कभी अमीर देश ग्रीस की कंगाली : भारत के लिए उपलब्ध सस्ते ऋण से वही संभावित ख़तरा व् शिक्षा

प्रेस्स को मोदी सरकार व् अन्य राज्य सरकारों के  कांग्रेस के पदचिन्हों पर चलने पर देश को तुरंत प्रभावी ढंग से सचेत कर देना चाहिए . जनता को पता होना चाहिए की ग्रीस की तरह ‘ जब बोये पेड़ बबूल के तो आम कहाँ से खाय ‘ भारत को नेताओं के लालच मैं भारत को ग्रीस नहीं बनाने दिया जा सकता . Greece was occupied by Germany and Axis forces in 1941 and was divided between Germany , Italy and Bulgaria during the WW-2. It suffered hugely due to food crisis and exploitation in this period and its population declined by 7 % . In 1943 it suffered hyper inflation and prices became 34000 times higher than 1940 . By 1944 prices became 163910000000times higher than 1940 . But it recovered by 1950 its per capita income was $ 1951 comparable to Japan’s $ 1873 .From 1950 to 1973 it was the wonder economy of the world with an average growth rate of 7 % , second only to Japan . It became 20 th highest per capita income country from 28 th in this period . So Greece had its golden days not that far away . Disastrous 1980s : Guilty Socialism / Communism 1980s were a disaster for Greece . Every indices of economy went crazy . legalization of left  party and their winning almost 50 % vote in 1990 set in wave of entitlement politics and investment declined sharply , GDP growth rate came down to 0.23 % , standard of living went down from 7 to 24 %  below European standard ,public debt mounted from 23 % in 1980 to 64.4% of GDP in 1989, Net capital formation came down from 16% to  0.24%. Factor productivity also took a nose dive .  More than anything the work culture changed dangerously to unproductive state like in West Bengal in communist rule . EU and Euro Era : Morphine and कौआ चला हंस की चाल टेढो टेढो जाय What will happen if you mule in a chariot drawn by race horses by disguising it and hiding its slow speed by temporaray injection of adrenalin ? For a moment mule will feel elated for being equated to race horses  . The death of mule is only a matter of time . So was the case of Greece , the socialist mule amongst race horses of Germany , France and Britain . Greece joined Euro group in early days of Eurozone in 2001 through deceit . As per Stablisation and Growth rules its budget deficit was to be  under 3 % of GDP and debt under 60 % GDP . BOOKS WERE FUDGED WITH THE CONNIVANCE OF AUDITORS. ( Germany too had higher debt  ) In 2009 Papandreu , greek PM , finally announced that the budget deficit was 12.7% . Tax evasion was the second big problem . In an study it was estimated that Greeks were disclosing only half of their income . Tax was 30% of GDP in Greece compared to 40 – 45 % for good countries . Tax evasion if corrected could have reduced the budget deficit to half in 2008 . In the beginning Greece economy accelerated upon joining Eurozone as the high interest rates in Greece made easy credit possible . This was suicidal as government kept borrowing and spending irresponsibly with abandon like run on credit card .  Athens Olympics being one such expenditure .Economy zoomed . Wages kept going up without increase in productivity .Government kept hiding market borrowings from budget deficits . Government expenditure rose by 86% against 32% increase in tax revenue . As truth got known creditors started demanding higher interest rates . Government borrowed even more to pay old loans till 2008 great financial crisis hit the entire Europe . Big and better  economies with higher productivity like Germany survived . Weak economies collapsed including Greece . The ‘ Socialist Mule ‘ could no longer run with race horses and collapsed . The first bail out of 110 billion euros  was given in 2010 , it did not work . Second bail out of $ 157 billion  was given in 2011 which too did not work . Greece at best could match its current account deficit  but  $ 410 billion debt is too much . One of the reason was that the austerity based relief package did not suit Greece . As an example it could have devalued its local currency to balance its lower productivity . But under Euro zone regulations it could not print its devalued currency . America opted for  ‘ Stimulus ‘rather than austerity to come out of recession  . But it was also because of Dollar being the global currency a privilege not available to Greece or Euro .Greece was certainly guilty of profligacy and of mishandling easy loans earlier but the relief package was unsuitable for its needs . Under Eurozone it had no options . Now having defaulted on IMF loans , it does not have many options either. Why should German tax payer pay for profligate Greeks ? Only to save European Union , emotionally dear to hard nosed Germans , just the way we pay for  Kashmiris . Germany wants to get over the guilt of two world wars other wise it could have dumped Greece long back . Possibly EU will permit Greeks to have their own currency as a compromise . Time alone will tell . What are the lessons in this Greek Tragedy for India . Plenty ! As the CWG , 2 G , Coal Blocks scams broke out , UPA – 2 opted for a strategy of throwing prudence and money  to winds to buy votes . The subsidies which were just about 45000 cr in NDA era became more than 2 lac crores . MNREGA , Food Security, Loan Waival , so many more , Like the Greeks , it borrowed from market to pay for these subsidies . The increase in public debt , foreign debt , central government borrowing can be seen in the graphs attached .   . It made setting of new  industries impossible by exhorbitant land prices . It also fudged the figures of  budget deficit  by taking advance credits  . NDA under Modi / Jaitley has so far proved to be a  weaker government than expected . When the crisis in Greece was exposed ,Greek PM Papendreu wanted  to usher reforms but bowed to labour pressure under a new concept of ‘People get preference over Institutions’ . This eventually destroyed Greece . The new Indian government too bowed to the electoral demands  by not discontinuing the notorious waster scheme MNREGA .Although it did control inflation and budget deficit . But like the Greeks , it fudged the growth figures which even the RBI Governor does not believe . Whom is the government fooling by counting Tax with growth statistics which was not counted earlier . My fear is that like any government it should not get too much money to spend by foreign loans  . All democratic governments will waste money on popular unproductive schemes . Like the Greeks , seventh pay commission and One rank one pension schemes will eventually by demonstration effect increase our  labour costs thus decreasing our competitiveness . The international  call centre market shifted away from India to Egypt / Philipines etc due to our high labour costs . If we want to give employment by becoming a big manufacturing hub , we will have to permit hire and fire as well as mass contract labour and dilute the Industrial Dispute Act . Greece has proved that by  leaders giving preference to populism over prudence finally  only invite a bigger catastrophe . Germany by keeping its wages low and steadily improving its productivity , finally survived the 2008 crisis and came out stronger . I so far see no signs of Gerrnan or Thatcherian resolve of changing the political course and so are just muddling through and show growth by fudging fingures  . Greece joined Euro group in early days of Eurozone in 2001 through deceit . As per Stablisation and Growth rules its budget deficit was to be  under 3 % of GDP and debt under 60 % GDP . BOOKS WERE FUDGED WITH THE CONNIVANCE OF AUDITORS. ( Germany too had higher debt  ) In 2009 Papandreu , greek PM , finally announced that the budget deficit was 12.7% . Tax evasion was the second big problem . In an study it was estimated that Greeks were disclosing only half of their income . Tax was 30% of GDP in Greece compared to 40 – 45 % for good countries . Tax evasion if corrected could have reduced the budget deficit to half in 2008 . In the beginning Greece economy accelerated upon joining Eurozone as the high interest rates in Greece made easy credit possible . This was suicidal as government kept borrowing and spending irresponsibly with abandon like run on credit card .  Athens Olympics being one such expenditure .Economy zoomed . Wages kept going up without increase in productivity .Government kept hiding market borrowings from budget deficits . Government expenditure rose by 86% against 32% increase in tax revenue . As truth got known creditors started demanding higher interest rates . Government borrowed even more to pay old loans till 2008 great financial crisis hit the entire Europe . Big and better  economies with higher productivity like Germany survived . Weak economies collapsed including Greece . The ‘ Socialist Mule ‘ could no longer run with race horses and collapsed . The first bail out of 110 billion euros  was given in 2010 , it did not work . Second bail out of $ 157 billion  was given in 2011 which too did not work . Greece at best could match its current account deficit  but  $ 410 billion debt is too much . One of the reason was that the austerity based relief package did not suit Greece . As an example it could have devalued its local currency to balance its lower productivity . But under Euro zone regulations it could not print its devalued currency . America opted for  ‘ Stimulus ‘rather than austerity to come out of recession  . But it was also because of Dollar being the global currency a privilege not available to Greece or Euro .Greece was certainly guilty of profligacy and of mishandling easy loans earlier but the relief package was unsuitable for its needs . Under Eurozone it had no options . Now having defaulted on IMF loans , it does not have many options either. Why should German tax payer pay for profligate Greeks ? Only to save European Union , emotionally dear to hard nosed Germans , just the way we pay for  Kashmiris . Germany wants to get over the guilt of two world wars other wise it could have dumped Greece long back . Possibly EU will permit Greeks to have their own currency as a compromise . Time alone will tell .