Why ‘Bangla Spring’ Must Not Only Be Stalled But Also Reversed : South East Asia Can Not Be Recolonised Again !
Rajiv Upadhyay
The explosive events in Bangladesh in the last ten days are understandable and not surprising but their far reaching consequences for the region must be understood in depth before deciding future course of action .
In spite of Sheikh Hasina’s term of fifteen years resulting in increase in country’s per capita GDP , from $699 in 2009 to $2688 in 2022 ,exports increasing from 17 billion in 2009 to 59 billion in 2022 and average life expectancy increasing from 69 to 73 years during her rule and Bangladesh going past India and Pakistan in human development index , her arrogance and suppression of dissent and persecution of political opposition became the cause of huge anti incumbency wave . It was compounded by the recent decline in exports and foreign exchange reserves due to COVID and global economic slow down which had badly affected Sri Lanka and Pakistan earlier and destroyed their economy. Unforgiving public has notoriously short memory . Small fall in living standard and employment made people angry and they attributed it to sometimes very real but mostly imaginary mega political corruption and nepotism. In this atmosphere of anger all the good work done by the government in the last fifteen years was ignored by students and public at large.
30 % Reservation in government jobs for ex freedom fighters wards became the rallying point for students . Initially the government had ended reservations in job for grand children of freedom fighters in 2018. They were restored by courts . After the Supreme Court reversed the high court decision, the student agitation should have normally stopped but instead it expanded to overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina’s government by the Pakistan supported the outlawed Jamat e Islam and China’s favourite BNP whose leader and the ex Prime Minister Begum Khalida Zia was in Jail for a long time . But Their desperation is totally understandable as they were driven to wall. If these were normal political upheavals they could be ignored considering that the entire Islamic block has autocratic rulers only and Saddam , Gaddafi and Asad senior are missed today as they had ensured well being of population. But these upheavals were not normal and instead were part of a bigger geo political game of Western powers.
At present USA is against China and has India’s total support. But the present Indian government is too nationalistic for Western liking . In the long run even very strong India also does not suit its hegemonical objectives . It will like to have a Christian country in the region and will like to have military bases in Nepal as well as Bangladesh. With them it could control India from East , West and North. It could also neutralise our Andaman and Vishakhapatnam naval base. Ultimately West will prefer recolonisation of India as it cannot touch China and India is very vulnerable and easy to balkanise.
Sheikh Hasina’s charges cannot be dismissed as a figment of imagination. Great powers habitually prepare and think beyond day after tomorrow. India has to learn this game now. It can keep USA in good humour by liberal trade and may avoid harsh offensive open talks which otherwise won us a lot of respect and acclaim on Russian oil import vis a vis European lectures. We need thirty years of lying low for unobstructed peace and uninterrupted growth . We should not use foreign policy to get domestic political advantage and have absolute unity in the country vis a vis foreign policy.
Coming back to Bangladesh , it is essential to reverse this ‘ Bangla Spring ‘ or at least stall it as in Syria . South East Asia cannot become the ‘ Neo Colonial Playfield’. Sheikh Hasina may not be acceptable now but a secular , friendly and progressive Bangladesh is our essential requirement . Inexplicably a large section of Bangladesh population is anti India and shall remain so.
We cannot have another Pakistan in East as our neighbour !
