![\"rp_RKU-150x150.jpg\"](\"https:\/\/patriotsforumindia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/RKU-150x150.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Great Thaw of America’s North Is Coming<\/p>\n
bbc.com\/future\/story\/20171016-the-great-thaw-of-americas-north-is-coming<\/p>\n
One of the most profound effects of a warming world is underway on US soil \u2013 the impact will force thousands to relocate, and have far-reaching, global consequences. Sara Goudarzi reports from Alaska.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
- \n
- By Sara Goudarzi<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
16 October 2017<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\nVladimir Romanovsky walks through the dense black spruce forest with ease. Not once does he stop or slow down to balance himself on the cushy moss beneath his feet insulating the permafrost.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a warm day in July, and the scientist is looking for a box that he and his team have installed on the ground. It\u2019s hidden nearly six miles (10km) north of the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, where he\u2019s a professor of geophysics and heads the Permafrost Laboratory.<\/p>\n
The box, which is covered by tree branches, contains a data collector connected to a thermometer installed below ground for measuring permafrost temperature at different depths. Permafrost is any earth material that remains at or below 0C (32F) for at least two consecutive years.<\/p>\n
Romanovsky connects his laptop to the data collector to transfer the temperature data for this location \u2013 called Goldstream III \u2013 which he will later add to an online database<\/a> accessible to both scientists and interested individuals.<\/p>\n
\n![\"Vladimir](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gj1.jpg\" "\\"Vladimir")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nVladimir Romanovsky crouches as he collects temperature recordings beneath the forest floor (Credit: Anthony Rhoades)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cPermafrost is defined on the basis of temperature, the parameter that characterises its stability,\u201d Romanovsky says.<\/p>\n
The thaw is deepening and expanding, causing the permafrost underneath to become less stable<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
When the temperature of permafrost is below 0C (32F), for example -6C (21F), it is considered stable and will take a long time to thaw or to change. If it’s close to 0C, however, it’s considered vulnerable.<\/p>\n
Every summer the portion of soil overlaying the permafrost, called the active layer, thaws, before refreezing the following winter. At Goldstream III, on this July day, the summer thaw currently ends at 50cm depth.<\/p>\n
As the Earth warms and summer temperatures climb, the thaw is deepening and expanding, causing the permafrost underneath to become less stable.<\/p>\n
\n![\"Darker](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gfy.jpg\" "\\"Darker")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nDarker soil indicates accumulated organic carbon in the soil (Credit: Anthony Rhoades)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
The consequences, if this thawing continues, will be profound, for Alaska \u2013 and for the world. Nearly 90% of the state is covered in permafrost, which means entire villages will need to be relocated, as the foundations of buildings and roads crumble. And if this frozen cache releases the millennia of accumulated carbon it has locked within, it could accelerate the warming of our planet \u2013 far beyond our ability to control it.<\/p>\n
A vulnerable state<\/strong><\/p>\n
As permafrost thaws, houses, roads, airports and other infrastructure built on the frozen ground can crack and even collapse.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are seeing some increased maintenance on existing roads over permafrost,\u201d says Jeff Currey, materials engineer for Northern Region of the Alaska Department of Transportation Public Facilities. \u201cOne of our maintenance superintendents recently told me his folks are having to patch settling areas on the highways he’s responsible for more frequently than they were 10 or 20 years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n
- \n
- There are diseases hidden in the ice, and they are waking up<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- \n
- Miami\u2019s fight against rising seas<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- \n
- How climate change will transform business<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Similarly, infrastructure built underground \u2013 such as those for utilities \u2013 is suffering as temperatures rise.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Point Lay \u2013 on the coast in northwest Alaska \u2013 for instance, they’re having all sorts of trouble with their water and sewer lines buried in permafrost soil,\u201d says William Schnabel, director of the Water & Environmental Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. \u201cThe permafrost soil has thawed and we get water and line breaks because the ground shifts.\u201d<\/p>\n
The concern is even more pronounced for those living in rural areas who don’t have enough funds to combat the effects of thawing permafrost. For those residents it’s not just about collapsing buildings, which is common now, but also water supply.<\/p>\n
\n![\"Permafrost](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gv8.jpg\" "\\"Permafrost")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nPermafrost is any earth material that remains at or below 0C for at least two consecutive years (Credit: Alamy)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Often as permafrost thaws on the side of a lake that a village might use as water supply, there\u2019s a breach and a lateral drain occurs. \u201cIt usually requires pretty expensive infrastructure to take water from a lake, bring it to a village and store it and all the components of this infrastructure are vulnerable to thawing permafrost,\u201d Romanovsky says.<\/p>\n
If a village depends on an affected lake for water, the community members would have to move their infrastructure and sometimes their entire village to another lake, which can be very costly.<\/p>\n
Villages like Kivalina in Alaska will have to move within the next 10 years<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
According to research conducted by US Geological Survey, villages like Kivalina in north-west Alaska will have to move within the next 10 years, Romanovsky explains. \u201cBut estimates show cost of moving is about $200m (\u00a3150m) per village of 300 people.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n![\"Sensor](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gng.jpg\" "\\"Sensor")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nSensor readings from the soil indicate significant change is underway (Credit: Anthony Rhoades)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Those kinds of sums are only possible with federal government funding \u2013 but there are also no guarantees that a new location wouldn\u2019t be affected eventually too.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think by now there are 70 villages who really have to move because of thawing permafrost,\u201d Romanovsky says. \u201cBut moving villages to another location on permafrost is very difficult to guarantee for 30 years or so and the federal government doesn’t want to pay for something they have to pay for again.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s possible that building Alaskan settlements on permafrost may also be making the problem worse. \u201cWhen you think about water and sewers you have to keep those above freezing and when you have permafrost you have to keep that below freezing,\u201d Schnabel says. \u201cSo you’re running relatively warm water through the permafrost and there’s going to be some heat dissipation in there.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n![\"As](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gfd.jpg\" "\\"As")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nAs the settlement of Kwigillingok thaws, infrastructure is crumbling (Credit: Alamy)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Similarly, when a road is built, a lot of the vegetation that insulates the permafrost is cleared and then paved over with black covering that increases the amount of absorbed solar radiation. So although the maintenance burden has increased for those like Currey, not all the distress that comes with infrastructure can be solely attributed to a changing climate.<\/p>\n
Defrosting a freezer full of carbon <\/strong><\/p>\n
Alaska, no doubt, is on the front lines of climate change, but the issues related to permafrost aren\u2019t just specific to The Last Frontier. What happens to the frozen earth material in the 49th state will affect the lower 48, as well as the entire globe.<\/p>\n
According to Romanovsky, half of the state\u2019s and 90% of interior Alaska\u2019s permafrost will thaw if there\u2019s a global average rise of 2C in air temperature.<\/p>\n
This is especially worrying because an enormous amount of organic carbon is sequestered in permafrost and the overlaying active layer. Since there\u2019s not enough heat in frozen soil to help microbes to decompose dying vegetation, over thousands of years organic matter has accumulated in permafrost. Some estimates say the amount of carbon in the permafrost is more than two times than there is in atmospheric carbon dioxide.<\/p>\n
\n![\"Vladimir](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gf9.jpg\" "\\"Vladimir")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nVladimir Romanovsky in the Permafrost Laboratory at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks (Credit: Anthony Roades)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cIf we maintain our current course of operation, business as usual they call that, then it’s pretty certain by 2100 a significant fraction of the permafrost in the upper five metres would thaw out and with it all the organic matter that is currently frozen in the permafrost,\u201d says Kevin Schaefer, a research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado. \u201cThat would indicate a release of carbon dioxide and methane, which would amplify the warming due to the burning of fossil fuels.\u201d<\/p>\n
If this carbon is released, the amount of CO2 will be three times more than what is in in the atmosphere now<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
In fact, in a 2012 report<\/a> published in the journal Nature, Schaefer and his co-authors indicated that past sudden warming events were essentially triggered by the release of carbon dioxide and methane from permafrost some 50 million years ago in Antarctica.<\/p>\n
And the projected numbers don\u2019t look promising: \u201cTheoretically if this carbon is released to the atmosphere, the amount of CO2 will be three times more than what is in there [in the atmosphere] now,\u201d says Romanovsky.<\/p>\n
So it’s a true feedback loop as it amplifies the warming due to the burning of fossil fuels. And despite the fact that the warming is accelerating, the feedback effects will be gradual, taking time to be noticeable. \u201cIt’s a very slow feedback,\u201d Schaefer says. \u00a0\u201cImagine trying to steer a steam ship with a canoe paddle, that’s the kind of feedback we’re talking about.\u201d<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, once permafrost starts to thaw, it\u2019ll be hard to refreeze it again \u2013 at least in our lifetime. Furthermore, once the decay is out of the ground and into the atmosphere, there\u2019s no easy way to put that carbon back into the ground.<\/p>\n
\n![\"Denali](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gjs.jpg\" "\\"Denali")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nAt Denali National Park & Preserve, warming has begun to affect wildlife (Credit: Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cThe only way to do that would be to lower the global temperature and refreeze the permafrost, which would mean you’re removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,\u201d Schaefer says.<\/p>\n
Climate models show that current intergovernmental commitments to reduce warming \u2013 as laid out by the Paris Climate Accord \u2013 may not be enough, Romanovsky explains.<\/p>\n
In a 2016 report published in Nature Climate Change<\/a>, researchers Sarah Chadburn<\/p>\n
and colleagues estimate that even if the climate was stabilised as agreed upon by the 196 parties in 2015, \u201cthe permafrost area would eventually be reduced by over 40%\u201d.<\/p>\n
However, with US President Donald Trump\u2019s announcement of withdrawal from the Paris agreement last June, more permafrost loss is likely on the horizon.<\/p>\n
The blame game<\/strong><\/p>\n
Alaska is a politically conservative state, so outsiders might assume that residents reject the idea that the planet is warming beyond our control. The truth is more complex.<\/p>\n
According to a poll<\/a> of 750 participants conducted earlier this year by the Alaska Dispatch News, more than 70% of Alaskans are concerned about the effects climate change.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Alaska anybody you ask will say \u2018yes there’s warming,\u2019\u201d Romanovsky says. \u201cThe farther north you go, northwest especially, the stronger that feeling. Because it’s happening, you see it. Of course, the question of who’s responsible depends on political beliefs.\u201d<\/p>\n
At Denali National Park & Preserve, park ranger Anna Moore has witnessed warming affect wildlife across only a couple of years. She\u2019s noticed that the Arctic hare, which switches between brown and white coat colours with the seasons can\u2019t seem to keep up with the changes as a result of temperature rise, essentially putting itself at risk.<\/p>\n
\u201c<\/strong>In the wintertime they get white tips to their hair,\u201d Moore says. \u201cAs it gets warmer, the snow is melting faster, but their bodies are acclimatised to certain temperature change and so even though the snow is already melting they’re still white and in more danger from predators.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n![\"The](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gp8.jpg\" "\\"The")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nThe arctic hare is finding it harder to blend in as the ice melts, according to park rangers (Credit: Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Moore says though she believes in climate change and is watching it affect flora and fauna at the park, she considers it a result of both human activities and a natural cycle.<\/p>\n
Her colleague Ashley Tench also echoes the sentiment: \u201cI agree with her [on] how it’s part man-made and also natural.\u201d To that effect, Tench doesn\u2019t believe the United States\u2019 pullout of the Paris Agreement makes a difference in the climate.<\/p>\n
But not everyone in Alaska is on board with that sentiment. To Bill Beaudoin, a retired submariner and educator who\u2019s now the proprietor of a bed and breakfast in Fairbanks, it\u2019s obvious that humans are to blame and that we should work on reversing the effects of our actions.<\/p>\n
People are worried, because of course there’s no insurance for thawing permafrost<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u201cI think the Paris climate accord was necessary,\u201d he says. \u201cIn fact, I didn’t think [it was] enough. There’s one country, Nigeria, that didn’t sign on to the agreement because they didn\u2019t think it was strong enough. I would probably side with Nigeria on that issue.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n![\"Bill](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gdz.jpg\" "\\"Bill")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\n“The Paris climate accord was necessary. In fact, I didn’t think [it was] enough” – Bill Beaudoin, Alaska resident (Credit: Anthony Rhoades)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
No matter who is to blame for the warming and resulting thaw of permafrost, Alaskans are for the most part concerned about their future.<\/p>\n
\u201cPeople are worried, because of course there’s no insurance for thawing permafrost,\u201d Romanovsky says. \u201cInsurance is not covering damage from permafrost like it does in California for earthquakes.\u201d<\/p>\n
Back at Goldstream III, Romanovsky notes that at 50cm depth, the temperature of the soil is -0.04C (31.9F). At one metre it\u2019s -0.23C (31.5F).\u00a0 The last time he checked the data was in March, where at one metre, the soil temperature measured -1.1C (30F).<\/p>\n
He takes his shovel and makes a hole in the ground to look at the soil and check for carbon within. Darker soil indicates accumulated organic carbon. The further down he digs, the colder the soil gets. Romanovsky digs until the shovel hits the permafrost and seemingly can\u2019t go any further.<\/p>\n
\n![\"The](\"http:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/wwfeatures\/wm\/live\/624_351\/images\/live\/p0\/5k\/2g\/p05k2gl6.jpg\" "\\"The")
<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n\n\nResearchers at the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks are monitoring long-term temperature changes (Credit: Anthony Rhoades)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
He pushes down a bit more and manages to dig up a bit of the permafrost \u2013 about the size of a small coin. Seconds after he holds the frozen soil between his fingers it melts as if it were an ice cube. He returns the dug up dirt back into the hole, disconnects his laptop from the data collector, closes up the box and covers it up with branches and packs up to leave the site. In a week he\u2019ll head up north to log the temperature at other sites adding yet more data to one of the most comprehensive permafrost databases in the world.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, bit by bit, America\u2019s frozen north is thawing and what happens next is unknown. What\u2019s certain is the great thaw will forever change a once-familiar landscape \u2013 and likely a planet and its inhabitants too.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Readers may read the article below for knowing the type of research being done in… more
- How climate change will transform business<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Miami\u2019s fight against rising seas<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- There are diseases hidden in the ice, and they are waking up<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n