indian subsidised rates as direct loan to farmers on yield\u00a0 sharing basis .Loan\u00a0 to be repaid before next crop.<\/p>\n

    2. India to extend FCI type grain storage\u00a0 facility ,\u00a0 minimum price support for wheat,cotton,oil seed , dals and paddy crops also at Indian rates. This will increase productivity and make repayment\u00a0 easier . Help in controlling food inflation by supplying\u00a0 short supply items from India at Indian rates but Pakistan has to control smuggling.<\/p>\n

    3. Restart all textile mills by supplying raw materials including electricity , gas on\u00a0 Indian rates as loan to be returned from sales proceeds .<\/p>\n

    4. Steel Mill and PIA to be taken over without staff or\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 liabilities and to be turned into profitable enterprise. Needs to be done with a\u00a0 parliament resolution to keep courts and\u00a0 NAB\u00a0 out which had killed the earlier attempts.<\/p>\n

    5.\u00a0 Thar coal and cement production to be doubled for\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0export . Boilers based on imported coal and furnace oil to be\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0converted if technically and economically feasible. India to buy surplus cement , steel, coal , cotton cloth , fruits , vegetables, ghee etc .<\/p>\n

    India to assist in setting\u00a0 up ancilliary units and factories with guaranteed buy back. Indian FDI to be given ten year tax holiday duty free imports and free land with power and water connection as being done in India at present.<\/p>\n

    6. Large scale minerals , oil and gas exploration based on assured commercial return to be undertaken .\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a07.India to construct four or five large dams for power\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 generation\u00a0 on Indus river in India . This will help in\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 draught years and flood control in Pakistan without any\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0expenditure . Also due to climate change it is very essential due to changing rain pattern.<\/p>\n

    8. Irrigation in Sindh, KP and Balochistan to be increased by construction of Kalabagh dam and barrages but owned and\u00a0 supervised by\u00a0 World Bank for twenty years for ensuring fair distribution of water and electricity between provinces . Punjab has benefitted already enormously from Mangla and Tarbela dam and diversion of funds from East Pakistan and Baluchistan for creating Islamabad and other projects.<\/p>\n

    9. Lahore – Karachi rail route to be upgraded to 22.5 tonne axle load and 26 coach passenger trains.<\/p>\n

    10.Indian telecom, media\u00a0 and other companies to be permitted operation in Pakistan. Indian Railway to run trains on revenue sharing basis .<\/p>\n

    Even if it looks favoring India but in reality it is a very risky investment for India and associates due to very adverse ground\u00a0 conditions in Pakistan.<\/p>\n

    It needs very sober leaders with trusted record and who do not have to play to gallery for public support. Indian PM Narendra Modi can do it if convinced of sincerity this time .<\/p>\n

    Can some one do it in Pakistan ?<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Reconstruction of Pakistan With Indian Help : Going Back To 1958 Atmosphere\u00a0 Of Indus Treaty… more »<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8874,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,3,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-2","category-economy","category-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14479"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14479\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14483,"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14479\/revisions\/14483"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}