Understanding The False Confidence Of General Asim Munir And His Motives In Ordering Pahalgam Massacre , Beware Of Bold Surprises and hidden technologies .
Rajiv Upadhyay
No sane Pakistani leader would order Pahalgam operation under its present economic conditions . The ruling party of Nawaz Sharif had faced fallouts of Kargil and shameful unconditional withdrawal after begging President Clinton . It also had faced consequence Pathankot , Uri attack . Also Nawaz Sharif is committed to improving relations with India . President Zardari knows the consequences of Mumbai Attack and would not start a futile war .
So why Pahalgaon now ?
General Munir’s stupidly disastrous speech to overseas Pakistanis on Muslims not being able to live with hindus and revival of two nation theory was at best ill timed and at worst a go ahead signal to Hafiz Saeed’s LeT to undertake Pahalgam massacre . Even prominent Pakistanis like Shahbaz Gill in USA , stated that in seventy years things have changed world over say in Saudi Arabia vis a vis women driving , like African status in USA etc . So Gen Munir’s anti hindu rants were not only in bad taste but out of time .
Vital Question is why Munir raked up an old issue reversing General Bajwa’s peaceful LOC / border initiative . More over knowing the weakness of Pakistan economy why risk a war now ?
A simple explanation is that Munir wants extension beyond retirement in November . He is very unpopular and his wars in Balochistan , NWFP , Afghanistan have all backfired . So he must gain popularity by winning some skirmish with India citing Zafar Express etc as Indian handiwork with no trace of evidence . Being a religious zealot , he may imagine himself as new Salauddin Ayubi and seek greatness by being first to use nuclear ‘ Pao Pao Bombs ‘ .
But why is he sure of winning or causing stalemate in a war with much bigger India , defying General Bajwa’s advice ?
One reason could be the known Indian weakness of Airforce particularly BVR missiles and AWACS . American upgraded F 16s with AMIM missiles ,Chinese BVR PL 15 missiles on paper are superior to all Indian missiles . Second could be the assumed anti Modi feelings in Muslims due to Art 370, Waqf , CAA etc . He may be hoping to get support of local population in starting mass agitations , blasts , riots etc with ISIs sleeper cells . AAP govt in Punjab is not the best choice in war against Pakistan . Who returned Satluj Yamuna Canal land back to farmers . Now diversion of water is very difficult. Pakistan’s may be hoping for large military support from Turkey / China / Qatar etc. Also CIA may help him clandestinely as it wants to create a Christian country in North East along with a naval base in Bay of Bengal and need Pakistan for attack on Iran .USA government under Trump may adopt a neutral stance as in 1965 . Our Sukhois are not a match to F 16 in missiles. Only Israel and France will stand with India and they cannot match China and Turkey . Large scale mobilisation of forces requires time for India due to distances involved and transportation bottlenecks .
But like cutting communication of Abhinandan’s aircraft , does Pakistan has some more hidden aces up his sleeve ? This is the most worrisome aspect . Pakistan has five working submarines so even naval action will be expensive . Aircraft carriers are vulnerable to drones as well as missiles . It can force world to press for cease fire by exploding a dirty nuclear bomb first .
Our decades of neglect of defence and unpreparedness for war gets exposed every time Pak attacks as in collapse of Operation Parakram etc after Parliament attack . Our Babus and Babu dependent Netas have made a mess of our defence by constant budget squeeze and interference .
Unfortunately even if we win by ingenuity of our valiant forces . Babus will only get emboldened further .
So one only hopes and wishes that our valiant armed forces succeed in teaching a bitter lesson to Pakistan so that no next reckless Munir is born in future.
