क्या पाकिस्तान का पुनर्विभाजन भारत के हित मैं है: राजीव उपाध्याय : Break Up of Pakistan : Is It In Our Interest.

क्या पाकिस्तान का पुनर्विभाजन भारत के हित मैं है

राजीव उपाध्याय

पाकिस्तान मैं आई एस आई का एक गुर्गा ज़ैद हामिद, टीवी चैनलों पर बहुत प्रचार कर रहा है की अमरीका भारत व् इजराइल की मदद से पाकिस्तान समेत इस्लामिक देशों का विभाजन करने की प्लान बना रहा है . भारत मैं भी रोज़ रोज़ के आतंकवादी गतिविधियों को रोकने का अच्छा समाधान मानने वालों की संख्या बढ़ रही है .परन्तु क्या पाकिस्तान का पुनर्विभाजन भारत के हित मैं है ?इस के लिए यह देखना आवश्यक हैं की बंगला देश के सृजन से क्या भारत को कुछ लाभ मिला ? क्या विभाजन के बाद पंजाबी पाकिस्तान और ताकतवर नहीं हो जायेगा ? क्या हम अमरीका को इस विभाजन के बाद रोक सकेंगे ? यदि रूस और चीन ने पाकिस्तान की वैसी ही मदद की जैसी अमरीका ने अफ़ग़ानिस्तान की की थी तो जो पाकिस्तान मैं गृह युद्ध होगा क्या हम उससे अछूते रह पाएंगे . हाँ अमरीका व् अफ़ग़ानिस्तान को इसका बहुत फायदा पहुंचेगा .चीन को रोकने मैं भी अमरीका को मदद मिल जाएगी . इस लेख मैं इन्हीं परिस्थितियों का विश्लेषण है.

Break Up of Pakistan : Is It In Our Interest.

Like any patriotic Indian, I hate the Pakistani terrorism , its unprovoked military attacks on us , its ISI , its nuclear arsenal and more than anything its unfounded hatred for India. In the last sixty seven years except in 1971 which was their creation , India has not interfered in Pakistani affairs . It has not invaded even Bhutan so how can it invade Pakistan . So why should Pakistani fear us and ISI target us in Mumbai , Parliament , Kargil after Lahore Bus etc .

I am even more sure that I do not want them anywhere near me. Unlike the celebrated German unification , Akhand Bharat is today like plague ,  a born disaster . I do not want their trade or music or Cricket or any other thing . It is because they are infested with highly contagious madarsa mindset and any contact with them is not worth even if means losing a few billion dollars of profitable trade .
But simultaneously I find no reason to hate its moderate, peace loving educated liberals and ordinary family oriented people ( not mullahs and madarsa wallas ) who are closest to us in history , nature , food , clothings and anything called culture.  We cannot forget that they are a part of our history .I realise that ultimately a lasting peace is in our mutual interests .

Jinnah’s statement that ideally India Pakistan should be like USA and Canada could be a good target for the next generation . But with Zia’s hatred filled education in which Pakistan’s history begins from  Mohammed Bin Kasim’s invasion of Sindh  , it is doubtful if  the next generation of Pakistanis will be any better . The change brought in by Zia is irreversible . Lal Masjid episode indicates that mullah mindset is dominating Pakistan and Jinnah’s often quoted preference for secular Pakistan is long forgotten .Even if we have a democracy in Pakistan , it will be like Hamas of Palestine and a helpless spectator to army’s proxy rule.  A democratic Pakistan also should not give us any hope of lasting peace either  .

Under these circumstances it is certain that Pakistan will continue to treat us as enemy and always be unfriendly towards us .

Defanging Pakistan may loo attractive  from our long term security perspective .

In this regard internet is afire with rumors that West led by America is considering dividing the islamic world into smaller countries beginning with Iraq . As per Zaid Hamid , the Lal Topi maverick spokesman of ISI who is articulating these rumors on TV , the big Islamic nations will be broken into smaller countries .Pakistan is to be divided into four countries separating Punjab from Sindh , Pakhtoonistan , Balochistan etc all of which will become independent countries . Just as Pakistan became their ally for Afghanistan against Russians  , India will become their passive ally in dismembering Pakistan but  will not participate  directly by any military means . India will give no direct military provocation to Pakistan or Afghan Talibans .Overt operations will be done by Israel which is hoping to enlarge its territory into a ‘ Greater Israel’ .

My question is that is it in the long term interest of India to support breaking up of  Pakistan with western lead as it seemingly reduces our security risk ?

On face it looks attractive . A broken up Pakistan will stop dreaming of equality and challenging India militarily . It will not be able to support its huge defence budget .Its army will be discredited and may stop interfering in civilian government . It may be more amenable to trade with India.We may get passage to Afghanistan and Iran for surface transport including pipeline . But these superficial assumptions need a reality check .

If we look back we find that the separation of Bangladesh has not helped us in any significant way . Inspite of giving them all the unilateral concessions on Ganga water , teen bigha etc  they have not given us the much needed corridor to Agartala in last thirty six years. They were a safe sanctuary to Assam terrorists . It has continued persecution of hindus. It pushed illegal immigrants into our country .Lately they have even bought two Chinese submarines for sinking whose ships ? They neither gave us their gas nor allowed the Videocon share of gas from Mynamar to reach us .Indian industrial products and industrialists are not heartily welcomed there.In short we have not gained much from our sacrifice in helping in its independence.

On the other hand the resource rich Pakistan has become a bigger threat to us after the breakup .

Muslim character ,as seen in Palestine , does not believe in  forget and forgive till it avenges its insult . Pakistan is today an injured snake (‘ चुटीयल सांप ‘) waiting to bite us after the Bangladesh debacle .

If the poorer parts of Sindh , Balochistan and Pakhtoonistan are made into separate countries,the Punjabi Pakistan will only become stronger . Its army is largely Punjabi and will remain with Punjabi Pakistan along with the complete defence equipment . If it is made land locked it will create more problem by denying Sindh the share from the Indus water till it gets free access to Karachi port .It will become our problem ultimately . As far as reducing the nuclear threat is concerned unless we destroy Kahuta and their nuclear arsenal so completely and disband its army , no permanent benefit will accrue to us .

We will not get access to Irania’s gas reserves as Pakistan will still block it unless it is a part of armistic treaty . Even then covert disruptions will continue. Even if its army is  made to surrender once it will resurface as China and Saudi Arabia will provide it the money for arms again . Even if America uses Israel to destroy Kahuta completely , I am not sure whether some residual scientists will not be able to assemble the nuclear bomb again clandestinely in our backyard or some muslim country. Also Russians are against Balkanisation of Pakistan and may ironically help them. It will lead to a long civil war in Pakistan which may not be in our interests as we cannot seal our borders and will be flooded with refugees.

So ultimately even after dismemberment  Punjabi Pakistan will remain an equally big problem for us . Only the American problem in Afghanistan will be reduced particularly if Sindh gives free access to Afghanistan from Karachi port .Also Sindh will not try to consider Afghanistan its strategic depth and will not arm Afghan Talibans . China’s access or control on  gulf from Gwadar can also be checkmated partially .

Afghanistan will really gain from the division of Pakistan .

Another reason why India may let Pakistan be dismembered by west  is the hope of America helping us in becoming a ten trillion dollar economy .America , has been the dream country of many highly educated Indians and possibly is amongst the best countries today. But its government is as self centered  and self serving as Chinese or Russian or any other government anywhere. Globally American aid  has never promoted self reliance and has only harmed its recipient  in the long run as seen in Egypt , Phillipine , Turkey etc. Only China has been able to use the Americans and come out as a winner . It is because they kept their national pride and national interest above any immediate economic gains . In the end they had all the three . They had courage to crush the  Tiananmen uprising openly inspite of US covert support . They increased manufacturing exponentially and exported in bulk and built the largest foreign exchange reserves . With those reserves they treated western companies just  as  contractors . They did not allow west to even enter much less control their media , economy or the government .

It is well established that we are not China . We are a naturally a weak and fissiparous country so amenable and ready to be divided on caste religion , language , region basis . Americans will be able to penetrate and control our already compromised media , government , judiciary and even army with as much consummate ease as Clive did two hundred fifty years back . In the end we will only have the option of becoming their satellite like Egypt or become the next country to be balkanised .

The only saving grace is that Americans need a strong India to safeguard theirs and Western interest from China in this region as they withdraw and cease to be a super power . They want to control Chinese expansionism and do not want China to gain access to gulf or Iranian gas  via Kashmir which is in our interest too. They will possibly drive them out of Gwadar port . With India willingly joining with Australia and Japan the American dream of checkmating China is complete and that is why possibly Obama has agreed to come as our guest on 26th Jan’15. Chinese expansionism evokes fear in west but we do not, possibly because we are weak and historically a peaceful country and we share the common  Western values, language and Anglo saxon system of justice . It can hopefully be the only reason why we will be allowed to remain a sovereign and undivided country as the sun sets on American century around in 2040.

But as the Pakistan’s famous ex ISI chief General Hameed Gul says that Americans have gained total control over Pakistani government . They used Zia and eliminated him  when he became inconvenient . They supported Musharraf , Benazir , Ayub etc when it suited them .

I fear that even if we remain intact as a nation we may end up losing our real freedom because we are so corrupt and porous . French spy Coomar Narain sold our cabinet proceedings for just 80 paisa a page .

However this time America is sincere in offering to make us a ten trillion dollar economy . It will help India more but will help America too just like China’s cheap exports kept inflation very low in west.We will gain greatly together with America in its resultant economic benefits . But like China we must not become their satellites and increase our export decisively  to have FDI without strings . But Pakistan’s dismemberment is an independent issue and should not be clubbed with our economic ambitions.

At present we are not strong enough either economically or politically to be able to bear this burden of great success .We are vulnerable due to our long  trade deficit and  do not have an economy capable enough to support our global role or vision . We need twenty more years of uninterrupted growth before taking on any global role .Therefore the goal of ten trillion dollar economy should be persued independently and not with the conditionality of accepting a global role in break up of Islamic world as we cannot contain its adverse fall outs fall outs . Also Pakistan should be publicized as an alien asian culture responsible for the  breakup of the Arab world because of its support to Osama , Omar and Taliban .It should not be allowed to be projected as a victim or a source of inspiration for Islamic world to regroup around it .

But all this may be beyond our capabilities .I fear that if things go wrong in Pakistan we will only whet the western appetite and likely to become  the next country on the Balkanisation list after Pakistan .