Is Pakistan Changed or Worried After Balakot Strike
Rajiv Upadhyay 
As now some time has paased , after India avenged the Pullwama attack by attacking the JEM terror camps at Balakot in which two hundred fifty terrorists might have died , we should take a dispassionate view of its impact on Pakistan’s rogue behaviour..
As far as JeM is concerned it will not be affected . It struck back at President Musharraf with an assassination attempt after Lal Masjid clean up ordered by him. An airstrike will not deter it .Those who are being trained for suicide bombing will consider death as their chosen path giving them 72 hurs in ‘jannat’ . The only regret JeM may have is dying enmass before killing Kafirs . They will plan massive retaliation . Hafiz Saeed backed parties got five to ten thousand votes in about seventy constituencies. They cannot be ignored by any government and are emboldened by this vote share in first attempt. They are like CPM (ML), a naxalite political outfit.
As far as Pakistan government is concerned it has never learnt anything from 1965 , 1971, Kargil wars . All those wars were started by army . It has now denied the attack on Balakot seminary but has said bombs fell in jungle. Avenging airspace / border violation by Indian planes , its planes attacked India without waiting , next day, in a bigger formation and we lost a Mig 21 and our pilot was captured and arrested as Prisoner of war .Pakistan also denied losing its F16 . Its government has saved its face with its civilian population with the arrest and subsequent release of pilot Abhinandan. In fact gave it a high moral ground while the euphoria in India vanished after the quick Pakistani successful retaliation . We took about twelve days to react to Pulwama Pakistan took just twenty four hours. Also a somber comparison with Turkeys lowering of Russian jet over Syria border reveal that Turks were able to shoot the Russian jet just as it crossed into Turkish air space for a few minutes. We could not do it as well as Turkey and the international community will note the difference .
An academic parallel can be the Pokhran nuclear blasts in Vajpayee era .Pakistan promptly replied with five blasts ie one more and since then our security situation has not improved .
Similarly Balakot strike wil only make pakistan more determined to get military parity with India in high technology areas. FATF and Internatonal condemnation will only make it cover its track better in future . It will pump money into our Kashmir to grow more local terrorists . This time the suicide bomber and the vehicle was Indian . It is not yet established that RDX was of Pakistani origin . Its effort will be directed towards not being identified or caught with smoking revolver rather than abandoning terror as an ISIs preferred mode of operation .
Balakot attack inspite of being badly needed by India to show its revised tolerance level , will only result in Pakistan increasing its terror budget and foment more trouble cladestinely in our Kashmir or elsewhere .
We have to keep making efforts to cripple its economy and use our influence to deny it any more foreign aid after the new government’s initial success in getting Saudi , UAE , Chinese & Malyasian loans . Russian , Saudi and UAE ‘S large investment needs to be delayed till it gives up terror . Middle East and even China have been favouring maintaining peaceful status quo in Kashmir . Simultaneosly we should make its sane elements realize that like Iran Iraq war which was the beginning of the end of independent middle east , India Pakistan should not play to foreign agendas . We should not become proxies of big powers. Till 1965 there was no tension between India Pakistan . We should aim to go back to 1964. All our courageous leaders in both countries were jailed or killed in unnatural circumstances beginning with Liaqat Ali Khan and we should realize and identify the international forces behind our wars .
But knowing the helplessness of Pakistan’s civilian leadership in front of its monstrous and rogue army , it is more important now to isolate Pakistan from even China and its old supporters in Pentagon by deft diplomacy !
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