Triumphant Modi : Dangers of Nehruvian Above Weight Punching By Both India and Pakistan

Triumphant Modi : Dangers of Nehruvian Above Weight Punching By Both India and Pakistan

Rajiv Upadhyay

This visit of PM Modi to US and UN was an extra ordinary visit . After a massive election victory , Modi went to UN/US under the shadow of churning of Kashmir cauldron and Pakistani PM Imran Khan’s challenge and advice at Muzzafarabad to hold fire and refrain from going to LOC en mass  till he makes his speech at UNGA . For once our foreign office made a mince meat of Pakistan who just could not succeed any where ie UNSC , Human Right Council , General Aseembly and above all Howdy Modi made half the big leaders of the world envious of Modi and Pakistani ego  was just pulverised . Pakistan’s international isolation was totally exposed .Except Turkey it got no support from anywhere . Imran made a big faux pax by tweeting support of 58 out of only 47 member countries of UN human right body where it could not even table a resolution . Pakistan has no international stature to make such a big call on international support for a global non issue .

In UNGA , in a rather subdued speech , PM Modi spoke like a statesman focussing on Indian achievements in areas of global concerns like climate change , renewable energy , single use plastic  , disaster proof infrastructure  etc . He spoke of  achievements like sanitation , linking with banks , housing for poor , mission to supply water to house holds etc . India is  setting examples as a responsible big country . He avoided any reference to Pakistan though asked the world to fight terror unitedly . .

Imran Khan , in a well delivered emotional speech , focused on punishing its corrupt leaders by seizing their properties abroad and blamed west for promoting dishonest leaders in developing world  through tax heavens . He questioned why tax heavens are allowed to exist . He justified Islamic outrage on insult to prophet  and opposed term like Islamic radicalism and islamophobia. His most passionate emphasis was on Indian Kashmir with same boring arguments which he has repeated so many times, hitler , Mussolini , jews etc . and have been ignored completely by the global community. In absence of any deaths , denial of mobile and internet services in Kashmir can hardly be considered a great human tragedies compared to Syria , Yemen, Iraq or Uighur muslims of China .But as evident in the global response no one is taking him seriously .He is hoping for popular revolt when curfew is lifted in Kashmir and warned of nuclear war if Pakistan is wrongly attacked . He conveniently left out ISI sponsored terrorism in Punjab and Kashmir , isolation and suppression of of Uighur muslims of China or why its ‘ good terrorists’  Hafiz Saeed , Lakhwi , Masood Azhars , Salauddins operate so freely in running terror training camps in Pakistan and promoting hatred against India .

President Trump really emerged as a big winner .He proved the often held belief in USA that India can be handled adequately by just soft cuddling . He just attended the Howdy Modi function , Modi’s speech in UN’s environment body and in return got big deal for USA in LNG in Texas. India after brave statement by Sushma Swaraj about following only the UN sanctions has tamely fallen in line with USA on Venzuela , Iran , separate Trade treaty and will give big arms orders .

India was not an outright  loser too as it really had no choice particularly with aggressive Imran breathing down India’s neck.It made best of a bad situation by quietly getting over Russian S400 deal and will get substantial FDI from USA particularly after lowering the corporate tax.

Pakistan was the worst case . Only its ‘duffer Jarnails ie generals’ ( Asma Jahangir’s  term ) ,  could have placed Imran Khan in such a losing position that he will return to Pakistan so empty handed and with so much loss of face except his likely popular defence against radical Islam and Islamophobia .  His speech will not change world opinion about Islam and proof given in the book ‘ ‘Clash of civilizations ‘  by Huntington .No one takes his nuclear threat  seriously . In desperation, ISI will try to clandestinely unleash Hafiz and Masood Azhars hoodlooms on India in Mumbai fashion who will ultimately get caught . If attacked by Pakistan based terrorists , India will attack again and wipe out all its terrorist sanctuaries including Jaish’s  head quarter at ‘Bhawalpur’ . Pakistan may down some jets but ultimately  it will pay  a very high price for its UN / US misadventure of over hyping Kashmir, forced by the  dimwits  in uniform in Rawalpindi . It could have just ignored the scrapping of article 370   in Indian Kashmir with a foreign office statement regretting it as a condemnable  action, just the way India ignored when it illegally merged Gilgit Baltistan with Pakistan. An experienced and genuine civilian  leadership would have known in advance that Pakistan had no choice ,option or locus standi in Indian Kashmir . A peaceful territorial status quo is all that the world wants and Pakistan needs for quiet development . The terror option if exercised against India even clandestinely ,will lead to a war disastrous to Pakistan’s economy.

But common sense is so uncommon in Pakistan.

But there is a growing discomfort amongst visionary foreign policy experts in India . Both India and Pakistan are punching much above their weight in foreign affairs . It is so reminiscent of Nehru era which lead to Chinese debacle . We have China instead of Russia in the arena as an emerging threat to world order by its expansionist stand in south china sea and Indian ocean . Japan , Australia , ASEAN countries and even oil importing Europe are all feeling insecure .Retreating USA is courting India to balance China in Asia and secure the sea routes but with its own money without burdening western economies . It is the only reason why a minor economic power like India is getting so much attention .  Similarly it is tolerating Pakistan due to Afghanistan and for preventing chinese naval base in Gwadar . CPEC has become an albatross around Pakistani neck. Unwittingly Pakistan had bitten more than it can chew on CPEC. World will not allow Pakistan to let China block global gulf oil supply by just paying a few billion dollars to Pakistan .

Similarly with just $ 300 billion exports, India is a very minor player in world trade .It is a major international player in imports only in the  energy and arms market . Its exports have remained stagnant for five years . Its trade balance is highly adverse . It is saved by remittances and software exports . Its foreign exchange reserves though seemingly large are  is less than the total foreign loans and NRI deposits . These are hardly the signs of a emerging superpower .

बीज को बरगद होने का गुमान घातक  होता है .

Pakistan is in a far worse situation than India . Its economy has collapsed and   has a foreign debt equal to five year’s exports in value and a yearly  current account deficit of about twenty bllion dollars which is almost equal to the value of  one year of its exports . All these years it ignored its total dependence on  foreign aid,  in lieu of military services , for survival . But with the end of Afghan war the foreign aid dwindled .With CPEC it tried getting the same again from China . But China had trapped Sri  Lanka in debt trap and taken Hambantota port . It thought it could repeat it in Pakistan. But by now west had understood the Chinese game and it will not permit Pakistan to disturb world’s strategic balance for a few billion dollars. Saddam , Gaddafi’s fate is a warning to all jealots . So in these circumstances  , Pakistan should simply focus  on repairing its  economy . But by blocking its airspace and trade with India ,  it is severely harming its already fragile economy . Pakistani people are the ultimate sufferers . Asma Jahangir’s generals are forcing the civilian government to do harakiri  the name of Kashmir just to save their control ,post retirement benefits and cuts in arms imports .

Similarly India should silently work to make its economy size  to five trillion dollars with a trillion of it coming from foreign trade . It is a poor country still and should remember that its economic growth rate has slowed badly .

Now that the dust has settled on USA / UN visits, sanitized India and Pakistan  should review and restore normalcy , bury Kashmir and focus on economic development  . But  terrorists must be prevented from  disturbing the equilibrium , as done by them  in past in Mumbai , Pathankot , Uri etc . , by activating their sleeper cells in India which ultimately will  get exposed with devastating consequences .

General Bajwa , like General Kayani before him , should realize that India is not a threat to Pakistan and should work to sell the idea of freezing of Kashmir and all other territorial disputes for thirty years to his Generals as done by India and China . Pakistan can then focus on its economy and well being of people by opening the borders and trade as  in 1964, before Indo Pak war. Free trade with India will benefit Pakistan immensely.It would be his greatest ever lasting contribution to the subcontinent including Pakistan .

Imran Khan , like all civilian PMs  before him , would normally be more than willing to give peace a chance if allowed by the army !