Abandoning Indo Pacific For G-2 Will Be The Greatest American Mistake Since Vietnam War
Rajiv Upadhyay 
Faced by the imminent loss of face in his Iran War and his predecessor’s Ukraine war , President Trump is possibly willing to abandon Indo Pacific and sell the long term US interests to China by accepting G 2 in which USA will have West including Latin America ,Canada , Australia and Europe ( minus Russia ) and China/ Russia get Asia and Africa . But succumbing to China now is like succumbing to Germany in 1930s and will not solve any problem but only create a bigger unpredictable problem in future ,
The current desperation of President Trump is not worse than Churchill’s predicament during second world war and can be handled better.
China too is passing through a bad phase in economics . It is just rolling over bad loans as it added 27 trillion dollars since 2007 to 2018 in Bank Assets .China peaked it share in global GDP at 18.5 % in 2021 in dollar terms , US has added more at 26 %. America till Trump’s aggressive weaponisation of trade and tariffs , was a trusted ally though resented some times as too selfish .
American Presidents like Trump and Biden are too old and continue to live in past . President Clinton and Obama being younger had a clearer perspective and did a great service to USA . MAGA people do not understand that Dr Kissienger and Nixon’s solution of Petrodollar did not solve the economic problems of USA but deferred catastrophe by fifty years . A new doctrine is needed now.
Also these unnecessary wars have destroyed European economy and USA has added 19 trillion dollars to its debt since 2020 and now blames high defence expenditure unnecessarily. The oil and gas price rise, blowing up of Russian pipe lines have killed western economies . Europe unnecessarily agreed to extended NATO to Russian borders based on American pressure, forcing Putin to retaliate.
What Professor Stephen Nagy ( Japan Times ) and great think tanks in USA have not yet publicly analysed is the long term impact of USA losing global leadership both on USA , NATO countries and the world . With dollar losing its status as global currency, a huge inflation will grip USA and most likely Europe too. Without a dominating superpower, many smaller nations will start unnecessary wars . As an illustration, Pak PM flew to Washington on 4 th July and President Clinton was ultimately able to stop Indo Pak war in Kargil / Kashmir . Camp David accord was another good example . Japan and South Korea too remained secure . They all contributed to US Economy by strengthening Dollar . In fact Japan suffered hugely by Plaza accord but USA gained at its expense.
Faced by the sudden drop in living standard, many in west look again for neo colonial solutions . Africa stands to lose heavily . India will again be the principal target in drawing room talks and CIA offices as Russia and China will be beyond western wish list.
Unfortunately recolonising Africa or even forced adverse trade terms on India will not save the down fall of west .
American Think Tanks and global media should initiate is a debate whether very old presidents in USA are a great global liability and American think tanks to make models of a post superpower scenario for American economy .
It would be far worse than losing two minor wars in Ukraine and Iran .
