A Blue Print Of Re Building Pakistan : Will Any Leader Have The Courage To Face And Tell The Truth To Public .
Rajiv Upadhyay
The paper intends to lay a blue print for reconstruction of Pakistan’s economy but it is important to begin from the beginning ie 1947 and trace evolution of Pakistan with time .
Pakistan was started on a tilted foundation . As brought out by Hussain Haqqani , Pakistan got 17 % of resources and 33% of army of united India . It should have thought of building its economy and downsizing its army . But in the first budget itself its founder, Late M.A.Jinnah, allotted 75% of budget to defence . This tradition of neglect of economy and over emphasis on defence got accentuated as decades passed and three martial laws were imposed . The generals got huge economic and military aid for serving US interests even at a huge social cost to the nation . Unable to reduce the defence budget , civilian governments were forced to seek huge foreign loans to show matching development to voters and fund the next elections from cuts . The visible progress and prosperity of Punjab in the initial decades was partly due to green revolution but also due to diversion of the resources from East Pakistan , Baluchistan and even Karachi to Lahore and Punjab .
At the time of independence eighty percent of industrial goods were imported from India . Dispute over devaluation of Indian Rupee in 1949 reduced the Indian share in trade .This reduction continued as the trading relations between the two countries plummeted to the ever lowest in 2019 when the trade was totally suspended over Kashmir . India is the only country that still can meet 60 – 70 % of the import requirements of Pakistan and support its development. But it needs a great leader in Pakistan and public education and support . Indian sensibilities have been badly hurt by Mumbai ,attack on parliament , Kargil , Pathankot , Uri and Pulwama and continued infiltration. They need to be assuaged adequately and assurance on non reversal will be essential .
Blue Print of A Self Reliance vs Foreign Aid / FDI based Reconstruction of Economy :
With the present donor fatigue in USA ,Europe ,Saudi Arabia , China and UAE and with more than 100 billion dollar debt and flood ravaged agriculture, it is too late and impossible to rebuild Pakistan’s Economy from national resources and efforts . Neither the media nor the leaders are telling masses the grave economic reality and the inevitable need for one generation to sacrifice for building the future . They are inept and waiting and hoping for the horse to fly ,while still fighting to grab the power to really starve the nation .
A slightly softer rebuilding is possible only with massive Indian aid !
Indian industries can meet the entire import requirements of Pakistan except gas oil and fertiliser. Even in energy, Indian help can reduce the import dependence by new explorations . With the present $1500 per capita income , Pakistan is still better than many Indian states like Uttar Pradesh ( population 22 crore) , Bihar,Orissa , Jharkhand etc . So Pakistan’s economy can be gainfully dovetail into Indian economy with out any serious mutual problem . However Pakistan is totally safe as India or no other country will ever like to enter Pakistan with its terrorism, religious extremism , Durand line problems and corruption ridden society. It needs a stable buffer state and Pakistan is quite suitable for this purpose.
The road map to rebuilding can be as below
- Freeze Kashmir, Siachin , Sir creek problems for thirty years . This will build the peace and trust and eventually start the FDI inflow into Pakistan without which economic reconstruction is not possible .
- Reduce defence expenditure by 40 % and gradually reduce the army to 3 lacs like Iran , Iraq, Bangladesh etc . Use retired soldiers for national projects .Stop nuclear and missile program and hand over control over existing nuclear weapons and long range missiles to a UN designated body which should also give security guarantee for thirty years .This will permit world to breath freely with out terrorist take over fears .Bangladesh , Nepal , Sri Lanka have remained sovereign countries without these weapons .
- Use these savings to support agriculture by subsidizing inputs like fertilizer , seeds , electricity for tube wells and sound support price for Wheat , rice , cotton, dal and oil seed crops . Build six months food grain storage facility to take care of draughts etc . Build dams to eventually store at least six month’s water . Develop and Improve irrigation in Sindh . Ultimately prepare Pakistan for supporting thirty percent extra population .
- Start family planning drive like Bangladesh , India etc .to reduce birth rate to 2.5 per thousand in ten years.
- Open three major Information Technology Institutes, three University Hospitals and medical colleges and one bio technology college with international collaboration in the next ten years .
- Lease 3000 square km of contiguous desert land to India/ UAE consortium for thirty years for building massive solar parks and supply cheap electricity for agriculture and textile industry . Leasing of land is essential to eliminate inevitable corruption with local control. Coal mining , Oil , gas and mineral exploration to be doubled with fair return model to India/UAE consortium .
- Impose minimum tax on all shops,businesses, professionals and farms above fifty acres .Dual foreign exchange rate for five years . All unnecessary foreign travel to be done with no allocation of foreign exchange . All transfer of funds to foreign countries to be reduced by fifty percent .All imports except energy , fertilizer , medicines and textile raw materials to be levied 150 % import duty . Consumer items imports to be banned with two years notice . Five year protection to be given new industries set up for import substitution .Gifts from overseas Pakistanis to relatives and friends to be incentivised .
- All loss making public sector undertakings to be privatized and sold in the next three years without judicial intervention .
- Support development of cement and other industries based on local raw material . India to possibly permit limited access to Indian market to such industries .
- Pakistan to permit road and rail traffic to Afghanistan and Central Asia , Iran etc.from Wagah border. Free tourist traffic on nominated routes with approved agencies . Very easy group tourist Visas to senior citizens and students . Hateful education to be stopped in school text books .
- Pakistani Railways to be upgraded to 22.5 ton axle load and higher speed on trunk routes .CNG Buses and Diesel multiple unit trains to be introduced in large number for public transport . Cars and motor cycles usage to be seriously reduced .
Alternative FDI Based Model For Economic Development
It is possible to avoid these politically explosive steps if some country is willing to invest 150 billion dollars in Pakistan . But it is impossible at present and ultimately Pakistan has to become self reliant . This price needs to be paid in the larger national interests .
This proposal will be called a sell out !
But look at Palestine . Impractical rigidity made it reject all practical proposals and today it has lost every thing !
India can easily live like this for hundred years .But Pakistan has only one cultural brother who still values it .
In the last fifty years, so much ill will has been generated between the two countries that selling this model will not be easy . Hate and Warmongering has destroyed Pakistan . It needs to be reversed . But like Anwar Sadat extreme reaction is even possible but Egypt has regained its lost lands and has lived in peace due to Sadat.
Can Pakistan produce an Anwar Sadat ?
