पुनः मुष्कः भव : Trump ,India And World Beyond Day After Tomorrow , Expanded AUKUS And Abraham Accord
Rajiv Upadhyay
In the long run India will be thankful for Operation Sindoor for showing it its grand isolation , real friendlessness and its true place in the new International order . From Obama to Biden’s time , America had put India under a delusion of being an very critical ally against China along with Australia and Japan . India entered COMCASA and other alliances but refused to be join a direct military alliance against China or Russia . Ukraine war and India’s large purchases from Russia and refusal to give soldiers disappointed West considerably . It also did not support India’s hope of getting a permanent seat in UN Security council .
Trump ignored India in the inauguration ceremony and almost devalued PM Modi’s presence during his visit by imposing 27 % tariff on India based on adverse balance of trade with USA .’ Ab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar ‘ was irrelevant in the new administration .
Meanwhile while India was able to offer ,at best ,raising trade to $500 billion in ten years, Trump one visit to Riyadh , Doha and UAE resulted in an investment promise of more than a trillion dollars . Earlier in one day Yes Bank of Japan had promised to invest $ 200 billion in AI project . India is really insignificant in investment market.
Trump requested Saudi to join Abraham Accord and recognise Israel which Syria’s new ruler , off from the ten million dollar prize on head , had agreed in a de facto manner .
If Saudi, Qatar join Abraham Accord , Iran will be totally isolated and will possibly agree to give up its nuclear ambitions . We will become less important to Israel afterwards. Russia will be put under immense pressure by reducing oil prices and may capitulate as for now on Ukraine . After Russia, China will be isolated completely . BRICS will be a paper alliance posing no threat to US dollar .
Pakistan and Bangladesh will be used to control India , India will be used against China , Afghanistan will be used against Pakistan . The whole of South East Asia will be under turmoil and in a war like middle east once with four nuclear powers confronting each other .
India will be still supported but much less than before and not allowed to ever be a threat to USA and Western hegemony like China .
The Operation Sindoor showed total isolation of India as no one supported it except Israel and France and Russia to a limited extent while Pakistan was supported actively by OIC, China , Turkey , Azerbaizan and even IMF gave it loan ignoring India’s protests . Ultimately in ten to fifteen years Islamic card will be played against India as it reaches a GDP of say ten trillion dollars . Indonesia and Vietnam may then be the new India in making . Even Bangladesh under Yunus repeated its Seven Sister tirade again thus exposing possible American deep state’s desire to split India in the long run .
China can be offered that bait, giving it second access to sea via Bangladesh with Tawang in its pocket. Russia will be so dependent on China that it may not actively support India.
We have a seven to ten years window available but we need a very dynamic, creative and bold leadership .
So in this grim scenario what are the options available to India ?
In the order of priority
- Pass One Nation One Election law immediately and no state elections to be held up to 2029 or 2031 , if possible with parliamentary approval. It is time for prioritising survival without losing our valuable democracy.
- Stop all Centre and State freebies except ration to people below poverty line .
- Triple defence procurement and research budget to catch up with China and establish Mutually Assured Destruction capability . In next seven years we should establish MAD with China in all areas after which China will deal with us with due respect . However , a limited Vajpayee style normalisation of ties with China may be possible with Russian help and should be attempted as really both countries can grow together except that China does not consider us as equal.
- Allow Chiefs committee along with DRDO/HAL/ISRO CMDs to purchase on single tender or any other basis all the essential new critical technologies before the route is blocked . Babus are a hinderance and should have no role in this quick critical technology procurement and upgradation.. Funds to be made available on non lapsable basis in budget .
- Hundred percent of ammunition and consumables and eighty percent of total defence acquisition to be done locally from at best two reliable vendors for next ten years till our companies become globally formidable . Bribery based International and national Arms lobbies to be guarded against effectively by careful selection of very honest and capable people . However some post facto checks and declaration of all assets by buyers should be mandatory without prosecution threat unless approved by PM above Additional Secretary level and Minister for Joint Secretary level .
- Defence research to be reorganised making full use of Start ups and Universities and companies. Small , empowered teams to be made for each project reporting to Chiefs / DRDO /ISRO /PSUs CMDs directly .
- A separate cell under PMO for technology development in green field area.
- World will ultimately value us based on our critical international trade , economy and applied military strength to defend our turf against adversaries.
- While non alignment may be inescapable but like China , USA etc we too should some strings attached with our aid .The present boy scout approach is not being used by any country .
- Like Germany in second world war, India should have a NSA like officer to plan for raw material and coordinating manufacturing activities . We really need a growth rate of eight to ten percent but without US support we may be stuck at 6 percent .
Even the facade of idealism in global politics is tragically dead under Trump and must be accepted as ‘ beyond our reach’ to change. In an ‘ Era of Deal Making’ old timers of value based politics are now the dinosaurs condemned for extinction. A small cell in MEA may be still kept to keep seeds of idealism in the hope of return of better times .
‘ Can India Survive In This Neo Colonial Era ? ‘ depends on if we are fast enough to change by cutting bureaucracy like TRUMP but using its experience and knowledge productively .
Who will bell the cat ?
