Beyond BNP Victory And Yes Vote In Bangladesh : India Should Patiently Wait , Re affirm old Agreements On Connectivity , Trade and Security In A Comprehensive Review Before Starting Any Piecemeal Negotiations On River Waters Etc ,
Rajiv Upadhyay
Now that BNP party of Tarique Rahman has won a land slide victory in Bangladesh , along with Yes vote for constitutional reforms proposed by Yunus Government.
What should India do ?
Nothing beyond extending an invitation to visit India at the earliest .
It will take six months for effervescence to settle down . Soon it will be clear that a democratic government committed to people’s welfare has no options but to be friendly with its neighbour who has been its most time tested friend . It will indeed first show friendship with Pakistan but it is a beggar country which cannot help Bangladesh economically . China is a tougher nut to crack but USA will be watching Bangladesh too . Its Deep State plans to create a Christian country in North East will continue. Finally except minor changes old ties , connectivity by rail , road , ports and airports will be resumed along with medical tourism , if we do not hurry or lose patience .
But Security has to be a red line which we must convey unambiguously.
We were working to restore Agartala Dhaka rail link along with Kolkata Dhaka , New Jalpaiguri Dhaka rail links . Chittagong port was to be used for Tripura supplies . Goods trains through movement to north east from Kolkata was another project .They all are mutually beneficial and ultimately will be restored in a year or so. Indo Bangladesh trade too was mutually beneficial . Jamat will try playing the Islamic card but Turkey and Pakistan have to be pushed out ultimately . Only India , China and USA will be the big players in Bangladesh . We have to save our North East connectivity and end any covert support to terrorism .
India , fortunately patiently bore Yunus Shenanigans including his blunder of calling north east land locked in China . Luckily China did not take the bait as it had nothing to gain by disturbing BRICS / SCO in which Indian cooperation is valuable.
Now we have stalled railway and pipeline projects , suspended medical tourism , limited rice and cotton supply and blocked airports and land routes for exports with Bangladesh . With time public pressure will get all these restored if we let their public demonstrations of independence pass without reaction .
Release of suspected terrorists and commutation of death sentence of Paresh Baruah were damaging but he is a fugitive and so it is only symbolic gesture .
Indo Bangladesh trade in 2025 remained 13.5 billion dollars not a great decrease from its peak value. So future is only brighter although it may import cotton from USA instead Yarn from India. But sooner the neighbourly economics will take over particularly if Bangladesh wants land route opened along with access to Indian airports for exports.
Turkey is only trying to fish in troubled water and Erdogan needs to be settled like Muhammed Mahathir of Malysia.
But we must be militarily prepared for a two and a half front war and quick annexation of Rangpur if any menacing moves are made to cutoff our Siliguri chicken neck. Acquisition of 114 Rafaels and SU57 is a right step in that direction . More needs to be done .
Like Israel , we should be able to annihilate its Airforce and navy before it ever threatens Kolkata or acquire a dirty bomb from Pakistan .
But our hope is that Like Maldives and Sri Lanka , we will be able to out last our enemies by our diplomatic stamina .
