Trump and India : We Should Quickly and Proactively Create Opportunitues by Marrying Trumponomics with Manmohanomics and Common Defence Perspectives
Like PM Modi , Donald Trump has won the elections by promising rapid economic growth and job creation to his voters who were frustrated and angry by America’s continuous decline . As PM Modi has learnt to his chagirn by the lack of industrial growth in India in last three years that the laws of economics do not follow the ‘ Mood of Voters ‘ and good politics does not make good economics . Like our MNREGA and Food Security bill , Trump may find it difficult to eliminate OBAMACARE , however wasteful it may be . But like PM Modi Trump too will have to face voters after four years and cannot fail to deliver on job creation and economic growth .
Trump hope of copying Roosvelt’s ‘ New Deal ‘ by paying people to dig holes and fill it’ is not likely to be successful .He cannot spend on infrastructure limitlessly and may need China’s support for containing inflation and higher oil price for Saudi finances . Similarly outsourcing is a need of MNCs and taxing them will only reduce their competitiveness internationally . So like PM Modi , Trump too may discover that there are no economic quick fixes . If unsuccessful he may become an economic reactionary or an international bully for 2020 elections .
India needs to plan now and plan big ! Here is our window of opportunity if we can handle it well .
Ayub Khan , as explained in Husain Haquani’s book ‘Magnificent Delusions ‘ , charmed US by personal conduct , played on its fears and wishes but extracted its aid without surrendering an inch of Pakistan’s interest . We do not have to copy him but can learn from his success . As a big responsible country looking for a long term relationship with USA we should proactively create new ‘ Win – Win ‘ proposals which will help both the countries but get us what we need for rapid economic development . Both PM Modi and President Trump have similar characteristics and objectives .This commonality can be our great liability or great asset depending on how we conduct our self in these eight years .
Some helpful steps could be as below .
1. As demonstrated by our success in Afghanistan , India could be a low cost solution to preserve American global supremacy in security.
America should give us defence aid and technology like Israel and Egypt . We should be willing for being a real bridge between Putin and Trump
by persuading Trump into giving up American resistance to Russian supremacy in Ex USSR nations contiguous to Russia but not Poland etc . Assad can be left in Syria as he cannot be a threat to USA now and it will make Russia happy enough to give some thing in bargain in Europe .We could make a bold offer of taking over the aging naval fleet of US before condemnation and run it for say eight more years in Andaman base . India used WW2 condemned machinery including locomotives for many years . It will be a low cost solution for US for preserving its Defence Supremacy and simultaneously spending big money on infrastructure .
3. India should be a destination of manufacture of F- 22 Raptor and F-35 for exports . US costs are too high for European as well as other countries .Same could be done for missiles, nuclear power plants etc too .
4. US cannot reverse shift of manufacturing to China and Software to India due to their cost advantage . India has to guard against artificial intelligence and Robotics reducing jobs in software by proactively searching a more win – win ventures for USA by offeing new areas of mutual growth say in promoting universal use of artificial intelligence with the help of Indain software companies .
5. Middle East should to be persuaded to have more Indian Expatriates by leveraging our oil purchase if world moves into energy surplus era . Simalrly Europe should buy more of our textlies . Why should Bangladeshis and Pakistanis be there all over the world in such great numbers . We have to pay for US imports and they ( SAARC) should buy from us . Government should be only a facilitator for these ends .
6. Pakistan is a threat to world peace . Its duplicitous army will continue to promote terrorists organisations and align with China for survival removing democratic leadersby coup . China will support Pakistani army over civilian democracy for CPEC . America has to be incentivised for promoting break up of Pakistan and elimination of possible nuclear terrorism in the larger interest of humanity . India must in turn open dialogue with Talibans in Afghanistan to make the USA’s presence even more token there say one thousand soldiers .
PM Modi has hopefully learnt that the pompous Indian Babus have not been able to deliver the elusive industrial growth inspite of his full backing . It is a a task far beyond them due to their lack of any real expertise . They should be kept away from this ‘ Trumponomics – Manmohanomics’ project as if around , they habitually meddle and spoil even the most vital projects for ego and service supremacy considerations .
PM Modi should quickly find his new ‘ Economics’ Ajit Doval ‘ , bold , dynamic , completely familiar with US economy and industry and its mindset but also having a Chankayan mind .
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