Who Gains Most By Splintering Of Pakistan : USA, China , India or The Whole World

Who Gains Most By Splintering Of Pakistan : USA, China , India or The Whole World

R.K.Upadhyay 

Pakistan’s external  debts have reached $108 billion and if the private borrowing is included, it could be almost $ 200 billions . In addition it has an annual  current account deficit of about $18 billion ( total  trade deficit including remittance). If it starts paying back its loans, the current account deficit could zoom to almost $25 – 30 billion every year . IMF has bailed out Pakistan all these years by large loans due to US support .But it is now apprehensive of Chinese loans being paid by IMF grants and may not give more loans . Its austerity programme is causing acute hardship to population and may result in toppling of the Imran government . It has not given the desired benefit as Pakistan has nothing much to export so devaluation of Pakistani Rupee is not yielding as much benefit and may worsen economy by triggering stagflation . The population is used to cheap goods due to US aid ,IMF and Forex loans being used to import consumables and food items like vegetables . It is blaming Imran government for high inflation .In addition overvaluing imports and undervaluing of exports is rampant to send funds abroad through hawala . Population does not pay tax and the government revenue is inadequate to permit any big developmental expenditure.

The biggest drain on the economy is the anti national Pakistani army and the notorius ISI . By arm-twisting the politicians, it takes away almost half the budget of Pakistan left after the loan servicing  . So the seven lakh soldiers get as much money to spend as the rest of the population of twenty two crores .Instead of being apologetic General Bajwa got defence budget increased by twenty percent  from Nawaz Sharif and still got him arrested by organising  a judicial coup like Bhutto hanging . Pakistani army is selling the ‘corruption yarn’ to the nation to divert attention from its huge budget through  its selected PM Imran Khan . All the leading politicians have been jailed through the pliant courts although the army is as corrupt with its expenditure of half of the budget .Both ex COAS General Kayani and Musharraf have flats abroad but no one dare question them the way Nawaz Sharif has been done .

Once the very poor cousin , Bangladesh , has now become a bigger economy and is ahead of Pakistan in all social development indices as it does not waste money in huge defence expenditure and instead maintains good relations with neighbours . Pakistan on the other hand chosen to ‘Eat Grass ‘ for making bombs and missiles .Is ports , airports , airlines, motorways are all pawned away for loans .

Pakistan has two options ie default on loans and express inability to pay . Most of the loans are of IMF , USA , China , Saudi Arabia etc . China has a history of grabbing huge territory in Kazakistan , Sri Lanka etc if its loans are not paid . It will possibly take over all CPEC assets . IMF and Saudis cannot take back money excepting pawned assets . USA may want to take control of its nuclear assets on behalf of IMF and Saudis .

But another option will be to break Pakistan into five  countries ie Punjab , Baluchistan , Kashmir , Sindh and NWFP .UNO may prefer this option but Chinese will not let  it pass unless they get a big chunk of resource rich Baluchistan , Gwadar port and POK . India has a legal claim on POK and Gilgit Baltistan . Afghanistan will want NWFP or Pashtunistan as it has never recognised the Durand line .Iran too may demand part of Baluchistan . USA on the other hand will want POK for making its bases to contain China and India . It will not let China get Baluchistan or POK as it will threaten the global oil supply and enable China to attack and control oil rich nations like Qatar or even Saudi Arabia or Brunei in east . If Pakistan is defanged by taking way its nukes, this option  is better as smaller nations can progress like Bangladesh with out the burden of huge Pakistan army .  Breakup will be subjected to prolonged negotiations between big powers USA , China , Russia and India just as the  division of Germany with Iran and Afghanistan being smaller parties.

But finding an acceptable solution to this muddle is not easy and may involve months of negotiations . China may finally agree to keeping the CPEC assets along with say two thousand square miles of territory at Gwadar . Pakistan army may play spoils  sport .It will be amenable to Punjab being a independent nation under the army rule if its nukes and army is left intact . But it will be a disaster because with its nuclear and  terror assets intact , Pakistan will be even more dangerous to global peace . Moreover the  Punjab economy can support at best an army of 80000 – 100000 . What will happen to the rest of the soldiers ? Who will pay their terminal benefits and pensions . Otherwise like Iraq it will lead to another ISIS being formed from the army deserters which will not suit anyone particularly if they get hold of small nuclear bombs. It will also lead to a huge refugee problem for India and Iran .Pakistani army can be smoked out by prolonged economic sanctions on Pakistan but it will need big publicity blitz to scare western media about Pak nukes falling in terrorist hands.

USA / West and even China and Russia ultimately do not want India to emerge as another super power matching China but will accept it as another peaceful Japan . USA / CIA  will love to work to break India into smaller countries with South India and  North East being independent countries with Punjab uniting under Pakistan army . The unexplainable generosity of Kartarpur may be really  a beginning of such a plan  with support of Canadan/ British Khalistanis .

The best option is if the  Pakistan army permit friendly relation with India with free travel and trade and no insurgency by going back to 1964 position with Kashmir frozen for thirty years. It can solve even the perennial economic problem of Pakistan if the army size can be gradually reduced to three lakhs . Indian investment can take care of the rest. But it requires too much vision and courage in  Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership.

But both China and USA will secretly sabotage such plan as it does not suit their geo political calculations . ‘Modi ka yaar hai gaddar hai ‘ type slogans will be telecast over the paid media on all channels endlessly and no Pakistani leader will dare taking such a step .All civilian prime ministers in India and Pakistan have wanted to end hostilities and have normal friendly relations spoilt unnecessarily by General Ayub Khan feeling threatened by Fatima Jinnah in presidential elections. But all such leaders have them were shown their place by the army . A visionary army chief like Turkey’s Kamal Pasha,  is too much to expect in the hate driven Pakistan.

However if the friendly Pakistan will remain an illusive dream , defanged Pakistan with out nukes, split into five countries is the second best option for India  . But China and USA will like to have pound of flash in this game . India has to think of a win- win solution for all three as well as contain Iran , Afghanistan and Russian ambitions  . If even this  is not possible , a moth eaten Pakistan with a very weak economy , just able to feed its population with some international aid like Palestine , is the easiest global solution. But its uncontrollable army will keep using the bogey of Indian threat to keep its iron fisted rule intact on the helpless nation . India has to learn to live with a truant troublesome neighbour and balance its nuisance  with greater terror and massive war threat .

Another option is for India is to grow like China for next twenty years and contain and limit the Chinese  ambitions in Indian ocean . But if the six  years of absolute Modi rule has not arrested decline in economy,how to grow at ten percent ?

Unfortunately Pakistan cannot produce a Gandhi and has to pay the price with its eternal poverty unless it discovers huge oil and gas field like Kuwait. But even if such a field is discovered, its army will seize it to fuel its global power , Ghazwa e hind and corruption dreams .

So dear Pakistanis and Indians are doomed either way !