India Must Acquire ‘Mutual Assured Economic Destruction’ Capability To Defend Its Sovereignty , Independence and Safety of Indians Abroad .
Rajiv Upadhyay 
West, helpless against China, due to its invincibility and non permeability , will increasingly secretly regard divisible soft bellied India , as an alluring target for ‘Soft Colonisation’ . Indian refusal to join any war camp and its economic size and market will be an additional factor for all regime change type experiments or dumping their surplus industrial products. China and Pakistan are known enemies who will never miss any opportunity to pull down India.
It is in India’s interest to not to get drawn in any war and remain neutral like Switzerland and have good relation with all big countries. It should balance discretionary buying power to further its interests. However harsh realities of new cold war are making West wanting camp followers not friendly allies pursuing their own interests. China on the other hand regards India as an irritation and disposable challenge to its global expansion ambitions which have been tamed substantially after COVID. USA is slowly but steadily closing on China but it is a mixed news . It could tame a foolish China under Xi Ping but unleash a global neo colonialism. West may not mind India getting some crumbs as long as it follows and supports their interests. But as we celebrate hundred years of our independence , we will like to throw away the yoke of colonialism completely and regain our rightful glory.
To safeguard its interests and be effective internationally, India must acquire a critical mass in military and economic power. At present only America , China , Russia have real power . One Pakistani General accepted that ‘ Global Terror’ has given Islam a disproportionate power in West although it is paying a heavy price for it. Our geographic ultra defensive approach is inadequate for our needs. Our democratic Politics, however essential , is preventing our rapid economic growth as freebies are now a national scourge like locust affecting our defence preparedness.
Also in spite of its size India is highly vulnerable to blackmail by too many countries.
Small countries like Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka have threatened our security under Chinese allurement . Ugandaq under Amin, and Kuwait and Qatar recently have demonstrated that how even NRIs can make us vulnerable to international pressures. Check on remittances and import restrictions can cripple our economy . Restrictions on Energy and Fertilisers , can threaten our food security . Restriction on API s can threaten our health security. Economic and banking sanctions by Europe and USA can ruin our economy. Restrictions on weapons and ammunition supply can throw our defence out of gear .
At present India is really helpless against all our majot enemies and is surviving by diplomatic tight rope walking and pleasing all by using its purchasing power.
Indian government must realise the danger of asymmetric war and keep the country united even if requires tolerating or sharing power with adversaries domestically. Our constitutional federalism is a great unifier and must be maintained and visibly promoted.
As we become richer , we must acquire Mutual Assured Economic Destruction ( MAED) power against our potential major enemies. In simple words we must be able to protect our economy and proportionately damage economies or security of our enemies in case they impose unreasonable unilateral sanctions or block our trade or endanger our security or trouble NRIs abroad as a blackmailing tactics.
Some practical steps could be
Use of BRICS
- BRICS should set up an apolitical international court to examine unilateral sanctions on members and declare unreasonable sanctions as illegal. Any one including member countries starting a war or changing international status quo unilaterally , should not be protected.
- BRICS to create an alternate currency and money transfer system , a news agency like Reuter , global internet with alternate search engine, a grain bank of 25 million tonnes , a fertiliser bank of 10 million tonnes , oil bank of 50 MT and a medicine bank and critical industrial raw material bank in user countries , on the pattern of gold reserves. It should be used to help the nation victim of unreasonable sanctions after the approval of the BRICS international court .
- BRICS to create a currency bank of 100 billion dollars in local currencies to be used for helping countries distressed by illegal sanctions , as a soft loan to be repaid in five years .
- If unilateral sanctions are applied , BRICS should be in position to impose retaliatory sanctions on guilty nations if possible. However present dependence on Western technology and markets may make it difficult.
- However like WHO in Covid days , global politics and China may politicise BRICS to suit its needs and will not allow BRICS coming to India’s rescue in case of attack by China or Pakistan and may short sell Indian interests for its selfish gains as happened with Indian vaccine during COVID.
Indian Efforts Required : Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserves To Build Commodity Reserves.
1. India must aim to have a balanced trade with West / EU . It should develop some trade power by becoming a global supply hub of some vital raw materials like chemicals , refined oil products , medicines , liquid hydrogen , electric batteries/condensers, laptop/computers ,mobiles ( fully Indian ) , shipping etc . so that like China today, it is not taken lightly in applying frivolous sanctions . However as stated by Boris Johnson recently , West is equally determined to protect its global hegemony through G 7 and will block Indian efforts of acquiring real independence or building up of BRICS.
As proven by Ram’s Varun puja before Lanka war , there is really no alternative to acquiring real power in international relations.
2. We should use our foreign exchange reserves to Increase the Petroleum and coking coal reserves of six months , Dams to store one year’s water requirement to counter Chinese threat, fifty million tonne food grain stock , APIs for six months ,critical raw materials for six months to be stocked by users . Government can give loan and interest subsidy on actual extra inventory to big industrial users.
3. Ammunition stocking and other war preparations for a full three months war on two fronts . After the long Ukraine war, China will not stop with a short war as it did in in 1962. Even a foreign inspired Ghazwa- e -hind by Pakistan, with the support of some Islamic countries like Turkey or Qatar has to be factored in our preparations.
3. Protection of trade routes and ships . Self sufficiency in shipping vessels like Russia . Capacity of Emergency imports by air to be enhanced to say fifty thousand tonnes a month.
It can be subsidised by India becoming a global hub of Disaster Management . Except China no other country has this massive capability.
4. Protection of Over seas Indians from racial or religious hatred by overt or covert means . USA has laws protecting American citizens globally and attacked Libya on the death of a few Americans but kills in other countries with impunity.
5. Our Cyber warfare , Communication jamming , space war capabilities are very inadequate. ISRO should have an secret autonomous defence wing, independent of all bureaucratic controls . We should have adequate offensive capability as it alone has deterrence power.
6. Experience has shown that sleeper cells, print , TV and social media will be used for launching an internally divisive campaign to win an easy victory as in the battle of Plassey. Funding of elections will also be a very convenient way. It needs to be effectively countered. We should have protection against such attempts including having our effective presence in foreign media like China and Saudi Arabia .
India must realise that as it becomes rich, it will become an attractive target for international poachers and has to develop adequate offensive and passive defence to prevent repeat of 1757’s battle of Plassey.
