Bangladesh : Tariq Rahman Returns Like Benazir Bhutto : Likely Return Of Zia ur Rahman Era Of Cold Frenemity : No Gujral Doctrine Again !
Rajiv Upadhyay
Tariq Rahman , 60 year old son of late president Zia ur Rahman and now terminally ill Begum Khalida , returned to Bangladesh after seventeen years stay in UK . He was received by a crowd of of an estimated million people just like the pivotal return of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan in 1986. It has clearly demonstrated that the Yunus regime cannot survive beyond elections in January. Also BNP has refused any alliance with Islamic parties or student’s party . Awami league is banned so cannot contest the elections . Also unlike Imran Khan , Hasina is not very popular at present . So Tariq Rahman is likely to be the next prime minister of Bangla Desh .
DHAKA, BANGLADES
India is in difficult situation in Bangladesh . Yunus government, a US deep state creation , cashed on anti Sheikh Hasina sentiments to launch a virulent anti India campaign to the extent of calling India’s seven sister states of North East land locked and virtually inviting Chinese invasion after cutting off the Siliguri chicken neck. He also freed Paresh Barua , the most rabid anti India separatist long imprisoned by Sheikh Hasina .The relations are near zero already and cannot go down further .
Tariq Rahman will be like his father . Zia ur Rahman who promoted SAARC just to exploit India unitedly with Pakistan and other members. He was pro Pakistan and clandestinely supported separatists in North East . He was closer to Beijing . But he did not appear anti Indian on surface .
He was a classic Frenemy . Begum Khalida continued his policies heading the same party.
His son Tariq will continue the same policies . He would like to extract as many concessions from India as possible pretending to be a neighbour in distress . But it would be disaster for India to return to Gujral doctrine of unilateralism with neighbours. It will support Turkey , Pakistan, Qatar Islamic axis like Imran Khan . It would surreptitiously try to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan and pay for Indian imports with drug smuggling in north east in a typical ISI modus operandi .
Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India will be used as an albi for his anti India stance in public . We must not forget that Bangladeshis were the greatest votary of formation of Pakistan in 1947 and Noakhali massacre of hindus had full public support. Hindus have been systematically expelled from Bangladesh and it may resume under BNP government but in a hidden fashion . Sharing of Ganga and Teesta water will be another flash point . India should bargain hard and not give excess water following the Gujral doctrine.
India does not hold many control cards particularly as China and America both will befriend Bangladesh along with Turkey and Pakistan. Yunus has already got a very low tariff rate of 19 % from USA . With Chinese cotton its textile industry will be fully revived in two years . India must not immediately agree on sharing Ganga and Teesta water particularly as China is making a mega dam on Teesta in Bangladesh . India too must consider other options to protect its interests.
The security red line must be established . Lalmonirhat air base should not be given to China . At the very first attempt to disrupt Siliguri corridor we may have to take Rangpur.
Five years later, if Awami League can return, it may reverse India’s fortunes. Otherwise India should prepare for another long Frenemy regime.
May be our Jai Shankar can pull a rabbit out of his hat in Bangladesh too !
