GOVERNMENT FORMATION IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR POST ELECTIONS

GOVERNMENT FORMATION IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR POST ELECTIONS

Col (Dr) Tej K Tikoo (Retd)

BJP’S Mission 44 + floundered against Kashmir’s well entrenched majoritarian mind set and Ladakh’s  frustration, born out of impatience, in not having its wishes fulfilled by the Central Government during its 6 months rule at the Centre. In addition, there were a few surprises in Jammu division too, which added to BJP falling far short of the objective, i.e., getting over 44 seats; a result that would have seen it forming a government on its own.  In the event, BJP is no longer in the driver’s seat. In the Valley too, the only Party that seems to have bucked the trend is National Conference, which got 15 seats, far more than the public mood, particularly post- floods, reflected. Its good show indicated that PDP, which fell far short of the desired number, has not grown substantially beyond its pocket borough of south Kashmir. Its total tally of 28 seats is neither here nor there. As far as Congress is concerned, it is yet to realize that it no longer rules Delhi, and therefore, it has lost the authority to decide whose back it will ride (among PDP and NC) this time, in order  to continue exercising a vice-like grip on the power structure in the State.

With a hung house in a State whose electorate has, at best, voted for regional aspirations (whatever these are) and at worst, on predominantly religious basis, the likelihood of any two parties coming together to form a stable government in the hapless state is remote. Further, to add to the parties’ woes, even if any two parties join hands, the other two left-out parties will exploit this marriage of convenience; for sure, it will seem like one. In the earlier elections, Congress, being a past master at hunting with the hound and running with the hare, had no qualms in joining either PDP or NC as it had convinced itself and partly the public too, that the only issue of importance during electioneering is secularism vs communalism; a conflict in which it stood firmly for secularism, whatever that meant. Therefore, as per the well established norm practised by it in the past, irrespective of the number of seats it won, Congress could join hands with anyone save the BJP.

After the latest elections, what are the chances of any two parties, seemingly having contradictory interests and conflicting view points on crucial issues, coming together to provide the State with a stable government? PDP, a proponent of continuance of Article 370, removal of AFSPA and Self Governance, expects BJP to tow PDP line on all these issues, while entering into a seat sharing mode with the former. BJP could, perhaps, keep Article 370 in the cold storage and similarly, PDP could be convinced to keep and Self Governance in abeyance during the next six years of sharing power. However, as far as PDP is concerned, repealing of AFSPA cannot wait for six years. It is an issue that is likely to create friction between the two parties in the days to come. As is expected, with terrorism getting a particularly bad name in Pakistan and Modi Government giving no quarter to Pakistan on the Line of Control, acts of violence perpetrated by Pakistan sponsored Jehadis in the State are likely to register a downward slide. Under such circumstances, it will be difficult to keep the repeal of AFSPA from becoming an emotive issue, particularly because Congress and NC will be waiting for an opportunity to exploit even the thinnest of fault lines to put both the parties in the dock. Under the circumstances, BJP will have a difficult choice to make, as Army will be very reluctant to have the Act that gives them a certain degree of legal protection against deadly Fidayeen attacks, repealed. It is also pertinent to mention that APSPA has been one of the most important contributory factors for the defeat of Pakistan’s proxy war in Kashmir during the last 24 years. Tactically, even repealing the act in parts, area wise, is not acceptable to the forces on ground, as those areas where the Act is removed, are likely to turn into safe sanctuaries for the Jehadis, after they have committed an act of terror elsewhere. Besides, PDP, being widely believed to be supported by Hurriyat is unlikely to compromise on its core issues, an act that can be exploited by the NC with grave consequences for the former’s future in the Valley.

NC and BJP seem far more likely to join hands. This is primarily because NC’s core issues, as far as the solution of Kashmir ‘dispute’ is concerned, have always been rhetorical .These issues have been diluted and put in cold storage while NC has been in power, either on its own or in coalition with others; and these very issues have been used to whip up public sentiment while out of power. Kashmiris have been voting for the party despite such flip flops. Even the taint of joining hands with the ‘communal’ BJP is unlikely to have any effect on its popularity in Kashmir; after all, Umar has been a minister in the previous NDA government at the Centre. Besides, NC has got so much used to being in power that it will go to any extent to retain it; even at the cost of being part of the BJP led government. BJP will also find it convenient to have a Kashmir based party as a junior partner in the government, as in that case, it can have its own CM and form a government, deriving its power mainly from Jammu division. Such an arrangement is likely to have a soothing effect on the people of Jammu region, its main voter base, who all along have been complaining of being discriminated against by Valley- centric governments in the past.

For BJP, to form a government by itself or as a major partner in coalition with others is extremely important, not just for its growth beyond Jammu, in Kashmir and Ladakh, but also for its very survival in Jammu region itself. People of Jammu division have overwhelmingly voted for it and BJP needs to retain their confidence. This it can do only by running the government in a manner that can address the pestering grievances of the people of this region. One of the misfortunes of the State has been that it has suffered from poor governance for many decades; a factor that too played its role in the uprising of 1989-90. As a matter of fact, a few years back ‘Transparency International’ a watch dog NGO on international corruption, termed the State as the second most corrupt state in the country. Now, with its own party government headed by a popular, clean and development- oriented Prime Minister ruling at the Centre, BJP is expected to reverse the trend of poor governance that J &K has suffered from, over a period of time.

Congress, having been reduced to fourth position, is doing everything in its power to scuttle any arrangement that can catapult BJP into the driver’s seat. It is even trying to inflame passions in Kashmir by suggesting that BJP will thrust a Hindu CM on Kashmir; forgetting that it was Congress which made A.R.Antulay and Abdul Gafoor as the CMs of predominantly Hindu majority States of Maharashtra and Bihar. What is even worse, it removed a very popular Mohanlal Sukhadia, as CM of another predominantly Hindu State, Rajasthan, and replaced him with Barkatullah Khan, a Muslim. It (Congress) is prodding both NC and PDP to form a grand alliance along with it.Till now, neither PDP nor NC have fallen for this bait, as they have seen through the Congress game of wanting to continue its hold on the power by all means, fair or foul. Besides, people of Jammu will see the design of Congress to form a grand alliance of Kashmir-centric parties, as ganging up of Kashmiris against the people of Jammu region. This can have serious political/ social consequences. This is a risk which even Kashmir-centric parties, sans Congress, will be reluctant to take.

The fact is that BJP cannot be wished away this time round, as it has received an overwhelming endorsement from Jammu division. Any grand alliance formed now by ideologically disparate parties, who are actually sworn enemies of each other, just to deny Jammu its chance to have a say in the formation of the new government, will prove to be a proverbial last straw on the camel’s back. It will inflame passions in Jammu. The proposed grand alliance is, therefore, a non-starter and Congress must get reconciled to the fact that without BJP, no stable or fairly representative government formation is possible in J&K.

As of now, parties are faced with a Hobson’s choice; to be or not to be. If Kashmir- centric parties take counsel from their fears, then J&K is in for a spell of President’s rule, while the State assembly remains in a suspended animation. Ideally, this is not a bad option, as such a possibility can give time enough to various parties to assess their strengths and weaknesses, as also help cool down tempers which were running high due to high decibel electioneering.

You might ask me as to why I have not written anything about our own community. Well, with BJP giving mandate to 4 KPs, and the environment favourable to the Party, this was the best chance to send one of our own to the Assembly. We squandered the opportunity, and in the process, perhaps, burnt our bridges with the only national party that cared for us. More on this, later.