७.४ % आर्थिक प्रगति जो कहीं दीखती नहीं : वकीली बुद्धी से आंकड़ों के हेर फेर ने सरकार की विश्वसनीयता कम कर दी

राजीव उपाध्याय

वित्तमंत्रालय ने अचानक घोषना कर दी की वर्ष २०१४  – १५ मैं आर्थिक प्रगति की दर ७.४ % हो गयी . जिस खबर से सब को उछल जाना चाहिए था उस पर कोई प्रतिक्रया ही नहीं हुयी . पहली बार सरकार ने जनता मैं अपनी विश्वसनीयता खो दी .

पहले आर्थिक प्रगति दीखती थी . खेती की उपज ज्यादा होती थी . इस वर्ष खेती की विकास दर सबसे कम , मात्र ०.४ % है . इसिये कोई किसान इन आंकड़ों से खुश हो ऐसा नहीं है . दुसरे प्रगति से औद्योगिक उत्पादन बढ़ता था . लोहा , सीमेंट , खनिज ज्यादा होते थे सो भी नहीं हुआ . औद्योगिक उत्पादन की विकास दर इस साल के तीन महीनों मैं सबसे निचले स्तर २.२ % पर पहुँच गयी  . कंपनियों का लाभ बहुत कम हो गया . वहां भी मातम है . जब कंपनियों को फायदा ही नहीं होगा तो वह न तो बोनस देंगी न ही तनख्वाह बढ़ेगी . इसलिए औद्योगिक जगत मैं मजदूरों में भी मातम है .

नयी नौकरियां पूंजी निवेश से बढ़ती हैं . पूँजी निवेश कोई कर ही नहीं रहा क्योंकि जिस प्रगति की उम्मीद मैं उन्होंने निवेश किया था वह हुयी ही नहीं . २०१३ – १४ मैं तो भारतीय उद्योगपतियों ने विदेशी मुद्रा मैं आने वाली  सारी पूंजी विदेशों मैं लगा दी . भारत मैं नयी नौकरियां भी नहीं बड़ी . इसलिए नवयुवक वर्ग जो मंहगी डिग्री के बाद अच्छी तनख्वाह की नौकरियां ढूढता था वह भी दुखी है .

तो फिर सुखी कौन है ?

कोई नहीं . ऐसा नहीं है की देश प्रगति का इन्तिज़ार नहीं कर सकता था . परन्तु आंकड़ों की हेरा फेरी से झूटी प्रगति दिखा कर वित्त मंत्रालय ने फिर वकीली बुद्धि से देश को दुखी   किया है क्योंकि किसान , मजदूर , उद्योगपति सभी के जले पर नामक छिडका है .

हम बार बार सरकार को आगाह कर रहे हैं की ‘ स्वर्णिम भारत ‘ को जो मुन्ह्की खानी पडी थी वही हाल दुबारा न हो जाय . मनरेगा मैं  हर साल घास कट कर गाँव की सड़क बना देना प्रगति नहीं है .इससे किसी को बेवकूफ नहीं बना सकते .

जब बिहार मैं पहली बीजेपी / नितीश सरकार ने पांच साल पूरे किये तो उन्हें बोलना नहीं पडा था . उन्नती बोल रही थी . आज सरकार सिर्फ बोल रही है उन्नती कहीं दीख नहीं रही है . यह अविश्वास सरकार के लिए घातक  होगा .

यह वकीली बुद्धि का दुरूपयोग से उपजा अविश्वास  सरकार को ले डूबेगा .

 

आंकड़ों की हेराफेरी का तरीका जानने के लिए  का लेख पढ़ें Wall Street journal का लेख पढ़ें

 

 India Changes GDP Calculation Method

Statistics Ministry Changing Base Year for Benchmark, Switches to Market-Price Calculation

A worker cuts a steel rod inside a steel factory on the outskirts of Jammu, India, in January. India’s statistics ministry changed the way it calculates gross domestic product, a measure of economic expansion, Friday. Photo: Mukesh Gupta/Reuters

By

Raymond Zhong and

Anant Vijay Kala

Anant Vijay Kala

NEW DELHI—India surprised economists Friday evening by ratcheting up its official economic-expansion figure for the previous fiscal year, marking it as a year of sharp recovery rather than continuing stagnation, and putting India’s growth rate much closer to China’s.

The dramatic revision could shake up the way the current trajectory of India’s economy is perceived both at home and abroad.

The Indian statistics ministry said that after updating the base year used for marking trends in the economy and switching to a market-price calculation of gross domestic product, the economy grew by 6.9% in the year that ended last March. Using the previous methodology, GDP expansion that year was 4.7%. China’s economy grew by 7.4% in the 2014 calendar year.

Since January 2010, the base year for India’s statisticians had been the 12 months that ended in March 2005. From now on, it will be the year that ended March 2012. The revised calculation also incorporates more-comprehensive data on corporate activity and newer surveys of spending by households and informal businesses.

The government also said Friday that its benchmark measure of economic growth will henceforth be based on market prices, not on factor costs. The latter method, which India had previously preferred, tabulates economic activity based on the costs of production, whereas the other method is based on the amounts paid by consumers. Most countries and international bodies calculate GDP based on market prices.

‘It kind of changes everything, at least at face value.’

—Shilan Shah, an economist at the London-based think tank Capital Economics

Indian voters last May picked a new prime minister, Narendra Modi, partly out of frustration with the economy. The revised figures could give the now-opposition Congress party fresh ammunition to show that the country wasn’t doing as badly during its time in office as originally thought.

“It kind of changes everything, at least at face value,” said Shilan Shah, an economist at the London-based think tank Capital Economics. But he added that the new figures were difficult to reconcile with other indicators showing an Indian economy operating well below capacity.

Mr. Modi’s government has been struggling to build on recent signs of recovery after what had looked like a four-year stretch of weak growth. It has been trying to improve the business environment, encourage foreign investment and boost the manufacturing sector.

The revised data paint a different picture of the economy’s recent path. Previously, the official growth rate in the year that ended March 2013 was 4.5%, a decade low. Using the new methodology, growth that year was 5.1% and accelerated markedly in the following year, which ended before Mr. Modi came to power.

 

The updated calculation also suggests that manufacturing in the year ended March 2014 was a larger share of India’s economic activity than previously thought—18% instead of 15%—while real estate, hotels and financial and business services constituted a smaller share—51% instead of 60%. Agriculture’s contribution grew to 17% from 14% with the revision.

Unlike other fast-developing Asian economies such as China’s and South Korea’s, India’s economy has for decades been fueled more by high-skill service industries than by factories. That, economists say, is one main reason India has failed to lift as many of the country’s agrarian poor despite rapid output growth.

It is still uncertain what all the changes will mean for more-recent growth. The government didn’t, on Friday, release updated GDP figures for the quarters ending in June and September 2014. Using the old methodology, growth in the second quarter was 5.7% and third-quarter growth was 5.3%. The government said these numbers will be revised next month with the release of fourth-quarter figures.

If the updated data show continued expansion of upwards of 6.9%, the reverberations could be global.

The World Bank this month released projections that show the country overtaking China as the world’s fastest-growing large economy in 2017. A slowing China would grow at 6.9% that year, while its southern neighbor would grow at 7.0%, the international lender said. The bank didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment Friday evening on India’s data revision.

Stronger-than-expected growth in India last year might also raise questions about whether the country’s central bank was right to have lowered interest rates in January.

The Reserve Bank of India eased lending conditions “partly on the basis that growth’s been pretty weak by historic standards and below what you’d call India’s potential rate of growth,” Mr. Shah at Capital Economics said.

The RBI is scheduled to announce its latest review of monetary policy on Tuesday. The central bank didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment about whether the revised data will influence its rate decision.

The statistics ministry on Friday said the GDP revision doesn’t significantly affect the ratios of India’s public spending and debt to the economy. The federal budget for the year beginning April 1 is scheduled to be released on Feb. 28.

Write to Anant Vijay Kala at anant.kala@wsj.com