Preparing For A Surprise Chinese Attack : A Blue Print for The Indo Pacific Countries : Should ASEAN and AUKUS countries Raise $ 200 Billion Contingency Fund
Rajiv Upadhyay 
China’s release of a map showing territories of countries in ASEAN , India , Russia etc. as a part of China is a clear indication that like with Hitler , Chamberlain type dithering or appeasement will not make China’s Xi Jinping see reason as he understands and values only a language of ‘Force ‘ and real politic . He is looking for eternal glory by winning Taiwan which could not be done even by the great Mao.
China has been emboldened by its success in BRICS and SCO . Generally unipolarism has been so misused that almost all countries want a multi polar world. The failure of ill conceived western sanctions on Russia has further emboldened him as really it can tighten west more by denying rare earth and critical raw materials and denying western consumer goods entry in China . West as well as USA are equally dependent on China . In a decade this dependence will reduce substantially . So China knows it and will act decisively now .
It is sure that it will follow its favourite salami slicing methodology. It is difficult to guess whether it will attack Philippines first or India or Taiwan . Occupying Taiwan is the most rewarding but most dangerous too . Philippines is least rewarding and least dangerous . India will be a difficult victory because like Ukraine , if west supports India with arms , Sino Indian war will drain out China completely and it will be the most pyrrhic victory or most likely a stalemate like seven year Iran Iraq war . Xi Jinping is in hurry and will make some costly mistake .
AUKUS , Japan, South Korea and Taiwan and ASEAN countries have to devise a strategy against Salami slicing methodology. Old grudges have to be forgotten . They must collectively raise a war chest of $ 200 billion in the next six years because it will never be a cheap or short war. India has to quickly buy more aeroplanes , submarines , mine sweepers and stockpile missiles and ammunition for at least a six month war both in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. It must build one year stock of food grain and fertilisers, medicines as well as have some secure crude oil supply . Andaman base must be finished quickly and more drinking water availability has to be ensured . We may have to feed a force of One lakh and provide full logistic support to USA . One isolated island with a full size airstrip may have to be given to AUKUS temporarily even if India does not join war directly in South China Sea. Terms of logistic support must be worked in advance . Indonesia, Malaysia , Singapore and Vietnam too must contribute fully for a collective defence and join in preparations with out waiting for a formal treaty.
An inventory of common weapons and training of personnel will be essential . All this must be done with out provoking China purely as a preparatory defensive measure.
Taiwan has to be armed heavily but only USA / EU can do it . EU has been devastated by Ukraine war and will not support another war with China . So the burden will be on USA only which will at least seek next twenty five years of sole superpower status. Like Japan , South Korea too must raise its defence budget and reduce dependence on USA . USA will not spend its money nor will provide its soldiers . So a defensive force of one hundred thousand soldiers with heavy weapons ,to be deputed at short notice , needs to be raised and trained quickly.
It must be remembered that the only way China can be controlled is by making any war unwinnable and too expensive for it .
World must wake up from its slumber . Ukraine was a western mistake , China is the real elephant in the room !
