Reconstruction of Pakistan With Indian Help : Going Back To 1958 Atmosphere Of Indus Treaty
Rajiv Upadhyay
Pakistan ,with its 130 billion dollar external debt, of which about 90 billion is due payment in next three years, is in no position to come out of looming economic bankruptcy even with IMF bail out. In addition, normally it has a current account deficit of about 20 billion dollars if all raw materials are supplied for industry and agriculture. The Sindh flood damage needs at least 10 billion dollars to restore agriculture and rehabilitate population safely. Experience has shown that inflation cannot be controlled without stablising Rupee – dollar exchange rate .( A Blue Print Of Re Building Pakistan : Will Any Leader Have The Courage To Face And Tell The Truth To Public . | Patriots Forum (patriotsforumindia.com)
It finally involves at least fifty billion dollar investment in next five years apart from rescheduling of non IMF / World Bank Loans.
In this part we will examine further the path needed to be taken . Neither USA nor Saudi Arabia nor UAE will fund this investment due to lack of trust ,donor fatigue and their pre occupation with their own problems . China has never systematically developed economy of any nation. It has generally bribed third world leaders and signed contracts detrimental to host countries including CPEC in Pakistan . Sino- Pakistan alliance is basically an anti Indian military alliance .
So even India will not be interested in bailing out Pakistan the way it has done for Sri Lanka or Bangladesh . Yet India, ironically , is the only country that can take Pakistan out of trouble with a broad package discussed in the last article .
After commissioning of Chabahar port, Pakistan has no real value for transit trade with India even, as Afghanistan is too unstable and risky for major investments. India – Iran – Russia route being developed is far safer. Pakistan as a nuisance creator in UN / SCO etc. will just be ignored as worthless for Indian response.Therefore there are only three options for big Indo Pak cooperation .
- Return to 2019 Stage : Resumption of just trade of say two billion dollars will not attract India as it is too small to matter to make any shift in approach.
- 2008 Stage : Gen Musharraf for all his faults, kept his word and stopped infiltration and cross border terrorism. This coupled with Zardari’s opening of trade except a list of 1200 prohibited items could be second stage from where India will try to mitigate shortages of commodities in Pakistan by supplying items from Wagah or Munabao border . But it will only be a short term palliative because Pakistan has no money to import raw materials for industry, fertilisers etc . India will not supply on credit as it will never be returned.
- 1958 Stage: Negotiating Indus Water Treaty and Pursuit of The Path of Mutual Growth . Pakistan became totally self sufficient in food only in 1970s . It would not have been possible without the Indus Water Treaty and subsequent construction of Mangla and Tarbela dam and expansion of canal network which also led to the rise of water table for two lakh tube wells. No foreign aid project has brought so much direct and indirect benefit to Pakistan although in India it is considered a sell out of two third of the water of the six rivers . CPEC in comparison is a real sell out of Pakistan’s interests by creating wasteful roads and ports of no real use to Pakistan but out of huge and costly Chinese loans . Zardari and Nawaz’s unilateral peace overtures with India lead to Mumbai and Pathankot. So one need to proceed with caution.
- So why would India risk its money in developing a belligerent Pakistan?
- It will not!
- But if accompanied by real , durable and visible change of heart in both military and population, to return to real roots , Saudi Arabia , UAE along with Russia may do so if India plans ,executes and operate the projects and gives monetary guaranty as it has given to IMF for loans for Sri Lanka.
- If back to 1958 spirit of seeking mutual growth , path it could be as below :
1. India to be given duty free access to Pakistani market at par with China. India to supply seeds , fertiliser, pesticide for the next two crops at Indian subsidised rates as direct loan to farmers on yield sharing basis .Loan to be repaid before next crop.
2. India to extend FCI type grain storage facility , minimum price support for wheat,cotton,oil seed , dals and paddy crops also at Indian rates. This will increase productivity and make repayment easier . Help in controlling food inflation by supplying short supply items from India at Indian rates but Pakistan has to control smuggling.
3. Restart all textile mills by supplying raw materials including electricity , gas on Indian rates as loan to be returned from sales proceeds .
4. Steel Mill and PIA to be taken over without staff or liabilities and to be turned into profitable enterprise. Needs to be done with a parliament resolution to keep courts and NAB out which had killed the earlier attempts.
5. Thar coal and cement production to be doubled for export . Boilers based on imported coal and furnace oil to be converted if technically and economically feasible. India to buy surplus cement , steel, coal , cotton cloth , fruits , vegetables, ghee etc .
India to assist in setting up ancilliary units and factories with guaranteed buy back. Indian FDI to be given ten year tax holiday duty free imports and free land with power and water connection as being done in India at present.
6. Large scale minerals , oil and gas exploration based on assured commercial return to be undertaken . 7.India to construct four or five large dams for power generation on Indus river in India . This will help in draught years and flood control in Pakistan without any expenditure . Also due to climate change it is very essential due to changing rain pattern.
8. Irrigation in Sindh, KP and Balochistan to be increased by construction of Kalabagh dam and barrages but owned and supervised by World Bank for twenty years for ensuring fair distribution of water and electricity between provinces . Punjab has benefitted already enormously from Mangla and Tarbela dam and diversion of funds from East Pakistan and Baluchistan for creating Islamabad and other projects.
9. Lahore – Karachi rail route to be upgraded to 22.5 tonne axle load and 26 coach passenger trains.
10.Indian telecom, media and other companies to be permitted operation in Pakistan. Indian Railway to run trains on revenue sharing basis .
Even if it looks favoring India but in reality it is a very risky investment for India and associates due to very adverse ground conditions in Pakistan.
It needs very sober leaders with trusted record and who do not have to play to gallery for public support. Indian PM Narendra Modi can do it if convinced of sincerity this time .
Can some one do it in Pakistan ?
