Pakistan’s New Chinese Debt Trap Like Hambantota and Gwadar Ports : Railway Line ML 1 Modernisation at $6.8 Billion
Rajiv Upadhyay 
China and Pakistan are about to sign an agreement to modernise the Pakistan Railway line ML-1 of 1687 kms length with 174 stations, at an estimated cost of USD 6.8 Billion . Earlier the estimate was about USD 8.5 Billion dollar which has been reduced to 6 billion dollars recently .
Pakistan’s Main Railway line ML1 , from Karachi to Peshawar touching Lahore , Rawalpindi and Peshawar is the heart of Pakistan Railway which carries 75 % of freight and passenger traffic. Fifty percent of railway track is overaged and most of the freight wagons are 40 years old and barely 40 % of its locomotives are working.
Therefore there is no doubt that its Rehabilitation / modernisation of the railway is long overdue.
However like the empty Sri Lankan Hambantota port and totally wasteful Gwadar ports , this expenditure is also a Chinese debt trap and Pakistan will ultimately lose its most vital Railway Line like its airports , PIA ( to be sold ) , Steel Mill etc.
The immediate provocation is Railways loss of traffic share from 75 % in the year in 1950s to 4 % in 2011 . Passengers carried declined sharply from 60480 M in 2018 to 28400 M in 2021. Although freight has recovered as Pakistan imported huge quantity of coal which moved from ports by rail . However Pakistan railway losses were Rs 55 billion in 2022-23. By this modernisation Pakistan railway hopes to regain its market share and pay back the Chinese loan .
It looks so viable on paper but here is the catch . Pakistan Railway for last ten years or more has been running in loss as can be seen in graph. It will continue to run in loss. The Chinese loan of $ 6.8 billion can not be paid back from Railway Earnings . Pakistan is already has $ 130 billion debt . It has mortgaged its airports , highways etc . So neither the Pakistan Railway nor the nation can pay back this loan .Ultimately like Hambantota and Gwadar ports Chinese will take control of this jugular vein of Pakistan which will give China access to Afghanistan , Iran and Central Asia etc .
So are there any better alternatives ?
Yes there are !
The crisis in Pakistan Railway is largely due to non availability of diesel engines and to some extent wagons. Bulk of Chinese engines were non functional. A large number of trains were cancelled thus accentuating the traffic shortfall.
African landlocked countries like Zambia etc. used to earlier get their goods from South African ports and exported its copper ( 5 MT) by rail. Its rolling stock had very low availability. It retained South African locomotives and wagons and paid per diem charges on actual holding. This model , often called power by hour model is the best solution for Pakistan Railway . 
A pragmatic President Zardari had tried getting diesel locomotives from India, which can easily spare hundred locomotives and hundred wagons and passenger rakes.
However there were two fears
- In any war Pakistan will just seize Indian Rolling stock as it did in 1965.
In case of a big accident like Sukkur accident of 1990 , in which 307 people died , Pakistan will blame Indian Rolling stock and Indian maintenance staff will be criminally tried and punished even by death . So India needed a guaranty of no criminal prosecution or fine on consequential damage , in accidents for the rolling stock declared fit by PR authorities.
One hundred rakes with locomotives on daily hire rates are sufficient for meeting the current needs of Pakistan Railway at very low cost . The rest of the system can continue to run with patch repairs .
The massive expenditure on grade separation , cab signalling , doubling etc as envisaged in ML 1 upgradation proposal is just not essential till Pakistan comes out of the present economic crisis .135 trains on up and down line or 160 kmph train speed is wishful thinking for next twenty years keeping other economic priorities like Dams , canals etc .. So why do it with foreign loan jeopardising even the ownership of the crucial Railway line ML – 1?
India has helped Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in crisis . It can easily solve the present problems of Pakistan Railway . But as Prime Minister Modi said ‘ Blood and Water cannot flow together ‘ . Pakistan has to not only give up but also punish its terrorist groups and rogue intelligence agency staff guilty of Pulwama, Pathankot , Mumbai and Parliament attack. It ultimately is in Pakistan’s long term interest also. It must come out of Zia legacy of bleeding by hundred cuts .
If the Pakistan army realises that peace and good national reputation is an even greater need of Pakistan today , it can end this unnecessary feud with India . The next few generations of both the countries will thank the Generals with this rare courage and vision .
