Will An Imploding Pakistan Attack India With A ‘Refugee Bomb ‘ in 2030

Will An Imploding Pakistan Attack India With ‘Refugee Bomb’ in 2030

Rajiv Upadhyay

If seen superficially Pakistan’s current economic crisis is smaller than India’s economic crisis in 1990s .

Pakistan is not facing a real   economic growth problem as its economy is still growing at a real reasonable rate of 3 %. India grew at this rate , pejoratively called the ‘hindu growth rate ‘, for first thirty five years while Pakistan under Ayub Khan grew at a yearly rate of about 5 %  and was envy of countries like even South Korea , Malaysia etc . Population of Pakistan is currently growing at a rate of 1.5 percent compared to 1.17 percent of India  every year but since independence its population has grown by five times compared to three and a half times for India. Pakistan foreign debt is 105 billion dollars   and debt to GDP ratio is 72 percent today compared to similar ratio of 69 % of India at present . But unlike India under Nehru / Indira Pakistan is doing too little for uplifting  its poor population economically or in education or health .It will get worse in next ten years .

Unlike India which due to rising oil price had to load and ship  its 47  ton of gold to Britain for a meagre loan of 450 million dollars in 90s, Pakistan under Imran Khan has managed to get a loan of around ten billion dollars  from its friendly Islamic nations and China . It may ultimately get its thirteenth  loan/ bailout  package of about 6 – 10 billion dollars from IMF / World Bank etc thus saving it from international default this year . However it has no solution nor will it  get any more assistance from its friends or IMF. The balance of payment crisis will hit it again in 2021 with no one left to help .

Its real crisis is that its trade deficit is about thirty  five billion dollars , (export 21 billion import 56 billion ) and with twenty billion dollar remittance it still has a current account deficit of around ten  billion dollars every year for last several years . The trade gap may be reduced by ten percent  this year but further reductions are not easy . Most of  its exports  are low  value added items like Basmati rice , textiles , sports goods and agricultural products etc. Its textile sector cannot compete anymore with Bangladesh and Vietnam and will not contribute significantly to any turn round . It has very little else for additional  exports although China has promised larger duty free imports  . With low oil prices and resultant economic problems , remittances from middle east are also declining . The number of Pakistanis working in gulf is decreasing .It is difficult to reverse it as India , Bangladesh and Philippines will resist it and Pakistani workers are generally less qualified and do low paid jobs . USA and Europe  are turning anti immigrant and big increase in remittance from there can be certainly ruled out . Declining exchange rate of Pakistani rupee and higher taxes will set in high inflation and real wages will go down thus leading to considerable increase in poverty .It has already declined from hundred rupees to 150 rupees to a dollar and may touch two hundred in 2020 . IMF  favorite prescription of floating Pakistani rupee will further harm the economy and increase inflation as Pakistan does not have any reserve industrial strength to tap with floating rupee to increase exports .

With its ‘ Duffer Army ‘ at top ( a term coined by Asma Jahangir ) , forcing high defence expenditure even now in spite of having hundreds of nuclear bombs and long range missiles , and weak political leadership, at constant  war with its predecessors,  no better economic solution is likely to emerge and the country will muddle through and just keep going down the poverty ladder in the next decade . Increased population and shortage of water will compound the problem .It will not learn anything from India and Bangladesh and will not repair its ties with pragmatic approach as displayed by Vajpayee with China which has resulted in totally peaceful borders and massive trade . Unresolved  Indo Chinese border talks are meandering but continuing for twenty years . Kashmir and other border issues can only have this solution and are insignificant in larger regional perspective . But the Duffer Army will not accept the Chinese /Indian wisdom .

After Pakistan’s selfishly agreeing to CPEC unilaterally, thus endangering the world’s power balance and energy security, no developed country  other than China will invest in Pakistan in high technology areas. Even Chinese investment is going down . It may at best defer its loan repayment in future while seizing control of vital assets like Gwadar port and town , Chinese made power houses and road to Sinkiang ( Xinxiang ) . Islamic nations will also develop  donor fatigue and will stop helping after 2021 . CPEC will ultimately result in severe loss of Pakistan’s sovereignity and make it an international  pariah for high technology investment . China is interested in the strategic value of Gwadar and will ultimately set up military facilities there thus isolating Pakistan even more from the western world .

By 2030 Pakistani real per capita income will become half of India’s income . The poor people in provinces like Sindh , Balochistan and  Pakhtoonkhwah will face real hardship . Without new irrigation ,dams and canals,  life in villages in low rainfall areas may become non sustainable . Due to high prices fertilizer consumption is already going down .Law and order will break down in desert areas due to absolute poverty .

Iqbal , Jinnah and Sir Syed Ahmed Khan’s faulty diagnosis of muslim backwardness and their ill conceived solution of partitioning India, with a separate nation for pure Pakistani  muslims ,will finally lie in tatters, with innocent Pakistani population still blaming its poverty on not leading a pious life not realizing that nation building requires leaders with great vision and sacrifice . By 2030 , Indian muslims will enjoy a far better quality of life . Muslim league Leaders like Jinnah who never went to jail during freedom struggle and their followers today , have no visionary plan and cannot inspire nation to make big sacrifice for big vision. Pakistan never had a Nehru . It does not have a Kissinger who can suggest that the only way Pakistan can save its sovereignity is by letting India come in a big way in Pakistan as a balancing force to China. Rebuilding Pakistan now ,without foreign assistance , will require great leadership and national sacrifice . Pakistan turbulent political history is an evidence that it is not blessed with either of these two attributes .

Its army, if it seizes power again , will again mortgage its military might to some one like Saudi or Chinese , including its nuclear and missile arsenal , as was done by Ayub , Zia and Musharraf under various pretexts. It may give temporary relief and progress  but will damage and not give not any permanent solution for achieving sustained self reliance  . Zia’s radical Islamic  legacy has brought in so much turbulence and pain in Pakistani society as did Mushrraf’s imbibing USA’s Afghan war as Pakistan’s war. History will get only repeated with another duffer general on top ( with apology to late Asma Jahangir again ). Back seat driving by army as being done at present is even worse.

Finally Pakistan’s constant economic decline  will lead to an avalanche of around one crore desperate refugees flooding India from Kutch and Rajasthan .

India will be the world’s most populous nation by then and cannot have a repetition of Bangladesh refugee influx which destroyed Assam and Bengal’s  local culture . It has ten years to plan counter measures .

Pakistani refugees should be a UN responsibility not India’s .