Indian Interests and Foreign Policy Audit : Turkish Unprincipled Opportunism , Chinese Aggression and Debt Trap , American Selfish Invasive Exceptionalism Vs Indian Passive Welfarism : क्षमा शोभती उस भुजंग को जिसके पास गरल हो
Rajiv Upadhyay
In spite of its poverty , India punched above its weight, in international affairs and our foreign policy of ‘ Non Alignment’ was uniquely successful in Nehru era till Chinese attack in 1962 exposed Indian hollowness. We realised we had no true friend as both Russia and USA along with Nasser , Sukarno and Tito, all maintained strict neutrality and discreet aloofness . India could not have expected anything more . Except Bangladesh war , this global neutrality repeated endlessly till Galwan valley clashes 2020 which resulted in China occupying even more territory and proving India to be a paper tiger again globally. India’s wish for a permanent seat in UNSC with Veto at par with France and UK was also rejected by all UNSC members .
It is not that we won no battles . Fixing Malaysia’s Mahatir Mohammed , Erdogan and Imran Khan , buying cheap Russian oil and support to Israel without offending Arabs and West were definitely great achievements. Operation Sindoor was Pakistan’s 1962 moment . Maldives has ultimately come back so will Bangladesh . But we have won battles but lost big wars .
China’s economic might and its big developmental but hidden loan traps and bribes to leaders made it more attractive to our traditional neighbours like Nepal , Sri Lanka , Myanmar and Maldives . ASEAN too fell in Chinese lap as every one wanted Chinese money and cheap goods. In spite of geographic closeness and having helped Nepal , Sri Lanka , Maldives so much earlier they ignored past help and all gave royal snub to India .
Even with West our Quad , Indo Pacific dreams were washed away with President Trump inviting General Munir for a private lunch and Pakistan being made a member of Security Council . West wanted Indian soldiers to fight their wars which was totally unacceptable to us . But it made them discard Indian friendship as worthless.
We however chose to continue our unselfish welfarism like a boy scout, as the base of our foreign policy . It gave us momentary recognition and praise but no long term returns . Ultimately at best India is a lovable neighbour’s pet whom every one likes but no one feeds .
क्षमा शोभती उस भुजंग को जिस के पास गरल हो
Turkey , on the other hand followed an absolute transactional policy and exploited every situation to its momentary advantage with no principles. It shot a Russian jet but bought S – 400 defence system . It recognised Israel but led vocal chorus in support of Palestine in OIC . It blocked grain export via Bosporus and permitted it at a price . But it has given it momentary advantages but has reduced Turkey’s respect globally .
China pursued a confrontational policy on Taiwan and imposed an utterly illegal nine dash line against ASEAN countries like Vietnam and Philippines but kept USA in good humour till President Xi Jinping started harbouring G-2 dreams . China is today universally feared or disliked but no one annoys it out of fear.
With no USSR to challenge it , USA behaved like the ruler of the world with its sole superpower status but kept it discreet till Biden era .But Trump’s crudeness made it unbearable to even its most trusted and old Allies like Canada and Europe . America after Trump will never be same again .
Ukraine war has exposed weakness of Europe and it is really like our 1962 moment for Europe .
Lately even tiny country like Qatar has exposed our absolute weakness by arresting our naval officers and meddling in Nupur Sharma’s case . OIC and Iran support Pakistan on Kashmir but keep quiet on Chinese Uyghur muslims . We can be blackmailed easily by expulsion of our diaspora by so many countries. We have no leverage on OIC nations . We buy their oil and gas and they support our labour . But they have been successfully weaned away from Pakistan .
The lesson is obvious . We need to increase our military power by increasing our defence acquisition budget by at least ten billion dollars annually and acquire an aggression and assault capability in protecting our interests . Simultaneously like Russian oil and Chinese Rare earths, we must acquire some vital control on global supply chain . But it is not easy because bitten once by China, West is very cautious and our support to Russia has annoyed it very much . Also our corruption and bureaucracy is a great hinderance . Also like Arabs and China, we must buy our space in global media, think tanks and educational institutions as we have repeatedly failed in selling our narrative . But just donation to say Harvard or New York Times without strings is pointless . No one wants extra passengers in a crowded compartment . We have to create our space by force .
So while Boy Scout welfarism can continue as a velvet glove but time has come to develop an iron fist in our foreign policy .
भय बिन प्रीत न होत गोसाईं
