Can Nawaz Sharif Reset Indo – Pak Relations to 1960’s Indus Water Treaty Days : No Incrementalism But Total Reset
Rajiv Upadhyay 
Nawaz Sharif upon return, in his first Minar-e- Pakistan Rally, insisted on good relations with Neighbours. General Bajwa too had insisted on normalising Indo – Pak relations. General Kayani also at the end of his tenure had realised the need for normalcy in Indo – Pak relations as India was not a real enemy of Pakistan . General Pervez Musharraf , the author of the utterly wasteful Kargil war, too had gone farthest in normalising relations with India by attempt at solving the Kashmir problem. So there is a general consensus on normal relations with India except for some extremists clamouring for Gazwa e hind !
Unfortunately Nawaz Sharif was punished for coming to New Delhi on Modi’s inaugural oath ceremony much against the wishes of Pakistan army.
An important question now is that using the present atmosphere in Pakistan , should Nawaz just restore trade ties which were blocked by Imran Khan on Kashmir ‘s article 370 issue, quite unnecessarily and with high cost to Pak economy or go beyond and finish what Gen Pervez Musharraf had started ? My suggestion is that Nawaz should be bold and convince army to reset ties to Ayub Khan’s 1960 Indus Water Treaty Year and not just go for a part solution of incremental approach by say opening trade than easing travel etc in Zardari / Hina Rabbani Khar days style.
The risk is that Mumbai 26/11 was staged just because Zardari stated no first use nuclear policy which the army just not wanted. Zardari never crossed the army line again . Nawaz had tried avoiding mention of Kashmir in one joint declaration but Uri and Pathankot incidents were staged just to put PM Modi Lahore Visit in waste paper basket just like Vajpayee’s Lahore Bus Yatra .
So unless army is on board , India’s primary concern about ending support to cross border Terrorism can not be delivered by any civilian government . Even Pak army can not control many terrorist groups which have independent finance sources . But if Nawaz and army are together than India can not get a better opportunity . Effort for lasting peace is always worth as one day it may succeed thus allowing both governments to focus on welfare of people.
So why I insist on 1960 as the reset point ?
Indus Water Treaty was the highest point of Indo – Pak diplomacy . The leaders of the two nations had the vision to bury the differences on Kashmir issue and deliver an agreement which has survived three wars and sixty years of rumblings in our journey .
The deterioration in Indo – Pak relations in 1965 was just an inadvertent consequence of popular protests against rigging of elections against Fatimah Jinnah by General Ayub Khan . The 1965 war was only a perceived way of restoring credibility and mass appeal of Gen Ayub Khan . A civilian president would have devised some radical subsidy based welfare schemes but an army general could only perceive a winning a war for getting same results . In this, a then young Ayub’s Chamcha foreign minister Z.A.Bhutto, also led Ayub Khan to the golden path but deserted him after the inevitable debacle in Lahore sector and subsequent Tashkent agreement . 
Once the Pakistan army discovered the value of the Kashmir card to survive in power it never gave it up and may not do it even now.
So why should I support recalibrating ties to 1960 level ? Because that is the normal desired level of ties between the two nations !
Pakistan’s economy is in such dire state today that it has no option ! Only foreign direct investment can rescue the Pakistan’s economy. But a near bankrupt nation and twenty two crore hungry people will drive away any foreign investors ! Saudi Arabia , UAE , USA and even China want Pakistan to give up its unnecessary enmity with India and restore normal trade and travel relations. But Saudi Arabia and UAE will need Indian market for major FDI in Pakistan . Pakistan army is not a fool. It knows that its good will with Public is over. Burning of Corps Commander’s house in Lahore was not a conspiracy but an indication that people will now look for alternatives like Turkey to come out of impossible living conditions created by army insistence on abnormal defence expenditure and its hidden high corruption. Public knows the high level corruption of General Kayani and Bajwa . There are many Asim Bajwa type Pizza Generals in Pakistan who will get exposed in some future leaks . So army may support of a new solution to come out of this fix .
But India will not bite the bullet even if Nawaz tries it sincerely unless it knows that the next General or Imran Khan or Bilawal will not go back to time tested Kashmir agenda to get into power . It has written off Pakistan as a bad debt and not bothered about it any more . It will seek a national consensus and international guarantees to venture on this failed path again . USA as well as China will support trade and travel normalisation but will like to retain the Pakistan’s threat value as a destablising bargaining chip over the new emerging India just the way Britishers used Jinnah and even Ambedkar to some extent . The Mullah Military and CIA / ISI alliance will get the OIC support also as demonstrated in utterly terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel which no big Islamic nation is able to condemn! We really need a Bismark to solve this riddle but Modi – Nawaz can do it even now .
But India too has to think beyond and find ways to live peacefully with neighbours by neutralise the balkanisation threat by becoming too strong in not merely military but in other asymmetric warfare methods too including diplomacy, alliances , media manipulation etc as being done by China and Islamic countries in Western countries .
The beginning can be a Indo Pak resetting ties to 1960 level in spite of the risk of reversal by some over ambitious general or young political upstart in future !
