Beyond Putin , Ukraine and Bangladesh : Understanding The Depth Of Indo – Russian Friendship and Future Beyond 2030.
Rajiv Upadhyay 
On 4 th December President Putin will land in India, a country which deeply trusts and respects Russia and views Indo – Soviet ties as a cornerstone of a new World order in which India will emerge as a principal power after USA , China and EU. But even beyond 2030 Indo Russian friendship will be a mutual need and both PM Modi and President Putin know it and will do utmost to ensure that this relationship out last both of them.
India has learnt its lesson well from Soviet Union and is following its old help model in Africa .
Both West and USSR helped the newly independent India greatly under PM Nehru. It is estimated that India was the largest recipient of US Aid which at present prices is estimated at 65 billion US dollars . Other western block countries also gave valuable help . But 55% of US Aid was for food grain under PL – 480 for buying wheat and agricultural products . Norman Borlaug , the father of Indian wheat revolution and rather the entire green revolution was a scientist working under US Aid programme . But other USAID was on commercial loan terms with 5-6% interest and with deep state infestation .
But it was USSR that made India into an industrialised country. All big PSUs BHEL , Bhilai , HAL , HEC , Fertilisers ,Bombay High were made by Russian assistance. The Bombay High (now Mumbai High) oil field was discovered in 1974 with significant help from Russian experts, who partnered with Indian teams during seismic surveys. The Soviet vessel Academic Arkhangelsky played a key role in mapping the Gulf of Cambay, leading to the discovery of India’s largest offshore oil field.
Soviet Union accepted Rupee payment and interest rate was about two percent .
Defence ties were merely an extension of this trust . President Nixon ordered US 7 th fleet to move to Indian ocean to help Pakistan during Bangladesh war but it was checkmated by Soviet submarines .
Afghan war was a difficult time because India could not have supported foreign intervention but we handled it with maturity protecting our national interests just as in Ukraine war .
By 2030- 35 we will be the third biggest economy and possibly be the fourth biggest military power. Russia will remain the third biggest military power with China overtaking USA economically and becoming undefeatable militarily . USA will try make a deal with China as G 2 giving Taiwan as bonus along with the entire Asia and Africa. India and Russia will need each other as China will try becoming a colonial power in ASEAN area blocking Japan and Korea and claiming 9 dash line and entire resources of South China sea . It will foray into Indian ocean with the help of client state like Pakistan . With no Western help to India, It will definitely try repeat of 1962’s conclusive Indian defeat, to put emerging India in its place .
Russia and Chinese friendship will last at most twenty years as China has big claim on Russian territory. Retreating Europe will accept its secondary status .Without USA’s military support , Arab countries will move into Chinese block unless India – Russia can offer some credible protection to their independent position .Japan , Korea, Indonesia and Australia will wait and watch but will confine themselves to defending their land with a bit of western help unless India – Russia axis can offer them some protection too.
So India- Russia friendship is here to stay due to common long term mutual interests .
India should view Indo Russian cooperation in this perspective.
