Election Results And The Middle Class : The Good , Bad And Ugly
Rajiv Upadhyay
The state election results have surprised Congress in its loss in MP and Rajasthan . Rajasthan was not that bad because Ashok Gehlot could not break the tradition of alternate party winning elections . But MP was a big surprise where almost a lost election was reversed by the ‘Ladli ‘ scheme of giving financial assistance for girl education direct into bank accounts . It led to women voters voting in droves for BJP . Rajasthan scheme of free medical treatment did not save Ashok Gehlot .
It proved that poor want just more direct money and every party will now provided more and more direct subsidies . Jaya Lalitha’s poor people idli stalls , free mid day meal in schools in Tamil Nadu had started this wave . Raman Singh victory in Chhattisgarh fifteen years back was also due to cheap rice scheme . But the cake goes to Kejriwal in Delhi who totally abandoned infrastructure development to give free electricity , water , bus ride to women etc . but he cannot be defeated in elections.
While Manmohan Singh spent lifetime lecturing on reducing the subsidy on diesel , fertiliser etc . but Pranab Mukherji turned his economic policies upside down by persuading Congress to start MNREGA type schemes which became the gold standard for subsequent central governments .
The good news of this election result is the stability it will provide and its valuable contribution to increase in FDI due to increased global confidence in India and PM Modi . It is also good because USA / Canada will limit their efforts to promote ‘ Indian Spring ‘ type balkanisation efforts through Khalistan movement , Soros etc for five years . EU will also limit its anti Indian agenda . Indian industrialists will be assured of five more years of continued economic policies as BJP will now win the 2024 elections. Unifying force of hindutva overcoming the divisive caste politics unleashed by Lalu and Nitish and anti Sanatan movement of DMK are also a big beneficial fallouts.
But these results are bad for Indian economy and middle class . Electoral irrelevance of real life issues like unemployment and real economic growth is the greatest casualty . The higher educated class of youth looking for higher salary jobs will have to go out in larger numbers as India is not creating enough jobs. The new GDP figures are like bikni, hiding the vital and revealing the trivial. The real economic growth in job generating sectors like MSME , Manufacturing is very low . The MBA , MBBS, B.E./B.Tech qualifications are not yielding salary that can cover the cost of acquiring a degree. BA, MA and even arts Ph.D are meaningless in today’s India . We are saved by software exports and inward remittances as our imports are much larger than exports. Still rupee has lost much in the last ten years vis a vis dollar . But here also our handling of global inflation caused by Ukraine war was masterly and saved us from disaster like Sri Lanka, Pakistan etc. .
However domestically the government is focussed on winning elections and upgrading infrastructure . It promotes big corporate business that give it money and poor kisan etc for vote bank . But like the infamously poorly drafted agriculture reform bill , the government may again become more reckless under corporate sector guidance. Prolong one party rule has made the ruling party lose its sheen of honesty in many state like MP as shown by Vyapam, the medical education scam .
Now women have become another vote bank with attendant disadvantage as they are not the real productive class and all loud unproven claims of ‘ Nari Shakti ‘ are just electoral rhetoric in India. Bangladesh has accepted low female wages silently and boosted its textile sector . We are doing the opposite for vote bank considerations and have lost the international textile market. Promotion of bogus ultra feminism will continue to destroy our most valuable asset i.e. our family system and old parents care by children. We can only save it now but will not be able to recreate it as it requires Dayanand Saraswati type social leaders which we cannot produce in this selfish , divisive , caste politics ridden polity.
Income tax paying salary class shall continue to get badly neglected as the twenty five years old tax slabs of Chidambaram era will not be really changed except for some deceptive window dressing. It is ironic that salary class pays 75000 rupees per annum tax compared to 25000 by the other much richer class . Yet the traders/corporate world guiding budget making will not permit diverting resources to give tax relief to middle class . The VAT and other taxes will continue to increase along with food ,education, housing and medical cost thus continuously reducing the purchasing power of middle class.
While the middle class will continue to become poorer but the delivery boy/ driver type jobs will hide and prevent the unemployment bomb from exploding as village /poor youth will at least become self reliant and not dependent on parents even with Rs. 5000 salary. The lack of real economic growth will be hidden in cacophony of deceptively increased foreign respect by using our increasing purchase power, internationally.
Similarly educated hindus like soft ‘ vasudhev kutumbakam’ , Gita/ Ramayan type ‘ Santoshi ( satisfied) ‘ co existential hindutva not the aggressive hindutva now emerging on TV shows . Unlike Kashmir and Ayodhya ,Uniform Civil Code is like solving a great non problem and is nothing great really .But every one hails Ayodhya , Kashi , Mathura and Kashmir freedom as well as restoration / renovation of hindu temples started by the BJP government as it was long overdue .
Government is helpless in economy . Single genius led style cannot deliver Man Mohan era’s economic growth as people at top are clueless on the steps required and phoney patriotic jingoism is not a substitute for real imaginative solutions . Mediocre Indians cannot produce a Dr Kissinger’s petrodollar type solution for India !
So while in all high level national political objectives, middle / salaried class may be also happy by successes but its inevitable slide to poor class cannot be prevented by these election results and may even be accelerated due to neglect of economy.
Must the nation grow over the corpse of salaried middle class which is the real backbone of economy , is for the government to rethink and decide !
I am sure there are better alternatives .
