पाकिस्तान से युद्ध भारतीय अर्थ व्यवस्था को दस साल पीछे धकेल देगा : War With Pakistan Will Push India’s Economy Back by a Decade

  पाकिस्तान से युद्ध भारतीय अर्थ व्यवस्था को दस साल पीछे धकेल देगा

यह लेखक के अपने विचार हैं और इनका कोई सत्यापन नहीं किया गया है .- patriotsforum

इस लेख के अनुसार यदि भारत पाकिस्तान मैं यदि अभी युद्ध हो जाय तो भारतीय अर्थ व्यवस्था दस साल पीछे हो जाएगी . १९९९ के कारगिल  के युद्ध के कीमत ५००० करोड़ रूपये प्रति सप्ताह थी थी . आज का युद्ध लगभग ५००० करोड़ रूपये प्रतिदिन की कीमत से लड़ा जाएगा . भारतीय रुपे की कीमत सौ रूपये का एक डालर हो जायेगी . हमारा वित्तीय घटा लगभग आठ लाख करोड़ रूपये हो जाएगा . इसलिए लेखक इ अनुसार भारत को राजनितिक व् कूटनीतिक समाधान खोजने चाहिये .

( परन्तु पाकिस्तान की अर्थ व्यवस्था हमसे भी चौपट है . उसे न १९४७ मैं ण १९६५ मैं न ही कारगिल या मुंबई  के समय भारत की विशाल सेना से भय नहीं लगा . इसलिए कूटनीतिक समाधानों से पाकिस्तान काबू नहीं आने वाला है . चीन किसी भी कूटनीतिक समाधान को सफल नहीं होने देगा . इस्लामिक राष्ट्र कश्मीर पर सदा से पकिस्तान के साथ हैं . इसलिए हमें संयुक्त राष्ट्र संघ से भी कोई आशा नहीं रखनी चाहिए .

अंततः भारत को अपने आप इस लड़ाई को जीतना होगा . इसलिए हर दुस्साहस पर पाकिस्तान को करारी चोट देना अति आवश्यक है . उसे भारत पर हमला एक अत्यध्क सरल कार्य नहीं लगना चाहिए .

                                     —- राजीव उपाध्याय )

Economy Would Be Pushed Back by a Decade

It would then, over time, be in a much better position to sharply increase its military spending from the paltry 1.7 percent of GDP at present, contribute along the way towards regional security, and grow stronger with each passing year, both economically and militarily.

China’s $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan is its meal ticket to economic revival, and this is at the core of the true narrative of present developments.

It has already occasioned joint protection of the work ongoing in Gilgit/Baltistan, and mass arrests of protesters there, even before India asserted its claim on PoK and the territory, just five weeks ago.

At the other end of the proposed CPEC, in Balochistan thousands have been killed ever since India declared its support for its independence movement. Many more ethnic

Balochi men, women, and children have been abducted and gone missing. All this is now fodder for the mill at the UNGA in New York for the first time. But apart from the likelihood that we would lose this war, given China’s vast military superiority, we would certainly set our economy back by a decade at least.

Likely Impact of Indo-Pak War on Economy

• Compared to the Kargil war in 1999 that cost an estimated Rs 5,000 crore a week then, a war with Pakistan now will cost Rs 5,000 crore per day.
• Even if the war lasts for a fortnight, it would cost India at least Rs 2,50,000 crore.
• An Indo-Pak war will raise India’s fiscal deficit by 50 percent to about Rs 8 lakh crore.
• The war will give a severe blow to the FDI/FII investment and can bring down the value of rupee to Rs 100 to an US dollar.

Dampening Effect on the Market

Our GDP rates would plummet. A per day cost of war in 2016 would cross Rs 5,000 crore, considering Kargil, a one-theatre operation, in 1999, was estimated to cost between Rs 5000-10,000 crore a week.

A 14-day ‘short war’ today would cost at least Rs 2,50,000 crore, assuming multiple fronts and contingencies, and raise the nation’s fiscal deficit by 50 percent to about Rs 8 lakh crore, up from Rs 5.32 lakh crore in 2015-16.

This was a healthy 3.9 percent of GDP, down from 4.1 percent the year before. This

hypothetical war will also have a sharp knock-on inflationary effect.

It would also ruin the upward trend in FDI/ FII investment, take a 50 percent hit on the bourses, drop the rupee to Rs 100 to the US dollar, put paid to our high tech manufacturing ambitions and render bleak the chances of a revival in the near term.

Looking for an Alternative to War

A war with Pakistan now would suit China very well though, and eliminate a strong rival in contention. China’s determination to protect the JeM, keep India out of the NSG, shower nuclear power stations, military equipment, enter into defence pacts with Pakistan, has to be also viewed in this context.

However, this is not a ‘do-nothing’ prescription against Pakistan’s very competent ‘sub-conventional warfare’ model.

If India changes course, to stick, no matter how insolent the provocation, to responding likewise, we can give tit-for-tat indefinitely, and even make some pre-emptive thrusts and parries. Honour and blood will be served, while our economy keeps chugging forward.

likewise, we can give tit-for-tat indefinitely, and even make some pre-emptive thrusts and parries. Honour and blood will be served, while our economy keeps chugging forward.

Ramp Up India’s Defence

India can ramp up its own ‘defensive offence’ programme, long advocated by spymaster and NSA Ajit Doval, and create mayhem in India’s legally owned PoK/Gilgit-Baltistan.

We can also fan the revolt in independence-seeking Balochistan till success is theirs. With these regions breaking away as the ultimate objective, other regions, like NWFP, and Sindh, are likely to join the revolt.

We can provide men, materials, training, diplomatic and economic support in the long-term. We can use proxies, ‘non-state actors’, specialised operatives, soldiers, commandos – all being mufti and with ‘plausible deniability’ stencilled on them.

And this, with plenty of scalps taken to assuage what Pakistanis have been doing to us for over three decades. This slow burn would also prevent China from wading in, and blaming

us for the privilege!

Stick to Diplomatic Route

Besides, our diplomatic effort to isolate Pakistan as a terrorist state is working. Not only is it under censure from America, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, but also from Afghanistan and Bangladesh, in the SAARC.

More condemnation, perhaps even economic sanctions, may well be on its way.

But not only does Pakistan and China want to seize the Kashmir Valley to secure the CPEC and water flows, humiliating India and trashing its global aspirations, are also their important objectives.

This diabolical joint plan is meant to be decisive, but how can it be, when it is essentially a ‘war of a thousand cuts’, in operation since the 1980s?