Dear Friends,
Subject: Security Vulnerability Of India—An Overview
It has been Pathankot today, it was Gurudaspur yesterday. That motivates us to undertake a security vulnerability study of India.
Let us get into it straightaway. Because of this being a vast subject, we shall try the bullet format as far practicable.
EXTERNAL FACTORS
1. a) Pakistan is like a red flag to a bull as far as India is concerned. It has been a continuous low pitch war (no longer proxy war) with India for ages. Apart from frictions on LoC, killing and threatening the villagers along the international border, it continues to be instrumental in firing up the Kashmiri militants. Pak-based United Jihad Council has claimed responsibility for the Pathankot case. Latest being heard is it was on ISI operations.
1. b) Pak ISI, known for their slogan of inflicting ‘thousand cuts” on India, has been causing continuous subversion of Indians and building up “sleeper cells”, specially in identified security sensitive areas, has of late been in public glare with the unearthing of several cases of espionage, involving Indian army personnel.
1. c) The members the banned organisations like SIMI and IM, supported by the Pak-ISI, have inbuilt threat potential and as such pose grave security vulnerability.
1. d) Well, we cannot do much about this source of security vulnerability and will have to live with it.
2. a) The easterly “Big Brother” China has been following the classical principle of friends’ enemies are my enemies also as far as Pakistan is concerned. The details are much to well-known.
2. b) China has never been happy with the Indian Ocean being known as ndia’s backyard. It continues to try to find access the Indian Ocean.
2. c) China has been trying to encircle India totally. With the last Sri Lankan President, it had developed a naval base there. Its efforts are afoot to get back to the same status.
2. d) China has succeeded in securing bases in Lakshadweep and Maldives as well.
2. e) China has been cultivating Nepal since long. Indian diplomatic failure to prevent any detente between China and Nepal continues to be bad chapter in India’s diplomatic history. It is a pity that a totally land-locked country, that cannot subsist without treating India as its real “Big Brother”, does not “behave”, to put the situation bluntly. Resultantly, China is taking full advantage of recent continuing brash between Nepal and India over the Madhesia issue.
2. f) China has managed to develop a toehold at the Chittagong Port of Bangladesh.
2. g) China has been historically maintaining a good relationship with various rebel groups operating in the “no man’s” land in Burmese territory alongside India in the east.
3. a) ISIS had wanted their march for being a world power from the India soil. This was from a document in Urdu discovered in a village in Pakistan.
3. b) ISIS impact on India has often been coming to the fore with individual cases being reported, especially from Southern States.
3. c) it would be worth recalling that immediately after the formation/declaration of the Islamic Caliphate in June 2014, an eminent Muslim cleric from UP had written to the Saudi King, offering to send huge number of Sunni volunteers from India.
3. d) a report on the recent attack on the Pathankot air base says that the terrorists had after resorting to the usual slogan of Alla hu Akbar, had shouted, “Islamic State Jindabad and Pakistan Jindabad—–and in that order.
3. e) responding to 13/11 killing in Paris, France has declared a “world war” against the ISIS. Russia has joined the war. It will be prudent to look at the possibility of the ISIS turning its attention to India in due course.
3. f) ISIS’s presence in the Kashmir Valley is not ruled out. Some sections of the Kashmiri Muslim youth have been sold to them.
3. g) ISIS have by now pushed out the Jammat and established themselves well in Bangladesh.
4. a) Soon after the declaration of the Islamic Caliphate by the ISIS, AL Qaeda had declared a Caliphate of its own in West Bengal. Al Qaeda had earlier declared India to be within its arc of its influence.
5. a) Similarly, Taliban’s close interaction with Kashmiri militants is a well established fact.
INTERNAL
1. The biggest internal security challenge to India is the “Demographic Bomb”. It is not the bugeoning Muslim population only. It is the misuse of Fundamental Right of freedom speech indulged in by some eminent Muslim leaders from different parts of India. The Owaisi brothers from Hyderabad, top the list.
2. a) The wide-ranging minority appeasement policy of all political parties poses another potential internal security vulnerability to the country. Contrary to expectations, the level and degree of such appeasement has gone up during the current NDA regime. Such degree of appeasement can give rise to worry to nation of their potential. Specially when the population is between 18 crore & 20 crore, this becomes an important point of security vulnerability.
2. b) Nobody seems to be interested in evaluating the suppressed feeling of the members of the majority community. Pushed to a situation like back to the wall, this can lead to serious breach of law and order anywhere in the country.
3. a) The security vulnerability of the continuing illegal Muslim immigration from Bangladesh almost goes by default.
3. b) The mischief potential from this phenomenon, such as, helping the growth of sleeper cells, mentioned earlier, indulgence in espionage, is immense.
4. a) We come to the “Maoist Threat” now in order of priority. This is no longer an ideology driven movement. It now thrives on exploitation of the tribals by the vicious combo of the corporate world, the politicians and the police. The poor tribals now fail to gather their daily necessities from the jungle and thus are forced to join the rebel Maoists.
4. b) If only the govt in the Centre and the States join hands and give the police necessary “political clearance” to go ahead and provide some air-support, if and when required, the Maoist problem will soon be a thing of the past.
5. a) Corruption is a serious security vulnerability to the country. Its implications for national security vulnerability is often not understood.
5. b) Also not understood by many, is the need for adequate Police Reforms. That is the surest way of curbing corruption. After all, the policemen happen to be the first face of the govt. But, as it happens, nobody wants the police to change.
6. Conditions of poverty, mostly in rural areas, are very significant indicators for security vulnerabilities in any situation.
ASSOCIATED DISABILITIES
1. There are experts who have studied the official statistics, such as the basic number of manpower required, specially in the field in internal security. It is not difficult to work that out. Standards have been laid down. We lack the numbers in both the uniformed police and in intelligence outfits. We would not comment on our armed strength. The situation calls for urgent remedial measures in all these areas.
2. As a matter of fact, intelligence is a different ball-game. It is a game of challenge and counter-challenge. INTTELIGENCE will have to permeate all walks of our official activity. The difference between victory or loss in a war of attrition lies in Intelligence and intelligence only.
3. We do not have any effective system of reviewing security measures at vulnerable places where systemic failures ought to be clearly accountable. And, instances of failure galore. Well, Intelligence will have to be dovetailed into it.
Ground conditions being what these are (latest in the press saying that Gurudaspur has been the handiwork of the Pak-ISI), the need for undertaking this vulnerability study of India would appear to have been done just in time, that is, not a day earlier.
Vandemataram,
Your sevak,
D.C. Nath
