India In Retreat : Arab Spring Conspiracy Against Soft India or Just A Fall Out Of Bad Economy
Rajiv Upadhyay
The last one year has been quite bad for India both nationally and internationally. Its confidence was shaken to core by the lowest economic growth rate recorded in a decade and the simultaneous worldwide spurt in anti India propaganda .
Industrial as well as agricultural growth plummeted to unprecedented low figures almost without warning. Alternatively, possibly the Government machinery under Finance Ministry had kept churning out false statistics of growth for first five years which were finally exposed by the duo of former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and economic advisor Arvind Subramaniam . Suddenly the cat was out of the bag . Although the industrial/economic stagnation was being hidden carefully from public but it was known to insiders for a long time. In the absence of real visible growth, as witnessed in Vajpayee & Man Mohan era ,there was no equivalent creation of new jobs . Suddenly there were no takers for engineering and MBA seats because engineers were lining up for peons’ jobs in the government. Bulk jobs are created by growth not by a running an existing industry. GST and demonetization were partially guilty but they were not the only reason for the economic collapse. The economy has been in decline for nine long years . The low hanging fruits were already picked up. There were no new ideas and it was made to play second fiddle to electoral politics. In absence of real growth, the demand faltered and suddenly the sky came crashing down with the news of five lakh unsold cars and similar number of unsold houses . Even the sale of under wears and biscuit’s declined with Parle G firing thousands of workers . Salt was rubbed into educated people’s wounds by advice like opening ‘Pakoda Stall ‘. The banks and financial institutions started reporting huge losses and NPAs . The rug was finally pulled from under the feet of the overconfident government.
There was nothing left to hide anymore and the world knew that the Indian economic miracle was over , at least temporarily !
This lead to another unforeseen reaction in ‘when cat is away mice will play style’. The anti Indian forces both with in and out side India , which had gone in hibernation by the massive electoral victory of PM Modi , got a chance to revive their ‘ breaking India ‘campaign .
They were helped by the politically confident government removing the article 370 from J&K . It was greatly welcomed as a long overdue step by the Indian public . But it created a security and law and order problem by the back lash from entrenched circles in Kashmir . Pakistan under Imran Khan jumped on to band wagon by internationalizing the Kashmir issue . It helped him divert public attention from his dismal all round failure particularly its failing economy . His anti India rhetoric in UNGA and subsequently, pleased his masters i.e. the Pakistani army and ISI . Ayodhya judgement , triple talaq , CAA and the national population register were all well considered and long overdue steps . Even the likely to come population regulation bill are crying need of the country . None of them were discriminatory for those muslims who stayed in India in 1947 but Ummah consideration prevailed and muslim in India united to support illegal Bangladeshi immigrants and Rohingyas , who were taken mysteriously from Mynamar border to Jammu allegedly to neutralize Dogras . But unintentionally , as in second world war , we opened too many fronts at the same time . The BJP’s loss of state elections in MP, Rajasthan , Chhatis garh and Maharashtra gave congress and left a ray of hope of revival and staging a come back . It openly played on minority fears and caused a national turmoil . The old unity on terror and foreign affairs is gone with the likes of Siddhus and Aiyars openly espousing the Pakistani cause .
The sudden support of Pakistan in US media on Kashmir , UK ‘s proposed referendum on Khalistan , EU resolutions on various Indian issues tabled by NGOs , Pakistan’s opening of Kartarpur corridor are all indications of emerging anti India front in international circles . We should have taken note when Dr Swamy was ostracized in Harvard and Oxford . We ignored it at our cost . Today Nepal , Maldive , Bangla Desh are no more reliably in Indian camp .We have been isolated in ASEAN on RCEP. CPEC in Pakistan is a global security threat but most importantly for India . Obama and US administration’s desire to contain China and rising economic might of India created a much bigger image of India than its real might . With our exports stagnant at 300 billion dollars India is a midget in international trade. Its large GDP due to large population is worth less for global players who want to only increase their exports .No one has will or money to oppose China including USA . They only want to fight proxy wars .
India under PM Modi , mistakenly , started punching much above its weight just as in Nehru era . But dismayed by the declining Indian economy and its limited purchases , West started supporting Imran Khan as US first wants to get out of Afghanistan rather than confronting China and CPEC . The real surprise is Malaysia under Mahatir . Malyasia had always supported India including in 1965 war . Why and how it chose to hit India in UNGA and then on CAA is a mystery . Turkey’s desire to replace Saudi Arabia as the historic leader of Islamic world is understandable . But Erdogan too is punching much above his weight . It will be expelled from Nato if it opposes USA so visibly .
India possibly has been chosen as a soft target by the Islamic forces . They cannot retaliate against USA or Israel so instead want to show their prowess by hitting India below the belt on Kashmir and CAA while totally ignoring the Chinese muslim’s condition in Uyghur and Saudi bombing of Yemen or the mess in Syria, Libya , Iraq and ISIS . The danger is in international consolidation of anti India forces which will suit China. China may expose Indian weakness by instigating a big terrorist attack like Mumbai . It will be as devastating for our international image as the 1962 war with China .
But the real culprit is our mishandling and neglect of economy in last seven years . We must thank Rahul Bajaj for speaking truth however partially . Total reality is much worse . As a team leader PM himself is at fault by neglecting economy over politics and picking incompetent babus and his over centralized decision making apparatus . The fear is all pervasive .
World respects economic power . We must get it as first priority and use it to increase our military might .
