भारत एक वैश्विक सुपरपावर : एक दंतहीन डायनासोर का दिवः स्वप्न : Inherent Limitations of Indian Indo Pacific Dream
Rajiv Upadhyay
India these days is excited like a child who has just learnt walking but has big dreams of winning the olympics. The shrewed Americans have psychologically 
prepared India to assume the financial and military responsibility of defending freedom of international shipping trade routes and upholding the international law and order in the Indian ocean and the region now called the Indo Pacific ie the area close to Asia in the Pacific ocean to Oman ( Indian View) . Replcement of the word Asia Pacific with Indo Pacific has thrown us in ecstacy ! It has increased our problems .Japan , Australia and later may be Korea as well as ASEAN countries may assist India in keeping the sea lanes free and keeping China in check .
Americans are wanting to still rule the world by being the distinctly most powerful first amongst the sovereign equals . Unlike British who just abandoned the superpower role as they withdraw from the region after the second world war , America wants to continue its rule through its new alles like knights in British history. But its newly acquired unilateralism has upset all old friends. India in General Ayub Khan’s words will like have America as friend but not as master , without any reason to rejoce.that US wants under Trump. We need to have Iran Russia as friends and our independent space in foreign policy the way General De Gaul had acquired for France or China had from Nixon . Trump is in no mood to give any space to any ally .
India currently did not have much option because if it had not volunteered China would have just occupied the area by their projects like Pearl of Strings by which the had surrounded India by naval basis in Srilanka , Pakistan , Bangladesh , Mynmar , Maldive etc .With CPEC with Pakistan , it would acquire the capacity to attack the entire middle east oilfields and disrupt the international oil shipment from its Gwadar base. It has unilaterally declared South China Sea to be its territory under the nine dash line . But we need to learn from Pakistan which got destroyed by fighting American wars in Afghanistan . Being a Nato ally is not in our interest as Nato is primarily a Euopean alliance against Russia. We are not a natural member of Nato nor we have any conflict of interest with Russia . Becoming an odd member like Turkey will give us no real benefit . It may hasten formation of an Iran Pakistan , Russia , Central Asian Republics block which will be dominated by China .We only need superior American defence technology to be ahead of China and Pakistan but it should be without strings as we will pay for it . Otherwise we can have European technology which is slightly behind but still good enough for China and Pakistan . We must continue to develop the next generation of weapons like missiles , stealth planes etc . for reducing our dependence on USA .
The American century from 1935 to say 2035 AD will be the period in which the whole world made tremendous economic and technological progress peacefully . America did not colonise because its technology was so superior that it could capture the world market effortlessly . Japan gave it the first shock by making better cameras , cars and white goods . Subsequently Europe caught up.It would have collapsed much earlier economically but for Nixon/ Dr. Kissienger’s opening of China , Saudi petrodollar agreement replacing the Bretton Woods agreement and collapse of Soviet Union which left USA as the sole superpower helped it survive. Now US is no longer a technology leader and China has grown to challenge the West . Russia too has started flexing its military muscles . In twenty years USA will not remain the sole superpower.
Americans quickly recaliberated their strategy by roping in India and making a quad concept with India , Japan and Australia to challenge the unchecked supremacy of China in Asia and the nearby region .
India may be equal to China in population but with just $ 300 billion exports compared to $ 2.2 trillion Chinese exports it is a pygmy in economic power . Neither America nor Europe nor even ASEAN will prefer us over China . They will instead learn to live with Chinese giant rather than confronting it the way UK handed over Hongkomg to them .Militarily we always had a defensive startegy and have no history of sustained military campaigns and conquests . It does not have military industrial complex so essential for being a world power . Inspite of our size we shall really be a dinosaur without teeth .
Moreover India does not have a killer instinct , will or tradition required for being a great military power . Even Pakistan is more daring than us let alone Vietnam and Afghanistan ..Even if it can revive the Chankya days of aggressive defence it has no blue print of what it wants as great military power, the way China has claimed over the entire south china sea or made artificial islands or its belt and road initiative . Can India claim the entire Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea as its territory.
Its current desire is only to keep Indian ocean as its influence area and secure its raw material supply . West is happy to concede it that role but Pakistan as a Chinese proxy is an impediment in this goal .To defend against Gwadar and other chinese naval bases , India has acquired matching bases in some countries . But in absence of a military alliance ,Quad cannot achieve much except saber rattling . With the present signs , President Trump’s successor after fifteen years may not wish to defend Japan and Taiwan against Chinese attack and certainly not support India militarily against China . Taiwan will be totally at the mercy of China like Hongkong . Australia is uncertain about its allegiance and is not a great economic or military power. India and Japan have to move closer in defence partnership but neither will come to others aid in direct war . Russia and Europe too will not assist India or Japan in case of war . Russian friendship is now rhetoric because it needs China much more . It gives us new defence technologies but had joined USA after nuclear blast in denying the Cryogenic engine . China may be able to open it to Pakistan if India moves uncomfortably close to America .
So both India and Japan have to have the capacity to take on China individually and devise a mechanism of asset transfer in case of war the way Iran and Turkey gave fighter aircrafts to Pakistan in 1965 war .So really India and Japan should have common types of submarines , war ships , air defence etc . so that in worst case scenerio they can transfer assets to each other . May be Australia and ASEAN too can follow this startegy . The Quad countries should be ready to form a military alliance at short notice and all details including stategies to confront China should be worked out now.
Russia is not happy being a junior partner to China and will like to have powerful India as a friend only if India can follow an independent foreign policy . Americans are making a mistake by making it an outcast in Europe . Russia will be less dependent on China if supported by Europe . But it will definitely like to have some of its lost glory back . It should be allowed to have close partnership with Asian countries and good economic relations with developed Europe. A worldwar in Europe is unlikely. Thanks to bullying by China and Trump it will be in Asia .
India cannot use its superpower status for any economic benefit except arms export. Small countries will want more aid from India . We may have to have an annual budget of $ 10 billion for foreign aid for buying influence like China . Our real current challenge is to improve our economy and industrial competetiveness . A growth rate of ten percent by the present method of calculation and exports of a trillion dollar are a must is a must for maintaing international status . Our annual and defence acquisitions have to increase from the current $10 billion to 20 billion and indigenous production of equal amount . Our bureaucracy needs to be just disbanded particularly in defence and finance as it is a great drag on nation . It is incapable of perceiving the next world order and getting India its rightful place .
However with all this even in 2050 , we will be just what UK and France are today . However we will be a great idealogue , moderator balancer and maintainer of world order just as in Nehru era.
This is the final limit of our influence the world affairs .
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