Iran’s War Strategy : Danger To India From An Adventurist War By Pakistan’s Generals : Past Surprises Can Not Be Ignored .
Rajiv Upadhyay 
Taking a cue from Iran , Abdul Basit , a former Pakistan Ambassador to India, said in a TV interview that in any next war we will first drop few bombs on Delhi and Mumbai irrespective of what happens later .This may look to be a suicide war strategy for Pakistan but Iran’s success in creating panic by attacking all neighbouring countries particularly UAE, has given incentive to many defence planners in Pakistan to adopt an ‘adventurist first all out attack and we will face whatever be the consequences ‘ type maxim .
Late General Pervez Musharraf ,in an interview had said that after a few months of Indian army being kept at border in ready to attack mode after Parliament attack , he said ‘I ordered Airforce to be ready to destroy Mumbai irrespective of fall outs ‘. This is not a wild card statement but ‘ Bold Surprise ‘ represents the core thinking in Pakistan’s military hierarchy .
Look at 1999 Kargil operation by a defiant military chief . We just recovered our territory back and call it Shaurya Diwas ! Parliament Attack of 2001 was a natural corollary of our pussy footing Kargil . Could we even imagine a daring plan to take as hostage, the Prime Minister in Indian Parliament . Let us be generous and give gold medal in surprise attack to LET . But Afzal Guru was executed in 2013 due to repeated judicial intervention . So came another bigger surprise of Mumbai attack of 2008 . Could we ever imagine it ? Just ten armed gunmen arriving in a boat from Karachi and taking the entire Indian establishment hostage ! Were they or their military bosses worried about consequences ? No ! . So Pathankot & Pulwama were bound to happen.
Our changed mindset was not fully understood in Uri but after Pulwama ,our attack on Balakot removed all doubts about new India. .
It is important to examine that after Balakot, why did Pakistan staged the Pahalgam attack which surely would not have gone without massive retaliation by India ?
General Munir was encouraged by Pakistan’s success in cutting off communication with Abhinandan’s plane which lead to his capture and a great face saving for Pakistan after Balakot fiasco. Also possibly some of our bombs missed the target while bulk were successful . Our Babus stranglehold on defence procurement is a well known secret Pakistan can always rely on .
Pakistan got hooked to intoxication due to its superior technology .
General Munir, like his predecessors, underestimated the Indian resolve . Some insider must have leaked that we were expecting 150 kms range of PL- 15 missiles instead of actual 200 kms . Even our Rafales were not equipped to defend against PL 15 missiles working without radar , from computer link sent by distant AWACS which were fed by Chinese HQ 9 missiles defence . Also it counted heavily on Turkey’s Bayraktar drone’s ability to destroy our S 400 defences .
Luckily we had Brahmos in reserve and our leadership had will to teach Pakistan a good lesson even with great risk and we destroyed their air defence completely . Further war was not necessary and would have elicited desperate response from Pakistan . General Munir became a Field Marshal yet with shared power not a full dictator loke Zia or Musharraf .
We must understand that Pakistan army’s leadership is like a psychotic gambler . In spite of losing heavily every time it still plays the next hand hoping to win this time !
If it gets another new decisive technology before India, next Munir will again attack India to seek eternal glory . Also this time following Iranian strategy it may involve attack our weak allies like Sri Lanka , Mauritius , Oman etc . It will attack Jamnagar refinery. NARORA as the easiest target that can cripple our economy and seek a peace deal with say giving half the Ravi water in addition to three rivers and reversing Kashmir status .
Alternatively it may use Islamists of Bangladesh with a gifted dirty bomb and a missile .
West loves Pakistan for its willing transactionalism for a relatively low cost. China will neutralise Russia . America will push India into accepting a Ceasefire to prevent a nuclear war . If we lose the initiative in war we will be alone to face consequences !
So in the changed dynamics we have to shed our false over confidence and counter Pakistan’s repeated success in giving us surprises . Also the cost of mis adventurism has to be sunk in the mind of the notional civilian leadership and media there. But population’s mood in Pakistan is bellicose due to its success in getting mediators role . If hopeful of victory, it will condone or support another Pulwama .
India needs to realistically evaluate the big Pakistani threat particularly after it gets J 35 and PL -16 or higher missiles and Turkish drones and a nuclear submarine .
We must double our defence procurement budget and remove Babus and financial return based approach to be effective .
