Post Corona World Order : Will A Stung China Attack Soft Under Bellied India ?
Rajiv Upadhyay 
Dr Henry Kissinger in his recent article has started the post corona world order debate again . His contention is that now China is too big to be attacked even by America . He wanted a morally just America to lead in reconstruction of world economy by a America led Marshal Plan .
On the other hand, economically hurt Europe as well as America are keen to seek war damages from China . Economically and militarily strong China will not only not pay any compensation but as offensive defence , also show its belligerence in South China Sea and on Taiwan . Although in a long war ultimately America and European allies will win but it will be so costly and devastating that both USA and Europe will shy away from it . They will look for economic sanctions to work. China knows American weakness of a non competitive debt ridden economy . With a three trillion dollar loan America is seeking to reconstruct its post corona economy , it will not have any will to force a military solution .
China after US election will possibly agree to buy US bonds for say a trillion dollar in a phased manner and offer a suitably modified trade deal . America will thus be satisfied but it will weaken the Nato and increase Europe’s chasm with a selfish USA . Unlike courage and business acumen , Global leadership with generosity and big world vision are not Trump’s strengths . A small incident of diversion of German supply of masks and medicines from high sea is indicative of Trump’s extreme ‘America first ‘ thinking which annoys Europe . An economically weakened and divided Europe is in no position to impose even economic sanctions on China . Although EU imports from China are 362 billion euros ( 19 % of EU imports 2019) compared to exports of only of 198 billion euros ( 9 %) but EU is in no position to retaliate with out US support . China will apologise to Italy and buy it with say a fifty billion euro loan package . A similar grant to Spain will isolate Germany and France in EU . Other EU nations do not matter . UK will be bargaining for a favorable Brexit package and will not be at its best relationship with EU . Therefore, with out American leadership and financial assistance, Europe will be in no position to take on China in a post corona world .Germany and Japan will have to militarise and come out of World War -2 shadow and Europe and Japan will have to have far stronger navy and air force , if they want to matter in a post corona world order.
Japan , ASEAN , Russia , India , Australia are in no position to pressurize China alone . They will have to unite to defend themselves as China can launch more biological attacks like COVID.
President Trump, till elections, will adopt a bellicose attitude with China . USA may have a big naval exercise in South China sea with Australia , Japan , Taiwan ,UK, France , South Korea and Indian ships . But China will ignore it and let it happen . But as US elections approach it will hit badly one out of these countries to show its might and scare the OIC , ASEAN and Europe .
Taiwan , South Korea and Japan are US Protectorate , Europe is protected by Nato . So India will be the only soft target . With CORONA , Indian economy will be very weak . With his own economic troubles ,Trump will not offer any economic package to us.We have neglected our defence for too long . PM Modi’s some hundred foreign trips have created a Nehruvian larger than real, image of India . We are neither militarily nor economically any match to China but punching much above our weight. Joining big western military exercises in south china sea without an informal understanding or defence agreement or could be like the forward policy of Nehru. As in 1962, China will not go for a big war but just inflict a loud and visible military defeat , just enough to scare Australia , ASEAN , Taiwan and Hong Kong into total submission .
For a desperate China, if pushed too much , the easiest and most rewarding exercise will be to snatch Tawang in Arunanchal , Doklam and destroy our Andaman naval base with long range fully missiles. Pakistan may give China access to Gwadar naval base and Lahore border if China can win Siachin for it . From Gwadar base and its fleet of seventy submarines , China will be able to cut our oil supplies . Our low oil stocks are our Achilles heel and will be exploited fully. Normally China with its full might and surprise attack will be able to win these areas in three to four weeks .
Busy with elections, USA will not be able to assist , UN and European Union will only pass resolutions condemning it and asking peace to be restored . OIC will remember its Kashmir resolution . Africa does not matter in this war . Russia with its hands full with Barent Sea and weak economy , will not meddle . France and Israel will give us arms and Japan may give money but it will be inadequate . Britain will maintain studied silence .China will declare unilateral ceasefire with in a week of US elections .
Only a detrmined and united world with a just USA in lead can succeed in getting China pay for its mistake . But a businessman Trump will demand a stiff price . The only pragmatic but illegal option is to thank China with gift of COVID 2021 by USA and Europe !. Another practical low cost legal option is to destroy the artificial island created by China in South China Sea by dropping say a hundred ‘mother of all bombs ‘from B2 Bombers and recognize Taiwan .This can be exercised if the Chinese guilt is proven in spread of COVID globally .
Badly insulted India will lose gold rich Tawang , Andaman naval base and Doklam and will never hope to be a global power again . Even if exaggerated , it is a possible outcome and India needs to be prepared for it . World powers need to discuss it threadbare keeping US elections in mind .
The rediff article below reveals how we have neglected our defence for so many years and the trend has not reversed in Modi era although it is far more decisive than Antony government . Corona may allegedly lead to a cut of forty percent in defence budget . A nation which has spent thousand years in slavery ought to know better our but democracy with competitive populism is weakening our defence . We need to learn from Russia and China and how even minor countries like Malaysia and Turkey berate us enough to attack us in UN . Our soft belly will be exploited by our enemies .
REVEALED: How much India really spends on defence
By Ajai Shukla
‘India is ahead only of Pakistan in the amount spent on each soldier a year.’
‘The Indian military is a manpower-heavy throng that is poorly armed, equipped, and trained,’ observes Ajai Shukla.
A well-respected Swedish think tank, which announced that India was now the world’s third-biggest military spender, appears to have overestimated India’s defence spend.
In making this determination, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has put India’s defence spend for 2019 at $71.1 billion, behind top spender US ($732 billion) and China ($261 billion), but ahead of Russia ($65.1 billion) and Saudi Arabia ($61.9 billion).
However, the most recent Indian budgetary figures (revised estimates) put India’s defence expenditure for 2019-2020 at Rs 4.5 trillion, or about $59.7 billion.
This actually puts India at fifth, behind both Russia and Saudi Arabia.
It is unclear as to how SIPRI arrived at the $71.1 billion figure. The lower Indian budgetary figures include all aspects of defence spending, including salaries and defence pensions and civilian establishment of the ministry of defence (MoD), the Coast Guard, and Border Roads Organisation.
SIPRI is also incorrect in stating that India spends 2.7 per cent of its gross domestic product on defence. The most recent figure for 2019-2020 was 2.18 per cent of GDP.
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However, an analysis comparing Indian defence spending (2020-2021 Budget figures) with five other countries — the US, China, Russia, the UK and Pakistan — shows interesting results.
India allocates, by far, the highest percentage of its defence budget on personnel costs, with a hefty 59 per cent going to salaries and pensions.
Even the US and the UK, which pay their soldiers relatively lavishly, spend only 38 per cent and 30.6 per cent, respectively, on personnel costs.
Unsurprisingly, the heavy outgo on personnel costs results in India having the lowest percentage spend on equipment modernisation, that is, expenditure.
While China and the UK spend 41 and 42 per cent of their defence budgets on modernisation, and even Pakistan spends a healthy 37 per cent, India can spare no more than 25 per cent of its defence budget on capital expenditure.
Countries like the UK plan equipment modernisation for a 10-year window, identifying exactly what weapon platforms they need to replace and allocating the funding for procuring replacements.
In contrast, India’s 15-year Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP) is an endless wish list that the Budget cannot support since there are no priorities identified, nor alignment of requirements with future budgetary means.
India is ahead only of Pakistan in the amount spent on each soldier a year — including salary, equipment and training costs.
While the US spends over half a million dollars per soldier and the UK spends $367,000, India spends a mere $43,000 per individual.
Consequently, the Indian military is a manpower-heavy throng that is poorly armed, equipped, and trained.
While China shows up well behind the US on almost every count, many defence analysts argue that China’s expenditure figures are misleading.
These figures use conventional currency conversion, without adjusting for purchasing power parity (PPP), even though China builds most of its equipment indigenously rather than buying them at dollar prices from the international market.
Calculating from a PPP perspective, scholars such as Peter Robertson, professor at the University of Western Australia, put China’s real military spending, as an equivalent of US spending, at $455 billion — not far behind the actual US spending of $732 billion.
