Back From Friend To Frenemy : Post Ukrain, USA Reverses Its Position Ignoring Talbot- Jaswant Singh Dialogue : Alternatives Growth Strategies For India .

Back From Friend To Frenemy : Post Ukrain, USA Reverses Its Position Ignoring Talbot- Jaswant Singh Dialogue : Alternatives Growth Strategies For India .

Rajiv Upadhyay

India and USA are back to old games under Biden  .

Ukrain war has been an education for so many countries and people including key players like Biden , Putin , Zelensky , EU , Germany ,UK and minor players like India , Turkey , Japan and Australia.The worst lesson is for Putin who had thought that war possibly be won in a month at most. The strong American and Nato backing was not foreseen . It has also revealed that in weapon technology it has been badly left behind to the extent that mighty USSR had to buy weapons from Iran . Its tanks , airforce has been made a lame duck just waiting to be shot by American weapons.

Biden and EU  had not hoped Russia will not only survive sanctions but Russia has done far better planning and it is Europe which is suffering and running for cover for energy and food shortage . Europe has discovered what Kissinger had once said ‘ America is dangerous as enemy but fatal as friend ‘.  Europe and the world economy has been so badly destroyed by the high energy prices and resultant inflation . Now the likely recession is haunting these countries. Japan and Germany will arm themselves as they have learnt that USA cannot be trusted . USA has become a hate symbol amongst poor nations whose economies have been destroyed by USA unnecessarily by prolonging the Ukrain war which is really only a fight for US hegemony and sale of US weapons.

Luckily India guessed it right and paid back Russia for its support in Bangladesh war in 1971 by  partially neutralizing the western sanctions by buying huge quantities of Russian coal ,oil, gas, steel and fertliser etc and supplying vital tea coffee etc . although Europe bought much more oil and gas as it had no option . India saved its economy from free fall due to heavy discount given by Russia which contained inflation . It used its friendship in securing Russian promise to not attack the Ukrain nuclear power plants thus relieving west.

But USA is very angry with India for supporting Russia in this crucial hour . It has forgotten that Jaswant Singh had made it clear in his foundational dialogues with Talbot that India will keep its independent foreign policy particularly regarding Russia . He had specifically said India will be like De Gaul of France and not a subservient UK. USA is back at punishing India by its balancing games with supporting Pakistan against India and getting Germany raise the UN in Kashmir issue .

USA possibly could even be behind  UK going back on FTA .Like Putin , Modi has planned for this reaction of USA . Japan , in spite of its limited conflict with Russia still will trust India much more . Similarly Australia cannot ignore Indian support when China tried to choke it. In coming years west will realise again that India is too big to be ignored or made an enemy. But Indian honeymoon with USA is over . USA will try to slow down India’s growth to the extent that it does not become another China . In fact Paul Keating former Prime Minister of Australia said that India India will just lock itself in a room in a western conflict with China. Ultimately even Russia , China, EU  and UK will not want India becoming another China and will support USA’s containment efforts.

India should join with transferable and common western weapon system in eastern sector  and prepare and offer to protect  free shipping on international sea lanes from Africa to Malacca Straits in case of war to sooth the western nerves over Indian neutrality .

So what are the economic and strategic options available to India and their priority ?

1. Indian economic progress is fragile and really a house of cards and it has been lately punching much above its weight just as in Nehru era . It should realise its economic and military weakness and limitations.
2. Remove economic dependence on FDI and Remittances for the balance of payment . Indian exports have to be one trillion dollars by 2030. We should have a reserve of $1000 billion with eighty percent of it in in oil , coal, gas , fertilizer, foodgrain , gold and tradable mixed securities .We should be able to last a six month long sea blockade by our reserves.
3. Self reliance in energy , fertilizer, medicines , cooking oil , ammunition , major defence equipment etc . Government is aware but helpless so far on export front in particular.
4. Increasing new defence procurement to at least 50 billion dollars annually . Import of latest technology must continue as any indigenous technology will become out dated soon . Defence chiefs must be relied and trusted more and ignorant Babus should be down graded in defence ministry . Chiefs should be free to import latest technology , weapons , critical spares and ammunition without any political or bureaucratic control except post audit as done by Nehru for atomic energy . Weak countries will be more at risk of war particularly India. Politicisation of services is dangerous for country and armed forces must be kept out of courts , politics , Babus or media interference .
5. Russian success can lead to neo expansionism in neighborhood by China and US success can lead to neo colonialism . It is a choice between the devil and deep sea . We have to be ready for both.
6. We have to be more prepared for modern asymmetric warfare including neo colonialist plans of balkanization of India particularly breakage of north east and south India by igniting the religious , caste , language fault lines the way British did in pre independence era .Misuse of Indian democracy has to be countered by activating our neglected education system . Hindu muslim card has been over played and needs to be cooled by both sides . An economically weak north is dangerous for unity and the regional disparity needs to be reduced .Our traditional family system is a great source of strength and needs to be protected by western on slaught . Muslim marriage and personal laws have some merit and need to be studied .
7. India’s relations with medium sized independent countries that can stand US , China and Russian pressure must be strengthened . There is need to neutralise Turkey- Pakistan axis as done for UAE and Saudi . But we need to to learn from Ghauri , Mir Zaffar , Shivaji- Afzal Khan- Shaista khan etc . as well as Farzan gas field and Kudremukh treachery. These countries can ditch alliances or deals for higher gains .
8. Like Germany in second world war, our NSA should have an experienced technocrat as  Dy NSA dedicated to identify and ensure adequate supply of critical raw materials in war and peace and uninterrupted factory working during war .
9. We need to make our aid more directed , result oriented and a tool for effective foreign policy . China was respected and feared more even before Xi . Our aid is reactive and not proactive . India should be prepared to help the major western countries in maintaining two percent growth to avoid stoking of neo colonialists fires .

Generally avoiding wars and taking sides in others’ conflicts and balancing our purchases  will keep India growing for the next two decades which will be traumatic for Western hegemony  .