Predictable Biden or Unpredictable Trump : BRICS and India Should Be Prepared for Arm Twisting and Sanctions as AUKUS Supersedes QUAD and De- Dollarisation gains momentum
Rajiv Upadhyay
USA, since president Clinton days , had realised the ultimate rise of India and George Bush’s nuclear deal recognised and cemented the new Indo USA relation . China’s increasing economic might brought India and USA together under president Obama , Although PM Modi was able to strike a friendship with unpredictable and mercurial Trump but he was really no ones friend including Europe . He was totally committed to promote even the smallest of American interest and brought our relations to precipice over a small Harley Davidson motorcycle . He ended India’s preferred trading status in GSP and imposed heavy duties on 50 Indian products like textiles , agricultural products etc . But he also added Indo to Asia pacific command and Indo US security ties became quite strong .
President Biden was a totally predictable old school American president who believed in US right to exceptionalism to hilt . Possibly hurt by ‘ Ab ki baar Trump sarkar’ slogan , no American ambassador was posted in New Delhi for three years. US Visa waiting period increased to two years . Without any military alliance, he did not see QUAD as very useful and downgraded it. India’s support for Russia in Ukraine annoyed the entire Western World though they understood it . So Indo – US relations cooled in Biden’s regime but Indian order for 250 planes and many big financial deals made West realise the usefulness of India . In reality India is not a favourite of USA or West but is recognised as a useful friend against China.
Irrespective of Biden or Trump winning the next presidential elections , BRICS will be henceforth regarded as a new threat to US dominance . The Petro Dollar deal worked by Dr Kissinger did wonders to the otherwise declining US economy . BRICS, in spite of its contradictions , is the biggest challenger to US led world order . America ,with 32 trillion dollar debt including 200 billion dollars of India ,will vigorously defend its global dominance for ensuring its survival . Therefore India will be under strong pressure to abandon it , end the Rupee trade deals , sabotage BRICS currency and distance itself from Russia . North south corridor will be obstructed and meet the fate of CPEC and Russian pipelines to Europe.
Some day possibly as we are self sufficient in defence and become world’s third largest economy , have a 12000 kms range Surya missile and land man on moon with space war capabilities , efforts to de stablise India by a series of Arab Spring type agitations may gain momentum . Khalistani Pannu type people will be groomed in large number. Curbs on exports , denial of technology , banking restrictions etc will get imposed along with cyber and media wars . China and Pakistan would be encouraged to attack India . Efforts to reduce our remittances , FDI, denial of crucial raw materials etc will be the other non military arm twisting methods .
Russia had done detailed planning before launching Ukraine mission . We must plan right now for the eventual inevitable arm twisting and safe guard our independence . We must start by build up stocks of all crucial raw materials including APIs , rare earths , oil etc. from our foreign reserves . If possible we should take back our gold from UK and exchange dollar bonds with US goods or properties. Trade must be diversified to end dependence on any one country or block . Our fault lines of diversities and democracy cannot be allowed to be misused to launch Egypt or Syria type dissent . A mutually agreed political frame work must be placed in advance to counter such attempts along with promoting trust and dialogue amongst parties and communities, utilising this peace period.
Internationally , like Switzerland ,our neutrality in global conflict but backed by very strong defence is the best course but effort to befriend Pakistan and China must continue.
India should be ready to face an asymmetric war and very detailed planning and preparations should begin right now.
