नए सऊदी – अमरीकी शांति प्रस्ताव व इसराइल कि दुविधा : आगे कुआँ पीछे खाई : Why Netanyahu May Be Right On The Bogey Of Two State Solution
Rajiv Upadhyay
I often pity the most brilliant yet the most persecuted people of Israel .
After more than a century of struggle they hoped to get a country , for the history’s most persecuted Jewish people, when UN proposed a two state solution in 1947 . After millions of deaths in Hitler’s concentration camps , Israel was happy to get even a tiny state as a country for Jewish people. But their hopes were belied when Arab league rejected it un necessarily and the armies of six nation attacked the nascent state of Israel in 1948. It was a miracle that Israel won . But the peace was short lived and in 1967 combined and mighty armies of Egypt , Syria and Jordan again attacked Israel a nation with just 2.7 million population. God saved Israel again and it defeated its enemies and this time did not vacate the territories won . In 1973 it was again attacked by Egypt and Syria in Yom Kipur war and Israel was saved by the most brilliant military victory again led by Moshe Dayan.
Recently in October ’23 , Hamas launched a totally unprovoked attack with 3000 rockets on Israel from Gaza and abducted 250 people and killed 1139 people in a music festival. World was aghast by such brutality as displayed by Hamas .
The irony is that Gaza was captured by Israel in 1967 war from Egypt but vacated it in 2005 in the false hope of an elusive lasting peace after the Oslo accord in 1993 .
Israel vacated most of the hard won territories in Palestine Authority area . It was a very unpopular but brave move by the Israeli PM Rabin who was assassinated by his angered countryman . Yet his successor honoured the accord by vacating the rest of the cities hoping that Arafat will also honour the agreement.
Yasser Arafat , the leader of PLO was also badly criticised for agreeing for a compromise . But unlike Rabin he did not support the accord in public but called it a Hudibyan treaty of Prophet , agreed to just gain time for regrouping before launching a new attack. Fearing ouster or even death , Arafat did not show the courage of Anwar Sadat or Rabin .
Israel is now at the same cross road again .
New players are USA under president Biden instead of Bill Clinton , Hamas in place of PLO and Riyadh in place of Oslo . Israel is being offered the same promise of elusive peace by a likely re hash of UN’s Two State solution of 1947. World is tired of Israel’s war . For USA, now self sufficient in oil , Israel and middle east are not that valuable . Its priority is to stop China, Russia , BRICS and de dollarisation. It will like to possibly leave middle east after making Saudi Arabia the new Caliph of Islamic world and protector of US interests .
Israel will be the loser in both cases . If it refuses it will be labeled as a war monger . But Hamas holding captives , will not compromise and want East Jerusalem as their capital , entire west bank and Haifa port etc to make it a financially viable country. The Arab peace army will be removed in five years . In ten years, some new version of Hamas will launch a new attack on Israel. Both Israel and USA will be relatively much weaker by then . Europe has already forgotten Holocaust and is engulfed in its own problems after Covid and Ukraine war. OIC will support Ummah and Hamas .
The very existence of Israel will be in danger .
For ensuring its long term survival , Israel should not participate in Riyadh conference . It should damage Hamas as much as possible in the next one month and declare a unilateral cease fire for negotiation on hostage release . It has to be prepared for some deaths amongst hostages . Netanyahu may have to relinquish office after a month after a carefully drafted agreement with political rivals .
A Two State solution , imposed at gun point , yielding to a terrorist body like Hamas , is neither desirable nor workable in the long run . It will be a dangerous precedent for global peace also .
Riyadh conference should be held after US elections and release of all hostages.
