Bangladesh : Meeting The Challenge of Preserving Friendship Without Burdening Exchequer and Compromising Our Security and Hindu Safety
Rajiv Upadhyay 
Indians for many decades have been intrigued by hatred harboured by many Bangladeshis against India . India’s role in creation of the nation is wilfully ignored or downgraded . The picture of their cricket fans celebrating Indian defeat in World Cup 2023 is a tell tale evidence ( World Cup viral: Bangladesh fans celebrate India’s loss in final videos (arynews.tv) ). In fifty years they have not given us free passage to our north east which we could have easily taken in 1971 . It did not allow even a pipeline to bring our share of oil/ gas discovered in Myanmar . PM Modi’s gesture of accepting border adjustment with loss of about 10000 acres of land was not appreciated enough by the public . Islamist staged a violent protest when he visited Bangladesh on its golden jubilee of independence in 2021.
The widespread attack on hindus after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster is repeat of history from Nokhali massacre days of 1946. Hindu population has dwindled from 29 % in 1941 to just 8 % now.
Indian patience and quiet diplomacy has paid rich dividend in Taliban ruled Afghanistan , Maldives and Sri Lanka . It is still the best course in Bangladesh.
However India is being taken for granted in our neighbouring countries and we get only limited temporary goodwill but no lasting gain on our investments. China ,in contrast , has Hambantota, Chittagong port ( partially) and is listened and treated with awe by these countries.
Under the circumstances , what can India do ?
It does not want the return of old East Pakistan with gleefully smuggled dirty bomb. Bangladesh economy will sink in next one year and inflation will cross ten percent or more. Its restoration will cost about ten billion dollars which neither China nor IMF will give. About a million hindu refugees may cross or collect at border. The redline of military intervention if India is burdened with refugee influx must be made explicitly clear right now.
If Sheikh Hasina is given asylum in Russia, it will be a great help. After this India can focus on only protecting the hindu minority by even mildly coercive means like reduced trade, water, electricity etc . Allow Bangladeshi Islamists to ruin their country’s economy with no interference or advice. IMF may give care taker PM Yunus about a billion dollars but will not give anymore . Next government will only preside over the demise of economy for a year . BNP must be diplomatically made to realise the futility of returning to power under such circumstances.
As Bangladesh becomes another Pakistan economically , India must handle their media with great care as not to get blamed for the economic failure . The need to bring back constitutionally elected Hasina government back must be always offered as the only sane option. Some dialogue with students must be opened. If Hasina government is respectfully restored India may have to give it another five billion dollars to bring the economy back on rail.
China and Pakistan have no love for Bangladesh . They will only promote chaos . USA and West will soon become disinterested and largely regard it as Indian problem and do nothing to relieve the human tragedy as in 1971.
But Pakistan/ China have strong Islamist followers and ultimately they may force us to intervene militarily by continuing brutal attacks on hindus and forcing them to flee in large numbers as refugees .
India must be prepared for both peaceful and military solution to end refugee crisis if forced on us by our enemies .
But peace without war will be the best option without burdening our exchequer.
