How Unconditional Friendship With India and Retreat in Afghanistan is the Only Way Pakistan Can Save Its Sovereignty

How Unconditional  Friendship With India and Retreat in Afghanistan is the Only Way Pakistan Can Save Its Sovereignty

R.K.Upadhyay

Pakistan is facing an existential crisis by its unmanageable external debts , declining exports and remittance , increasing social intolerance and extremism and global anger and isolation due to its support to international terrorism .It is imminent now that it is sure to surrender of sovereignty to China due to massive and commercially unviable CPEC loans . It needs to do some serious introspection about why its backward part ie Bangladesh has forged ahead in most of social development indices and will overtake it economically in the next five years .

Pakistan has been destroyed by its rogue army’s flawed security narrative and impractical rivalry with its giant neighbor i.e. India. As confirmed by the absolute freedom enjoyed by Maldives , Nepal and Bangladesh that India was never interested in occupation of any other country .India needed a sane and stable buffer state of Pakistan and it really  never faced any existential threat from India .But its rogue army kept raising the Indian bogey just to justify its overwhelming size ,importance , budget and privilege to rule the nation directly or indirectly for ever . Democracy needs a long period to evolve . It has happened in Bangladesh but not in Pakistan.

Pakistan received one third of Indian army at partition inspite of much smaller land mass and should have reduced its army . But it chose to keep increasing the army at the cost of economic development .It should have persuaded Maharaja Of Kashmir to join Pakistan but instead chose to illegally occupy it with Mujahidins thus violating Indian Independence formula of princely states being free to join India or Pakistan . Its politically inept army heads started three wars with India and lost Bangladesh as a result in addition to losing all wars . The army heads from Ayub Khan to Musharraf kept selling its armed forces for foreign aid and led Pakistan into terrorist and extremist mess . It violated international law by its swap deal with North Korea for getting missile technology by proliferating nuclear technology . It sold nuclear technology to Libya, Syria and Iran for small gains thus endangering world peace and security .It harbored the immature ambition of leading the muslim world without any matching resource.

Blinded by its success in Afghanistan it started Its global export of terrorism. Due to its proliferation record , Mumbai and other terror attacks and duplicity in dealing with Taliban , world has now become sick of Pakistan leading to its global isolation .

Lately with the CPEC agreement , it has given China a route to attack middle east and India and endanger the global oil supplies by Chinese naval base at Gwadar . It has gambled much beyond its might and weight on CPEC. It does not have the economy or intellectual ability to be China’s Israel in the region .Neither the West nor the Arab world or India wants China at its door step. Therefore just like Russian occupation of Afghanistan , Pakistan will be destroyed before it permits China to occupy Pakistan . China cannot match the global military might that will be collected to finish Pakistan .

The only option for Pakistan is to think out of box like Dr. Kissienger or even Parvez Musharraf and realise that its game of over ambition ,deceit and cunning is over . The only country that can save it from collapse is India where Pakistanis still enjoy traditional hindu sympathy of being an estranged brother . Indian economic might and global influence can save it from ignominy of being broken into four countries even now .

Pakistan should accept status quo in Kashmir for twenty five years just as China accepted Taiwan’s status with USA and completely stop interference in Indian Kashmir directly or through proxies. It should allow the modern and progressive civilian national government in Afghanistan to function and stop its support to Taliban’s . Peace in Afghanistan and Kashmir is a prerequisite for peace in Pakistan .

Commercially it should grant MFN status to India and permit free movement of goods to Afghanistan , Iran and Central Asia over Pakistan . Project like Iran pipeline to India and share in power generation will give it much cheaper electricity than CPEC . Access to Indian market will boost its economy if the currency is realistically valued . Pakistan can export cement , coal , sugar and agricultural products to India . Lahore will develop much more by FDI as Pakistani labour and land is much cheaper. At present auto giant use Thailand for component manufacture . Free imports from India will make goods cheaper in Pakistan and Pakistan will get much needed revenue from custom duty and transit rights . China cannot offer these advantages as Pakistan cannot export anything to China from Gwadar.

The bigger beneficial influence will be cultural . The greater cultural contacts will help in emergence of old liberal Pakistan again thus restricting the extremist narrative developed after Zia ul Haq. Changing the hate filled text books and restraining hate mongers will be essential .

It is politically a very difficult task . It amounts to admitting the flawed narrative developed over last seventy years but a determined leader can do it . After all a Narsimha Rao heading a minority government in India was able to transform the Indian economy . With Nawaz and Zardari out , a new leader may not have the courage to do it with the adamant rogue army obstructing the change .

In that case the breakup of Pakistan cannot be avoided as Pakistan’s options are closing rapidly .