पुनः मुष्कः भवः : २०५० मैं भारत की गुलामी व् विखंडन को रोकना – राजीव उपाध्याय
Preventing Balkanisation and Recolonisation of India in 2050 : Is Asymetric War The Real Challenge For Defence Planners .
आज जब देश मोदी के नेत्रित्व मैं पुनः अभूत पूर्व आर्थ…िक विकास व् विश्व शक्ति बनने के सपने देख रहा है तो ऐसे मैं देश की फिर से गुलामी व् विखंडन की बातें करना रंग मैं भंग डालने के समान प्रतीत होगा .परन्तु देश का चरित्र इतना बिगड़ चूका है की यदि हम अभी नहीं समझे और संभले तो यह अवश्यम्भावी होगा . क्लीव के नेत्रित्व मैं मात्र ८२० गोरे सैनिकों ने हमें गुलाम बना लिया . हमारे देसी राजाओं की विशाल सेनाएं हमें नहीं बचा सकी . यह उसने रिश्वत व् लालच दे कर देश द्रोहियों की जमात खड़ी कर पाया था . क्या लालच आज तब से कम है . क्या हमारा स्वतन्त्रता संग्राम वाला आदर्शवादी चरित्र अक्षुण्य है . क्या झूठी सेना के विद्रोह की खबर बनाने व् छपने वाले व् आतंकवाद से लड़नेवाले पंजाब के एसएसपी संधू , गुजरात के वंजारा व् कर्नल पुरोहित को जेल मैं रखने वाले व् आई बी के अफसरों पर इशरत जहाँ के केस पर मुकद्दमा चलने वाले देश को बचायेंगे . इस लेख को सावधानी से पढ़ चिंतन की आवश्यकता है नहीं तो हमारा पतन अवशम्भावी है . – राजीव उपाध्याय
Talking of Recolonisation and Balkanisation of India in 2050 may look sacrilegious and too far fetched under the Modi regime . The nation has just become optimistic after a long time .We are waiting to become world’s biggest economy by 2050. We are hoping to become a super power by 2050 . Why should we worry about our recolonisation ? Can someone colonise a super power ? But it is important to be alert and take early cognizance of the danger signals emerging now inspite of being a big economy . We were the biggest economy when the East India company decided to colonise us . Compared to its white army we were as big as a super power too . Yet we got colonised . Few would remember why East India Company decided to colonise India ? The 
British imports from India had to be paid in silver and gold and the traders and the nation was worried about the fast depleting reserves of these metals . So someone brave just decided to pay for imports by taxes collected from Indians . East India company did not have the military or financial resources to match Indian rulers . It is important is to know that only about 820 white soldiers fought in the battle of Plassey and Buxar which heralded the British rule in India that lasted 190 years . The rest of the soldiers who fought for British were Indians . The British forces in the battle of Buxar were just 7040 compared to the Indian forces of 40000 of Shah Alam , Nawab of Oudh and Shuja au daula . But the Indian Kings distrusted each other to the extent that fleeing Nawab Shuja au daula burnt the bridge leaving Mughal king Shah Alam at the mercy of British as a prisoner. Even in the battle of Plassey Indians forces outnumbered British forces by a ratio of 1:20. But British bribed Mir Jaffer , the commander in Chief of Indian Forces who defected during the battle . We are seeing similar signs of treachery again now. The unabated sinking of our naval ships and submarines , the large organised fake currecy racket and massive Bangladeshi immigration by collusion and their reported plans of creating ‘Mughlistan’, makes us think seriously whether we have at all become more concerned and impermiable ,more honest or united in last sixty years than what we were in 1757 the year of battle of Plassey or in Panipat ? Look at the systematic neglect of defence under Congress rule . Are we prepared to face Chinese or win over Pakistan in a direct war . Have we have learnt anything from our defeats in Panipat wars ? Why Pakistan thinks that it can get away with Parliament attack , Mumbai , Kargil etc .Can we prevent another ‘ Direct Action Day ‘ of 1947 or another Mumbai in Kolkata by Bangladeshi / Assamese immigrants in collusion with their Islamist supporters . One does not even have to reply as the obvious answer is No , we are not ready !
Those who think that we cannot be recolonised because unlike in past , we have now one powerful central government and a huge national army with nuclear bombs and missiles , must remember, how the west cleverly managed balkanisation of the great super power USSR without firing a shot . The entire Comecon got destroyed with the mighty Soviet government and army watching helplessly . Just one country Yugoslavia , united so long under General Tito , got divided into six small countries after his death . Just imagine what can happen to India ! Our weak democratic government and big army can be made a helpless spectator by the clever forces of recolonisers who can unleash civil or assymetric wars . In the recent years West has used religion to foment civil war in Nigeria and Sudan .Libya , Iraq have virtually been recolonised by fomenting internal dissent . Egypt and Syria is being slowly digested by West . Why has Shia Sunni problem become so divisive and uncontrollable only now in middle east ? West has cleverly used its propaganda machinary in creating these troubles .There could be new methods of assymetric wars like Trade or Banking disorders , cyber attacks or say Chinese components in our planes , satelites and power house being switched off at crucial times etc . We have to think if it can happen to us too ! As an example valid for us ,we should look at just how one General Hameed Gul of ISI was able to create maasive insurgency in Punjab with a shoe string budget . If the richest people of Punjab, who had suffered so much from Pakistanis in 1947 , could be tempted and mislead by one Hameeed Gul , imagine how easy it will be for west to exploit and bribe leaders and create a deep split along our big fault lines of caste , religion , region , language etc, with just a billion dollar budget . The task is made simpler by children of our top politicians and bureacrats being settled in west . They can be blackmailed or exploited so easily .Simlarly oil rich countries can pressurised us by persecuting our people there as done by ISIS to our nurses in Iraq. Our widely spread diaspora can become our source of weakness too under ruthless colonisers . We are today a very soft target for global players of terrorism and assymetric warfare with large supporting budgets . With time it will become worse as our present system has no cure for assymetric wars . Our centralised army can fight a conventional war but it is helpless against the modern assymetric wars of propaganda , bribery , promoting separatism amongst under privileged , rumour mongering , manipulating public opinion etc . Army neither has the authority nor training nor the resources to fight such wars . So many different competing organs of state are involved that coordination between them is not possible. Just as an example we have four intelligence agencies ie IB , RAW , Military Inteligence , ED for economic offences . Although NIA and NSA have been created but much more needs to be done . Another area of weakness has emerged in recent times is our great suceptibility to rumour mongering . The story of Ram Garh unit of sikh armymen killing Brigadier Puri on false news of destruction of Golden Temple or North East people leaving Banglore by Facebook threats , should open our eyes to the power of the new tools of assymetric war . Even without facebook etc., after president Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed’s death, rumours about Hema Malini being shot dead by Dharmendra’s sons spread across the country just by phones. The rumour about Ganesh drinking milk even went international. One rumour unleashing the rape of Damini type agitation in Delhi could trigger an army revolt if done imaginatively by our colonisers . Our news channels and media houses are owned by foreigners and are visibly anti Indian particularly in cultural matters. They promote their own political or economic agenda by paid news . Rabid anti Modi propaganda by the entire english print and TV media , audacious support for homosexuals during Obama’s visit , promoting drinking and Valentine day are a few example of how vulnerable we have become to public opinion manipulations by foreigners . Similarly our top civil bureaucracy and media colluded so irresponsibly in manufacturing and broadcasting the highly anti national and false news about army coup attempt just to keep Gen V.K.Singh in check . Our armed forces are being constantly demoralised and maligned in media in the name of human rights . We depend on IB and RAW to secure us against assymetric wars . But even they are vulnerable .Our cabinet proceedings were given to French embassy by their spy Coomar Narain for just Rs80/ page . Sonia government’s decision permitting prosecution of IB officers by CBI in a known terrorist, Isharat Jahan ,case have destroyed their faith in the government irrepairably . The great fighters against terrorism ie SSP of Punjab police ‘ Sandhu ‘ , IG of Gujrat ,Vanjara are in jail as is Col Purohit . The shady suspect of ISRO espionage case was rewarded and employed in IB . Can we get commitment in our saviour services after these episodes ? In the last few years we have destroyed the soul of our armed forces and inteligence agencies which alone could have saved us from assymetric wars . Even some judgements of our over entusiastic courts as in case of Salwa Judum in Chhatisgarh , have been very detrimental to our security needs as witnessed in Dantewada killings of CRPF personnel. So a demotivated army , IB , RAW cannot effectively protect us from the assymetric wars of future . Let us think of another scenerio . If some future Ghauri / Ghazni smuggles a nuclear bomb on a truck and trailor into Amritsar and demand a huge booty as ransome , can we handle its threatened march to Delhi ? We could not handle even the hijacked IAC plane at Amritsar which finally went to Kandhar . Will ‘ peaceniks ‘ not force us to give in to the demand for ransom in a repeat of Kandhar . This can also be done with many other easier methods like biological weapons , engineering a massive crop failures with GM seeds , Releasing dam water suddely to cause floods etc .Today there is no agency capable enough to protect us from these new threats . Earlier our size and poor communications used to protect us .Sir Thomas Roe had come to Surat in the year 1615 in Jahangir’s period. It took British 250 long years to colonise India largely by engineering divisions through corruption and bribery. Today our vulnerability to corruption and bribery has increased even more . Coal Scam , CWG ,2G and Telgi , Harshad Mehta share market scam earlier , had exposed how vulnerable and suceptible our system has become to corruption at top . Corruption makes our rulers highly amenable to blackmail by foreigners .The old times protection of poor communications is no longer available to us now .With trains , aero planes and automobiles, moving huge army at short notice is not very difficult . Similarly satelites ,internet , print media and television has made mass communication much easier . Recolonisation of India can now be done in just ten years by assymetric war methods . There is a solution available against recolonisation as shown by Palestine, Afghanistan and Vietnam . They have demonstrated that strong willed nations cannot be colonised . China cannot be colonised .But do we have such a will ? I doubt . We have not done anything to build a national character as done by Ho Chi Minh or Lee Kuan so successfully.
British imports from India had to be paid in silver and gold and the traders and the nation was worried about the fast depleting reserves of these metals . So someone brave just decided to pay for imports by taxes collected from Indians . East India company did not have the military or financial resources to match Indian rulers . It is important is to know that only about 820 white soldiers fought in the battle of Plassey and Buxar which heralded the British rule in India that lasted 190 years . The rest of the soldiers who fought for British were Indians . The British forces in the battle of Buxar were just 7040 compared to the Indian forces of 40000 of Shah Alam , Nawab of Oudh and Shuja au daula . But the Indian Kings distrusted each other to the extent that fleeing Nawab Shuja au daula burnt the bridge leaving Mughal king Shah Alam at the mercy of British as a prisoner. Even in the battle of Plassey Indians forces outnumbered British forces by a ratio of 1:20. But British bribed Mir Jaffer , the commander in Chief of Indian Forces who defected during the battle . We are seeing similar signs of treachery again now. The unabated sinking of our naval ships and submarines , the large organised fake currecy racket and massive Bangladeshi immigration by collusion and their reported plans of creating ‘Mughlistan’, makes us think seriously whether we have at all become more concerned and impermiable ,more honest or united in last sixty years than what we were in 1757 the year of battle of Plassey or in Panipat ? Look at the systematic neglect of defence under Congress rule . Are we prepared to face Chinese or win over Pakistan in a direct war . Have we have learnt anything from our defeats in Panipat wars ? Why Pakistan thinks that it can get away with Parliament attack , Mumbai , Kargil etc .Can we prevent another ‘ Direct Action Day ‘ of 1947 or another Mumbai in Kolkata by Bangladeshi / Assamese immigrants in collusion with their Islamist supporters . One does not even have to reply as the obvious answer is No , we are not ready !Those who think that we cannot be recolonised because unlike in past , we have now one powerful central government and a huge national army with nuclear bombs and missiles , must remember, how the west cleverly managed balkanisation of the great super power USSR without firing a shot . The entire Comecon got destroyed with the mighty Soviet government and army watching helplessly . Just one country Yugoslavia , united so long under General Tito , got divided into six small countries after his death . Just imagine what can happen to India ! Our weak democratic government and big army can be made a helpless spectator by the clever forces of recolonisers who can unleash civil or assymetric wars . In the recent years West has used religion to foment civil war in Nigeria and Sudan .Libya , Iraq have virtually been recolonised by fomenting internal dissent . Egypt and Syria is being slowly digested by West . Why has Shia Sunni problem become so divisive and uncontrollable only now in middle east ? West has cleverly used its propaganda machinary in creating these troubles .There could be new methods of assymetric wars like Trade or Banking disorders , cyber attacks or say Chinese components in our planes , satelites and power house being switched off at crucial times etc . We have to think if it can happen to us too ! As an example valid for us ,we should look at just how one General Hameed Gul of ISI was able to create maasive insurgency in Punjab with a shoe string budget . If the richest people of Punjab, who had suffered so much from Pakistanis in 1947 , could be tempted and mislead by one Hameeed Gul , imagine how easy it will be for west to exploit and bribe leaders and create a deep split along our big fault lines of caste , religion , region , language etc, with just a billion dollar budget . The task is made simpler by children of our top politicians and bureacrats being settled in west . They can be blackmailed or exploited so easily .Simlarly oil rich countries can pressurised us by persecuting our people there as done by ISIS to our nurses in Iraq. Our widely spread diaspora can become our source of weakness too under ruthless colonisers . We are today a very soft target for global players of terrorism and assymetric warfare with large supporting budgets . With time it will become worse as our present system has no cure for assymetric wars . Our centralised army can fight a conventional war but it is helpless against the modern assymetric wars of propaganda , bribery , promoting separatism amongst under privileged , rumour mongering , manipulating public opinion etc . Army neither has the authority nor training nor the resources to fight such wars . So many different competing organs of state are involved that coordination between them is not possible. Just as an example we have four intelligence agencies ie IB , RAW , Military Inteligence , ED for economic offences . Although NIA and NSA have been created but much more needs to be done . Another area of weakness has emerged in recent times is our great suceptibility to rumour mongering . The story of Ram Garh unit of sikh armymen killing Brigadier Puri on false news of destruction of Golden Temple or North East people leaving Banglore by Facebook threats , should open our eyes to the power of the new tools of assymetric war . Even without facebook etc., after president Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed’s death, rumours about Hema Malini being shot dead by Dharmendra’s sons spread across the country just by phones. The rumour about Ganesh drinking milk even went international. One rumour unleashing the rape of Damini type agitation in Delhi could trigger an army revolt if done imaginatively by our colonisers . Our news channels and media houses are owned by foreigners and are visibly anti Indian particularly in cultural matters. They promote their own political or economic agenda by paid news . Rabid anti Modi propaganda by the entire english print and TV media , audacious support for homosexuals during Obama’s visit , promoting drinking and Valentine day are a few example of how vulnerable we have become to public opinion manipulations by foreigners . Similarly our top civil bureaucracy and media colluded so irresponsibly in manufacturing and broadcasting the highly anti national and false news about army coup attempt just to keep Gen V.K.Singh in check . Our armed forces are being constantly demoralised and maligned in media in the name of human rights . We depend on IB and RAW to secure us against assymetric wars . But even they are vulnerable .Our cabinet proceedings were given to French embassy by their spy Coomar Narain for just Rs80/ page . Sonia government’s decision permitting prosecution of IB officers by CBI in a known terrorist, Isharat Jahan ,case have destroyed their faith in the government irrepairably . The great fighters against terrorism ie SSP of Punjab police ‘ Sandhu ‘ , IG of Gujrat ,Vanjara are in jail as is Col Purohit . The shady suspect of ISRO espionage case was rewarded and employed in IB . Can we get commitment in our saviour services after these episodes ? In the last few years we have destroyed the soul of our armed forces and inteligence agencies which alone could have saved us from assymetric wars . Even some judgements of our over entusiastic courts as in case of Salwa Judum in Chhatisgarh , have been very detrimental to our security needs as witnessed in Dantewada killings of CRPF personnel. So a demotivated army , IB , RAW cannot effectively protect us from the assymetric wars of future . Let us think of another scenerio . If some future Ghauri / Ghazni smuggles a nuclear bomb on a truck and trailor into Amritsar and demand a huge booty as ransome , can we handle its threatened march to Delhi ? We could not handle even the hijacked IAC plane at Amritsar which finally went to Kandhar . Will ‘ peaceniks ‘ not force us to give in to the demand for ransom in a repeat of Kandhar . This can also be done with many other easier methods like biological weapons , engineering a massive crop failures with GM seeds , Releasing dam water suddely to cause floods etc .Today there is no agency capable enough to protect us from these new threats . Earlier our size and poor communications used to protect us .Sir Thomas Roe had come to Surat in the year 1615 in Jahangir’s period. It took British 250 long years to colonise India largely by engineering divisions through corruption and bribery. Today our vulnerability to corruption and bribery has increased even more . Coal Scam , CWG ,2G and Telgi , Harshad Mehta share market scam earlier , had exposed how vulnerable and suceptible our system has become to corruption at top . Corruption makes our rulers highly amenable to blackmail by foreigners .The old times protection of poor communications is no longer available to us now .With trains , aero planes and automobiles, moving huge army at short notice is not very difficult . Similarly satelites ,internet , print media and television has made mass communication much easier . Recolonisation of India can now be done in just ten years by assymetric war methods . There is a solution available against recolonisation as shown by Palestine, Afghanistan and Vietnam . They have demonstrated that strong willed nations cannot be colonised . China cannot be colonised .But do we have such a will ? I doubt . We have not done anything to build a national character as done by Ho Chi Minh or Lee Kuan so successfully.
Another new feature increasing our vulnerability to balkanisation has been the weakening of centre to a dangerous level in the recent years. Arrest of two central ministers in Tamilnadu by AIADMK government and its order for release of Rajiv Gandhi killers and interference in foreign policy about Sri Lanka , has exposed the dangers of excessive fedralism . Kolkata permitting holding of agitation by Islamists parties of Bangladesh is another such example of misconduct by a state . Pakistani and American ambassadors in past have tried to interfere in our internal affairs blatantly. Although the constitutional provision of dismissing the State Governments under Article 356 was blatantly misused by Congress but it is vital for our survival as a nation . How can the daughter of a newly elected Chief Minister of Telengana question Hyderabad’s accesion just to gain some cheap popularity . Similarly terrorism , another tool of assymetric warfare today has become less risky than smuggling in India due to lapsing of TADA / POTA and over activism of courts and human rightists who have no responsibility for protection of people . We were protected against recolonisation so far because of our poverty . There was no gain in colonising a poor country .But the real urge for recolonisation will come after fifty years when we will be a very big economy and the west will need our developed market for its industrial survival just as in the days of industrial revolution . There is need for India to prepare far more seriously for assymetric wars including developing plans of keeping up the fight for independence even if we are colonised . We have to be even prepared to fight a sustained gurilla war for independence like Vietnam ,French Resistance or Shivaji in case of our recolonisation . There is a need to build national character like Shivaji and Maha Rana Pratap. The begining can be made by creating a single superior agency to handle all forms of sedition and making all central and state government agencies subordinate to it . Even media and Judiciary should be answerable .It should ideally be headed by an Army General and not civil servants loathed by public . It may have specialists from all disciplines and services . To prevent it from becoming another German SS or Gestapo a three tier independent review by a tribunal can be introduced . It can be headed by a retired judge who has long experience of handling terror cases . 
But time has come to recognise our weakness and take preventive action before it is too late .
