{"id":1774,"date":"2013-05-09T10:49:05","date_gmt":"2013-05-09T05:19:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/?p=1774"},"modified":"2013-05-09T11:04:56","modified_gmt":"2013-05-09T05:34:56","slug":"%e0%a4%9a%e0%a5%80%e0%a4%a8-%e0%a4%a8%e0%a5%87-%e0%a4%b9%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%82-%e0%a4%95%e0%a5%8d%e0%a4%af%e0%a5%8b%e0%a4%82-%e0%a4%a7%e0%a4%ae%e0%a4%95%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%af%e0%a4%be-%e0%a4%aa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/?p=1774","title":{"rendered":"\u091a\u0940\u0928 \u0928\u0947 \u0939\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0927\u092e\u0915\u093e\u092f\u093e- \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0935\u0940\u0923 \u0938\u094d\u0935\u093e\u092e\u0940 : Why China picked a fight with India"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940 \u090f \u092a\u0940 \u091c\u094b\u0936\u0940 \u0926\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0930\u093e \u0930\u093e\u0937\u094d\u091f\u094d\u0930 \u0939\u093f\u0924 \u092e\u0948\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0937\u093f\u0924<\/p>\n

\u091a\u0940\u0928 \u0928\u0947 \u0939\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0938\u0902\u0926\u0947\u0936 \u0926\u0947\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0915\u094b\u0936\u093f\u0936 \u0915\u0940 ?<\/p>\n

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Border crisis ends: Why China picked a fight with India<\/h1>\n

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\u00a0\"CHINESE<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n

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From 264BCE to 146BCE, the greatest war the world had until then known<\/a> raged across the Mediterranean rim, as the imperial armies of Rome and Carthage battled for supremacy. Flanked by the sea and the Alps, Liguria resisted Rome\u2019s legions\u2014protected, the chronicler Julius Frontinus recorded<\/a>, \u201cnot only by its location and siege-works, but also by the superiority of its defenders\u201d. Faced with this insurmountable challenge, the Roman commander took to \u201cmarching frequently round the walls with all his forces, and then back to camp\u201d.<\/p>\n

His actions were a ruse. \u201cWhen the townspeople had been induced by this routine to believe that the Roman commander did this for the purpose of drill,\u201d Frontius wrote, \u201che transformed this practice of parading into a sudden attack, and gaining possession of the walls, forced the inhabitants to surrender.\u201d<\/p>\n

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A Chinese naval warship. AFP\"Chinese<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Liguria\u2019s fateful deception casts light on the dilemmas that confront India\u2019s strategic establishment, as it debates the lessons of the face-off on Daulat Beg Oldi<\/a>. The crisis ended on Sunday evening<\/a>, as suddenly as it had begun, with troops from both countries agreeing to fall back to the positions they earlier held. National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon argues that the genesis of the crisis lies in India\u2019s display of <\/a>muscle: new fortifications, border airstrips and force-expansion. India\u2019s military insists China\u2019s own growth has left it no choice.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s People\u2019s Liberation Army has sent out a simple message by its occupation of territory lying inside India<\/a>: in return for quiet on the border, it wants India to back off its ongoing borders build-up. India fears the quiet could precede an unpleasant awakening. There\u2019s no actual evidence, muttering notwithstanding, that a deal on this larger question defused the Daulat Beg Oldi crisis. There\u2019s no doubt, either, that the question will acquire a key role in China-India talks to come<\/a>.\"Chinese<\/a><\/p>\n

India\u2019s fundamental problem is this: ever since 1997, China\u2019s military modernisation has been dramatic, with budgets increasing over 10% year-on-year. Last year, the New Delhi-based Institute of Defence and Strategic Analysis\u2019 Namrata Goswami flagged<\/a> the PLA\u2019s growing rapid-deployment capacities in Tibet. She noted new airfields had been built, and $325 billion invested in roads.<\/p>\n

This is just part of China\u2019s growing capacities. In the 1990s, China\u2019s indigenous defence industry consistently produced low-quality equipment technologically 15-20 years behind the state-of-the-art. Now, China\u2019s military industries produces the J10 fighter, similar or superior to the United States-made F-16C\/D<\/a>; the Yuan-class diesel-electric submarine, the Type-052C destroyer\u2014all pretty much in the same quality bracket as similar western equipment. Perhaps China\u2019s most impressive achievement has been the Dong Feng-21D anti-ship ballistic missile<\/a>, which threatens the United States\u2019 historic supremacy in the Western Pacific.<\/p>\n

Even for the United States, these are significant challenges. In its latest annual report on China\u2019s naval capacities<\/a>, the Congressional Research Service notes that the United States\u2019 2014-2043 plans do \u201cnot include enough ships to fully support all elements of the Navy\u2019s 306-ship goal\u201d. This, it observes, could \u201cmake it harder for the United States to defend its interests in the region\u201d.<\/p>\n

This said, it\u2019s important to keep Chinese military modernisation in perspective. The United States estimates<\/a> barely 25 percent of the PLA\u2019s fighter aircraft, 25 percent of its surface combatants, 40 percent of its surface-to- air missiles, and 55 percent of its submarines are modern. Even the J-10 fighter jet or the Yuan-class submarines represent 1980s technologies. PLA ground forces are still equipped with old or obsolete weaponry; only about a third of its 7,500 main battle tanks, for example, are relatively modern Type-96s and Type-99s. Expert Richard Blitzinger notes<\/a> China still possesses \u201cwestern armaments producers continue to outpace China\u201d.<\/p>\n

In the grand scheme of things, moreover, United States still remains the world\u2019s military powerhouse. China\u2019s budget is a small fraction<\/a> of the superpower\u2019s spending, hovering moreover at just over 2 percent of GDP. The United States has spent higher than 4 percent of GDP for the past five years. China\u2019s fears of India also seem overblown. India\u2019s military expenditure has grown<\/a>, but, it spent just $44.28 billion in 2011-2012, against China\u2019s $129.27 billion. India\u2019s military expenditure has actually declined from a peak of 3.1 percent of GDP in 1999, to 2.7 percent in 2010.<\/p>\n

Making sense of this spending needs understanding of what\u2019s actually driving it. There\u2019s one strategic reason China arming itself, and it isn\u2019t love of mountain air. China\u2019s self-sufficiency in oil ended back in 1993, and the country relies on imports for 50 percent of its needs. In 2015, that figure will be 60-70 percent.<\/p>\n

Like all great powers, China fears other great powers\u2014and is preparing itself for the prospect it might have to fight them for its share. Energy analyst Chris Nedler recently warned<\/a> that the \u201cnet energy available to society has been declining radically\u201d. For years now, China used national oil companies to stitch up oil reserves where it can find them\u2014and each of those assets, along with the routes linking them to China\u2019s ports, may need defending. Even though experts like John Lee have argued<\/a> global commodities markets can serve China\u2019s energy security ends better than geostrategic coercion, paranoia drives nations just as it does individuals.<\/p>\n

China sees India as a competitor for oil, and a potential ally of other adversaries, like the United States, Japan and Australia. Though war doesn\u2019t serve China\u2019s economic interests, any more than it does India, its growing western neighbour is thus part of a nightmare mosaic.<\/p>\n

Is the nightmare likely? In a seminal lecture delivered in 2011<\/a>, the scholar Kanti Bajpai suggested this military competition wouldn\u2019t end in war. He pointed to the difficulties in destroying the Indian air force, necessary to secure China\u2019s logistics; the robust defensive positions occupied by India\u2019s army in the Himalayas; China\u2019s limited naval capacities; its internal conflicts\u2014and, above all, the risk of a nuclear conflagration. Bajpai concluded by asserting that war \u201cis not very likely unless one or the other engages in highly provocative, ill-judged behaviour\u201d.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no doubt, though that ill-judged provocation does happen\u2014and that\u2019s just what China, India, and every other country on the planet has militaries for.<\/p>\n

Ever since 2010, when former Army Chief Deepak Kapoor spoke of preparing for a potential two-front war<\/a>, the question is just what the likely contours of a conflict might be. Last year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute stated that India had become the world\u2019s largest importer of arms<\/a> in 2007-2011; China held top position in 2002-2006. Military strategists argue that armies need to prepare for possible wars, not just predictable ones. This proposition isn\u2019t as robust as it seems: no nation has infinite resources\u2014and almost any kind of war is imaginable.<\/p>\n

In 266 BCE, the armies of Emperor Antigonus II Gonatas laid siege to Megara, hoping to seize the small, but wealthy, city\u2019s harbours. The contest was, at first glance, hopeless: Antigonus\u2019s armies were much larger and backed, moreover, by phalanxes of battle-elephants. Faced with certain defeat, the ancient historian Polyaenus recorded<\/a>, the Megarans hit upon a tactic of considerable genius. The city\u2019s pigs were doused in resin and set on fire as they were pushed out of the gates. Panicked by the sight of the burning, squealing pigs, the elephants broke ranks and fled, trampling many of Antigonus\u2019 army. The lesson is simple: in war, the big guy doesn\u2019t always win.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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